qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[divs4ever]

I am overly pessimistic , and need a balance
I trust more the LIC managers than a super fund managers to be reactive etc..so they will handle my share of the CBA, bhp, etc shares I would not touch on my own and that portfolio part acts like my lemmings trend following shares.
Cash will not remain cash within the next 12 months but it is always very dangerous aka gambling to invest all in a point in time.you can be lucky, or wait 30y to recover.
That super portfolio will be Australian focussed relatively diversified and risk adverse

i understand the caution , i don't have a formal super fund , the LIC and ETF managers can handle some portfolio decisions , but i add/reduce ( or select new LICs and ETFs ) as i deem fit that way i can tweak from more conservative to more reactive is i see market value and direction ( i tend not to reduce the conservative LICs i either add more when they are unloved , or put new cash elsewhere )

please note i consider SOL and WES as LICs with a different strategy to most other LICs ( more 'hands on' than a straight portfolio manager )

cash ( and cash equivalents ) is always tricky , but brave of you to think you can park it better within 12 months

in my case maybe i can and maybe not , i have my own ' AVOID list ' but it is different from yours

where i am carefully selective is my international exposure , not all sovereign states are equal in my eyes , and some are changing rapidly

i tend not to make 'big buys ' ( for me ) with rare exceptions , i might park all the cash in a short time but might be multiple transactions even in the same stock , as i often buy the downtrend rather than wait at the bottom ( and sometimes take some profits in the mini rallies on the way down )

 

[divs4ever]

The mandatory super is a highly government influenced tool, I can not access it at will, rules changes nilly willy and gov are trying to force that money into hare brain money losing schemes of the day: lastly EV recharging network, 2 y ago would have been paper toilet or face masks factories.i try to get some control

yes that was a bonus for contrarians

 

[rcw1]

…. as i often buy the downtrend rather than wait at the bottom ( and sometimes take some profits in the mini rallies on the way down )

rcw1 buys on the rise and sells on the rise …
Labour intensive and has sone perils like selling way to early, but hey, you get that in the fast lane … rcw1 no longer gives that a second thought … onto the next trade …

@divs4ever question please if rcw1 may: do you hold for long??
Your posts seem to imply that … sorry if this is incorrect

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[divs4ever]

rcw1 buys on the rise and sells on the rise …
Labour intensive and has sone perils like selling way to early, but hey, you get that in the fast lane … rcw1 no longer gives that a second thought … onto the next trade …

@divs4ever question please if rcw1 may: do you hold for long??
Your posts seem to imply that … sorry if this is incorrect

Kind regards
rcw1

for long ??

that depends on the share , but yes the main aim is to hold some of that share for life

now some companies give me the hint they have lost the plot .. and are gone (AMP , IPL , LEI , ORG , BLD etc etc )

now in saying that if there is a very good reason i will sell to take an opportunity , for instance BKL ( Bllackmores ) was at a 'crazy price ' and WES was muddling along so i swapped each BKL ( ex. div. ) into three and a bit WES ( cum. div. ) .. looks clever , now but at the time it was a straight div. yield that made the compelling

and if i am in say 150% profit i often ( but not always ) sell 40% of the holding and let the other 60% keep going ( but the original investment cash goes back into the war-chest )

interestingly those i didn't reduce like that have been mostly taken over since , but that is fate

 

[divs4ever]

normally i buy on the slide ( and rarely on a pull-back in a rally ) and sell if i need to , or reduce into a rally ( at what i consider a 'fair price ' ) i usually have the cash well before the top of the rally ( but in saying that i have banked an acceptable profit )

my set-up isn't fast enough ( or reliable enough ) to make razor-sharp moves , even when watching the right share at the right time if have to be in there early and let the market come to me

for surgical moves you need a scalpel , and all i have is a hacksaw ( which sometimes is better , several little buys/sells instead of one precision cut )

 

[qldfrog]

So I have a dozen or so buys on the market.set at a reasonable SP based on the variation in the last month:
with the Christmas rally,only 2 orders: (paper silver and Asian ETF) were successfully, I believe most will have to wait for the post NY hangover.will check in a week or so

 

[qldfrog]

a little update and current status
so as discussed previously, I have had to change Super fund, managed to do the opening of a new account with Australian Super, transfer my super there, setup various options etc and lastly entered my orders
It took a good month to do all that, I missed the local xmas rally but when is the last time the frog has been lucky with financial investment
So current status:
a third managed by the super funds
39% purchased in the last weeks or a bit earlier for the money held in the better half fund
and 28% which are in cash but will be invested either in April, July for the staggered entries or when/if the target price is reached: I see WES, MQG,RIO and ARG not reasonably priced yet even within this overheated market
You may noticed I switched FMG for GRR as I have had reasonable success in the past with GRR vs the green unicorn of FMG;
And I added a few small caps: BOE/PDN as I have sadly no access to matching etf thru the Super Fund platform

