qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

qldfrog · 31 March 2023

another week with systems still in cash
The XNT went up 3.2% all good , kicking the ball and the populace in the guts
the three weekly are unchanged and remained 100% cash so underperformed
MOA, VWMA and Obelix unchanged $0 gain
daily US volatility not played..unchanged
daily ASX volatility:18% invested, $497 loss just below 0.93%
The PM surges helped the frog to add $5k this week to the portfolio so happy chap overall

qldfrog · 6 April 2023

This is a significant week for the frog as cash is needed for the purchase of a new PPOR
only 2 systems are maintained, with very reduced funding:
volatility daily on asx down to roughly $10k and closing soon,
MOA on roughly $25k and VWMA on $22k;
XNT went up 0.5% in this short week
The brokerage fees will be significant but for the sake of the experience, I prefer keeping these 2 weekly systemsopen until they go to full cash.... if they do or I can replenish them
so this week:
daily volatility asx: 18% invested (will not go higher) -0.2% or -$109
MOA : 70% invested +1.23% or +$325
VWMA : 96% invested -0.386% or -$372
so these systems lost $150 this week out of 55k invested..keeping cool
And the PM and currencies added 2.7k gain to the greatly reduced portfolio so not a bad week for the frog after liquidation of quite a few investor positions, a lot of brokerage, and a good week to reduce exposure
My exposure to the market and currencies is now trivial,remaining are some PM,Interest linked Oz bonds,and a bit of oil/gold companies

qldfrog · 14 April 2023

a week where I am slowly withdrawing cash..and not investing anymore
XNT went up 2% which is quite nice
daily volatility asx was a bugger as I did a human mistake costing the system $500+
The system is now back 80% cash, and will pause after a loss this week of $1290 (2.4%)
Would have been better without my human mistake...
As I doubt I will restart before the end of FY, that system will exit next week with a profit but disappointing

MOA: 43% invested, +$405 or +1.5%

VWMA: 49% invested, -$73 or -0.3%
a bit puzzled here
so systems lost -$965 not good even considering the human error of $500 as the market was good;
In any case, I am going cash and not reinvesting so that is twisting results.
overall the portfolio made 300$ after a massive sell to cash week.
Portfolio remaining is a few packets in systems and a few PM/inflation indexed bonds
I might pause the journal as it will soon be devoid of meaning until such time I can reinvest cash again.

Gringotts Bank · 14 April 2023

qldfrog said:
This is a significant week for the frog as cash is needed for the purchase of a new PPOR
only 2 systems are maintained, with very reduced funding:
volatility daily on asx down to roughly $10k and closing soon,
MOA on roughly $25k and VWMA on $22k;
XNT went up 0.5% in this short week
The brokerage fees will be significant but for the sake of the experience, I prefer keeping these 2 weekly systemsopen until they go to full cash.... if they do or I can replenish them
so this week:
daily volatility asx: 18% invested (will not go higher) -0.2% or -$109
MOA : 70% invested +1.23% or +$325
VWMA : 96% invested -0.386% or -$372
so these systems lost $150 this week out of 55k invested..keeping cool
And the PM and currencies added 2.7k gain to the greatly reduced portfolio so not a bad week for the frog after liquidation of quite a few investor positions, a lot of brokerage, and a good week to reduce exposure
My exposure to the market and currencies is now trivial,remaining are some PM,Interest linked Oz bonds,and a bit of oil/gold companies

Are you still moving to Tassie?

qldfrog · 14 April 2023

Gringotts Bank said:
Are you still moving to Tassie?

Nope.signed on a smaller acreage in the hinterland.need to sell the farmlet now.
And today our Bunning run included walk by beach, lunch in Mooloolaba Esplanade and driving back home thru green country ,hills and rainforest..hard to beat for a less than 1h drive to get some hardware ...
Have all a great weekend

qldfrog · 21 April 2023

This week saw more sells, and no buy even for systems keen to engage as I reduced sails ;-)
frog needs the $ into that new PPOR: until another property is sold, I will be very short of cash and will keep $ for daily expenses and emergencies , there is not crystal ball as when we will be able to sell our current place so we act carefully until done.
Farm should be on the Market next week
In the meantime, this thread will just pause and i will stop earning / losing $ from the systems which are reduced further and further ..I do not force sell but just let stalling and natural exits do the work
Hope you have had a great week and will have a great week end
Cheers

rcw1 · 21 April 2023

qldfrog said:
This week saw more sells, and no buy even for systems keen to engage as I reduced sails ;-)
frog needs the $ into that new PPOR: until another property is sold, I will be very short of cash and will keep $ for daily expenses and emergencies , there is not crystal ball as when we will be able to sell our current place so we act carefully until done.
Farm should be on the Market next week
In the meantime, this thread will just pause and i will stop earning / losing $ from the systems which are reduced further and further ..I do not force sell but just let stalling and natural exits do the work
Hope you have had a great week and will have a great week end
Cheers