Super fund managed	balanced		2%​
	TD		14%​
	AS high growth		2%​
	AS ind Diversified		2%​
	AS cash		14%​		Total super fund managed/cash
					33%​
Self managed	Gold etf		5%​
	Silver etf		4%​
	etpmag		3%​
	WDS		3%​
	BPT		5%​
	WHC		2%​
	GRR		2%​
	S32		2%​
	LYC		1%​
	PLS		2%​
	SOL		2%​
	BKW		2%​
First out of 3 entries	AFI		2%​
First out of 3 entries	vts		2%​
First out of 3 entries	ILC (asx20)		2%​
	uranium BOE/PDN		1%​
	IPL fertiliser		1%​
	IAA etf asia		2%​		Total purchased a/invested recently
					39%​
pending	WES		2%​
pending	MQG		2%​
pending	SGR		1%​
pending	etf india/SE asia ?		2%​
pending	RIO		2%​
dollar average april jul	ARG		3%​
dollar average april jul	AFI		3%​
dollar average april jul	VTS		3%​
dollar average april jul	VEU		3%​
dollar average april jul	ILC (asx20)		3%​
pending	ARG		2%​
pending	VEU		2%​
					Total pending (scheduled or not reached target price)
Total			100%​		28%​

 

[qldfrog]

I find it funny that this , in a way, mirrors Mr @Skate decision to go long investing recently;
Mine is just a regulation mandated investment that basic care required to be moved from one fund to another.

And so the opportunity to review the portfolio for long term investment
Timing was dictating by the wait between processes steps more than anything else
I believe i differ in having much more diversity, less individual risks and staggered entries as a rule when possible with packet sizes.
I do not like the overexposure to the ASX and AUD, the absence of real precious metal exposure (only paper worth...)
But
Me doing a Mr skate entry would guarantee a major crash and portfolio obliteration within a fortnight
Have all a great week end

 

[qldfrog]

Just a quick update of the invested long term super while we are still waiting for the farm to be sold;
From 20/12 to close today:
invested money (currently 51%, remainer in cash at 4.5%)
We have staggered entries till june , and so far returned 1.96%, ASX200 for that duration was up 1.765%
So good to outperformed slightly but last week saw a small fall

I truncated the total $ amount in that super fund for privacy reason

 

[qldfrog]

While waiting to restart systematic trading, I find it useful to track my investor (mandatory Super) portfolio and go for another invesment ramble:
I started a portfolio end of 23, missing sadly the Christmas rally as the account was not setup and provided in time.

Instead of just adding $ gains or loss which are of limited value and do not give you perspective a start at a base 100 just before Christmas when the account was founded
In perspective, the asx200 went from 7537 to 7773 friday or a 3.13% gain on that period.
Current super is 27% cash and the total self managed super investment (including TD and cash) is at 103.84 so beating the ASX200 while 27% cash.


So happy
But..Bitcoin...The story
I have held a few BTCs or a bit of..for a long while, trading it;
In September 2022, I purchased bits of BTC: price after cost:31k AUD per BTC
I decided to sell half of my small basket today and sold today at $105k AUD per BTC
Some very (lazy) gain indeed, not much work for reward and not bad for a 16 month ownership
I understand the story of quick wealth as before 2022:
in 2018, I was trying to buy 8 BTC at 5k or so and failed due to more important things...you know: work constraints while FIFO etc....
So I worked hard, missed the reward and am out of $800k...
Fair I would probably have sold half of these by now but still..what if ....ROL...

Why did I sell today? low expected taxation this year as we have no income;
Lowest trust even in our government and electorate
And it really seem BTC is a high tech proxy more than a Gold proxy as proven by the last few weeks.
Unsure what will happen, no one knows but I cashed up half my gains...

 

[farmerge]

While waiting to restart systematic trading, I find it useful to track my investor (mandatory Super) portfolio and go for another invesment ramble:
I started a portfolio end of 23, missing sadly the Christmas rally as the account was not setup and provided in time.

Instead of just adding $ gains or loss which are of limited value and do not give you perspective a start at a base 100 just before Christmas when the account was founded
In perspective, the asx200 went from 7537 to 7773 friday or a 3.13% gain on that period.
Current super is 27% cash and the total self managed super investment (including TD and cash) is at 103.84 so beating the ASX200 while 27% cash.
View attachment 174234

So happy
But..Bitcoin...The story
I have held a few BTCs or a bit of..for a long while, trading it;
In September 2022, I purchased bits of BTC: price after cost:31k AUD per BTC
I decided to sell half of my small basket today and sold today at $105k AUD per BTC
Some very (lazy) gain indeed, not much work for reward and not bad for a 16 month ownership
I understand the story of quick wealth as before 2022:
in 2018, I was trying to buy 8 BTC at 5k or so and failed due to more important things...you know: work constraints while FIFO etc....
So I worked hard, missed the reward and am out of $800k...
Fair I would probably have sold half of these by now but still..what if ....ROL...

Why did I sell today? low expected taxation this year as we have no income;
Lowest trust even in our government and electorate
And it really seem BTC is a high tech proxy more than a Gold proxy as proven by the last few weeks.
Unsure what will happen, no one knows but I cashed up half my gains...

Well Mr frog well may you say show me the money, well now you have got it. Great news.

 

[qldfrog]

Still no system..., but a kind of light bulb moment triggered by a french youtube video;(here for anyone fluent french:
)

Cash management:
like many here, I keep some of my coins in cash, some in bills under the mattress but most in accounts: day to day expenses, emergency funds, etc etc
Separately I am very aware of the following dangers, taken separately I try to reduce the risks:

1. Fiat currency depreciation,
2. inflation hit
3. Powers in charge able to seize assets, lock/restrict my own fund access
4. My money once in a bank is not mine anymore and I am at risk in case of bank failure
5. Banks are always winning: borrowing from a bank is far more expensive than their return on my investment

so Gold & Silver, RE, shares and I have my savings usually a few saving accounts and some Term deposits
Very common...
We all know that banks are making a killing using short term bonds (from their feds) returns with the money we give them for a pitiful return.
There is actually a solution for us, peons thanks to ETFs:
buy short term bonds ETF on the share market;
They will not be seized or locked in any way worse than your bank account, you get the full return (minus brokerage..but nowadays minimal and a very low etf fee)
Ideally, I would get the US short term bonds , but as this is my "cash" safety net, I do not want to have any currency risk and this is not a get rich play here
On the ASX, I have found the asx code BILL and asx code ISEC which seem to fit the bills.
monthly pay out, you can leave anytime and have a relatively smooth exit

So do I miss something?

 

[qldfrog]

Ok still no farm solde, agent probably wanted us to dispair and sell for a dime...
Preparing own RE site to tell things as they are ..and point on items agents "forget" as this would smash attraction of competing properties on their portfolio
anyway, so another great week for the more long term investment portfolio managed thru our super funds
ASX 200 since my self managed super start(20/12) +3.3%
This week my portfolio gains went from 3.84% to 4.21%:Good and thanks to PM still rising like mad
Still huge amount in cash roughly 25%
in chart (asx was not recorded weekly until mid march so the teeth:

A good week end ahead as long as it does not rain:
corner and gate posts for new internal paddock completed, farmer frog happy

 

[qldfrog]

one of the super had not updated portfolio yesterday, now even better gain of 4.58% overall ..feeling less depressed

 

[rcw1]

one of the super had not updated portfolio yesterday, now even better gain of 4.58% overall ..feeling less depressed

you probably need to spend some time with rcw1.... ha ha ha haha

 

[qldfrog]

you probably need to spend some time with rcw1.... ha ha ha haha

Just looking at the lost opportunities with our farm still for sale...
And we could share a nice Shiraz to drown our sorrows

 

[divs4ever]

Ok still no farm solde, agent probably wanted us to dispair and sell for a dime...

likely , ours even threw in a bid well under the reserve ( which wasn't accepted ) for the near city acreage

a new agent/agency is now engaged

 

[Chipp]

Just looking at the lost opportunities with our farm still for sale...
And we could share a nice Shiraz to drown our sorrows

There is always market opportunities so nothing is lost , that said hanging out for that extra 5% on a property sale if you can return multiples of that annually makes that decision easier fwiw . For me it always comes down to the numbers . Lots to consider atm though . Good luck with your sale . Curious to know what your destination is after sale ? I will be heading north to Whitsundays eventually after i sell my place although will be renting in Brisbane for a while due to circumstances . Nice penthouse on Bris river for a year or 2 not the worst . Riperian maybe

 

[qldfrog]

Fully aware but selling a farm is not exactly like selling a suburban house:
Believe me, if we have had any firm offer, it would have been considered.
We moved to a smaller acreage (15acres only) near Mapleton Yandina ...
Funny thing is our "new" small place would probably sell quickly and more than the farm now.
Better half does not want to consider moving back to farm...and sell new place as a flip....
But reason we are selling farm still there : family both sides living overseas and parents in the 80s and needing care ->we do expect numerous trips and long stay there .not compatible with a working farm..and no, you can not hire people to do the job ..would be a money pit.
In a word stuck

 

[divs4ever]

Fully aware but selling a farm is not exactly like selling a suburban house:
Believe me, if we have had any firm offer, it would have been considered.
We moved to a smaller acreage (15acres only) near Mapleton Yandina ...
Funny thing is our "new" small place would probably sell quickly and more than the farm now.
Better half does not want to consider moving back to farm...and sell new place as a flip....
But reason we are selling farm still there : family both sides living overseas and parents in the 80s and needing care ->we do expect numerous trips and long stay there .not compatible with a working farm..and no, you can not hire people to do the job ..would be a money pit.
In a word stuck

am not so sure the smaller place will sell that quickly if the buyer isn't nearly self-funding it all ( without needing a bank )
most banks are veering away from lending for rural acreages , for various reasons ( fire risk/flood risk/ yada yada yada )
but part of the issue is inexperienced staff , another is inferior materials ( or just unavailable materials )

interesting times coming ... i am sure robots will replace farm workers fairly efficiently ( sarcasm ) AI, GMO crops/livestock etc etc etc

all be packed in tight making each automated farm a disease breeding experiment ( and not a single Animal Activist complaining )