Good evening qldfrog
Hoping everything is okay your end.
Selling one's digs and buying a new one and above all else the actual move can be quite stressful at times. Best thing is to count to 10 ha ha ha ha and breath .... then take the dog for a walk...

Have a very nice weekend qldfrog

Kind regards
rcw1

farmerge · 22 April 2023

qldfrog said:
This week saw more sells, and no buy even for systems keen to engage as I reduced sails ;-)
frog needs the $ into that new PPOR: until another property is sold, I will be very short of cash and will keep $ for daily expenses and emergencies , there is not crystal ball as when we will be able to sell our current place so we act carefully until done.
Farm should be on the Market next week
In the meantime, this thread will just pause and i will stop earning / losing $ from the systems which are reduced further and further ..I do not force sell but just let stalling and natural exits do the work
Hope you have had a great week and will have a great week end
Cheers

Good evening Mr Frog. Tread carefully and obviously spend wisely. May the God;s be with you.

qldfrog · 24 May 2023

Touching base:
Monday saw the last system sale and closure of vwma system
Vwma saw a loss ultimately in its short life.and I am still ahead in this FY overall but not by much.
Probably a loss since I started selling and not buying from April.
Took far too long to be on the market for the farm and getting our first visit today nearly 2 months after signing on new property.
Photoshoot delayed by nearly a week, then RE whole office gone for an award party in Sydney and then a funeral...
Just lucky the memory stick has not been chewed by the RE dog?
Used to that....I hate RE but crossing fingers this time will be different.bad start anyway and no cash to play with in systems

qldfrog · 23 December 2023

The interlude is still there , no money to play, farm still not sold..our market is limited..first real estate really botched the lot and we lost 4 months...much better now but need a contract.
But I am in an interesting situation.
Both better half and me ended in the same super funds following qsuper and sunsuper merging into ART.
Not something I like, furthermore restrictions are put, options reduced yet different provenance meant different investment options still and response to query took a week.
we decided to change.
Due to administrative issues, I discarded the SMSF option as we really want to spend more time travelling.
AustralianSuper(AS) was responsive and has good choice of self invest options with reasonable fees
End result: better half stays in ART : 1/3 overall super, I move to AS with the 2/3 left.
Now comes the question of where to invest these long term (not trading).
I will share in the next post what I intend to do in term of overall super portfolio.
We have both stopped working and are in our mid 50s.
Super has always been kept to the mandatory minimum (the reason we could stop work after Covid) and represents roughly 1/8 of our wealth so important but not ultra critical

qldfrog · 23 December 2023

TD	14%	total TD	14%
Gold etf	5%	total PM	12%
Silver etf	4%
WDS	3%	total energy	11%
BPT	5%
	0%
cash	18%	total cash	20%
NHC	2%	total mining	8%
RIO	3%
FMG	2%
S32	2%
LYC	1%
PLS	2%
WES	1%
MQG	2%	total finances	34%
SOL	2%
ARG/MLT/AFI 3*30k	15%
vts	5%
veu	5%
ilc (asx20)	5%
urnm	2%
etpmag	3%
phosphate?
	100%

qldfrog · 23 December 2023

note that the LIC investments, and ILC are planned to be done in 3 entries in december, april and august.
20% will remain in cash once done for further reinvestment as well as the TD amounts which will slowly expire.
I am looking at a phosphate exposure non BHP and am keen to hear feedbacks on obvious misses

rcw1 · 23 December 2023

qldfrog said:
note that the LIC investments, and ILC are planned to be done in 3 entries in december, april and august.
20% will remain in cash once done for further reinvestment as well as the TD amounts which will slowly expire.
I am looking at a phosphate exposure non BHP and am keen to hear feedbacks on obvious misses

Good morning qldfrog,
Hoping find you well. Shame about the farm not being sold yet. Hoping for you that a contract will appear sooner rather than later.

Just one question if I maybe so bold to inquire, do you have any intentions with respect to the cash?

Kind regards
rcw1

divs4ever · 23 December 2023

qldfrog said:
note that the LIC investments, and ILC are planned to be done in 3 entries in december, april and august.
20% will remain in cash once done for further reinvestment as well as the TD amounts which will slowly expire.
I am looking at a phosphate exposure non BHP and am keen to hear feedbacks on obvious misses

so are you looking at your ( stock ) ETFs ie VEU , VGS and ILC as 'insurance ' ??

i am guessing the BPT holding is a result of a good entry point rather than a high conviction in that stock

and i guess we could debate 'cash' weighting forever and a day , but interesting , am watching how the various active LIC managers handle their 'cash availability

now phosphate .. even ignoring the BHP fascination with phosphate i have found it disappointing and will probably avoid it in favor of the various metals ( and water )

qldfrog · 23 December 2023

rcw1 said:
Good morning qldfrog,
Hoping find you well. Shame about the farm not being sold yet. Hoping for you that a contract will appear sooner rather than later.

Just one question if I maybe so bold to inquire, do you have any intentions with respect to the cash?

Kind regards
rcw1

Return on cash is 5.5% which is good enough to wait for a crash mid next year and reinvest in the survivors, maybe as well OS via the etfs I have access to in AustralianSuper.
I understand it is losing vs inflation but less than a market crash

rcw1 · 23 December 2023

qldfrog said:
Return on cash is 5.5% which is good enough to wait for a crash mid next year and reinvest in the survivors, maybe as well OS via the etfs I have access to in AustralianSuper.
I understand it is losing vs inflation but less than a market crash

The reason rcw1 inquired ... have you thought about some physical ... gold using some of that cash...??

The point of holding physical is not to trade it. The point is to hold it as an insurance policy against the failure of fiat currencies @ducati916
Couldn't have said that better myself!! Spot on ... gold

Kind regards
rcw1

qldfrog · 23 December 2023

divs4ever said:
so are you looking at your ( stock ) ETFs ie VEU , VGS and ILC as 'insurance ' ??

i am guessing the BPT holding is a result of a good entry point rather than a high conviction in that stock

and i guess we could debate 'cash' weighting forever and a day , but interesting , am watching how the various active LIC managers handle their 'cash availability

now phosphate .. even ignoring the BHP fascination with phosphate i have found it disappointing and will probably avoid it in favor of the various metals ( and water )

I am overly pessimistic , and need a balance
I trust more the LIC managers than a super fund managers to be reactive etc..so they will handle my share of the CBA, bhp, etc shares I would not touch on my own and that portfolio part acts like my lemmings trend following shares.
Cash will not remain cash within the next 12 months but it is always very dangerous aka gambling to invest all in a point in time.you can be lucky, or wait 30y to recover.
That super portfolio will be Australian focussed relatively diversified and risk adverse

qldfrog · 23 December 2023

rcw1 said:
The reason rcw1 inquired ... have you thought about some physical ... gold using some of that cash...??

The point of holding physical is not to trade it. The point is to hold it as an insurance policy against the failure of fiat currencies @ducati916
Couldn't have said that better myself!! Spot on ... gold

Kind regards
rcw1

That part is managed outside super

qldfrog · 23 December 2023

qldfrog said:
That part is managed outside super

The mandatory super is a highly government influenced tool, I can not access it at will, rules changes nilly willy and gov are trying to force that money into hare brain money losing schemes of the day: lastly EV recharging network, 2 y ago would have been paper toilet or face masks factories.i try to get some control

rcw1 · 23 December 2023

qldfrog said:
The mandatory super is a highly government influenced tool, I can not access it at will, rules changes nilly willy and gov are trying to force that money into hare brain money losing schemes of the day: lastly EV recharging network, 2 y ago would have been paper toilet or face masks factories.i try to get some control

rcw1 cannot for life of me, give rcw1 cash to some p-ick to manage, just cannot do it... so. .. whilst still fit and healthy mentally and physically, rcw1 does it all... have kin that do most the heavy lifting now.. on the tools anyways, rcw1 expectation ha ha ha ha haha.. They can be difficult to manage though... at times... ha ha ha ha
Fit in or *&^% off... FIOFO ha ha ha ha ha pretty much

Kind regards
rcw1

qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

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