qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[Greynomad99]

interesting , both @peter2 and i mentionned it but while the market is chaoc, I have found one pretty good prediction:
my portfolio at close will be around 1% below its 2PM value;
was hitting like clockwork last week: small loss stable till lunch 2pm , increasing b closure;
yesterday
+$1.4k profit down to $400 loss roughly 1% of invested funds and today again
$2k to $2.4k profit closing to $500 profit for the day..
should we read something there?: is itsome ramp up for big players exit?
Anyone else experiencing this and what is the lesson to take from this behaviour?

This is with small caps play, my investment side is more stable with more ASX 200 stocks and kept the profits today

Just an observation but having trading patterns for several years and made good money at times, but that system hasn't really worked that well for me since the start of the year. I've put that down to the market being near its top and as such volatile due to investor nervousness - probably not helped by Covid.
Anyway, last year I set up a hypothetical medium-term trading portfolio of 10 mid/high cap shares diversified over sectors so that a few people I was helping to understand the market could see in real time the sort of buy, hold or fold and stop loss descisions that have to be made - something theory never really prepares one for. Buys were ideally price coming off a significant low and broken above a technical weekly downtrend Exit was a break of trend or a percentage fall below a higher weekly trough. While my own trading has been 3 steps forward and 2 back (sometimes 2 forward and 3 back), that portfolio (which only gets reviewed once a week - to make it easily manageable for those without a lot of time) is up over 20% in nine months. I've closed out 11 trades over that time. I've been so impressed by the performance of this system that I have adopted it for my own trading in recent months (although I still can't resist a really strong pattern I stumble over).
For the 2 days of this week that portfolio has put on 1% as against the XAO's 0.6% - which is consistent with its performance since inception.

 

[qldfrog]

Just an observation but having trading patterns for several years and made good money at times, but that system hasn't really worked that well for me since the start of the year. I've put that down to the market being near its top and as such volatile due to investor nervousness - probably not helped by Covid.
Anyway, last year I set up a hypothetical medium-term trading portfolio of 10 mid/high cap shares diversified over sectors so that a few people I was helping to understand the market could see in real time the sort of buy, hold or fold and stop loss descisions that have to be made - something theory never really prepares one for. Buys were ideally price coming off a significant low and broken above a technical weekly downtrend Exit was a break of trend or a percentage fall below a higher weekly trough. While my own trading has been 3 steps forward and 2 back (sometimes 2 forward and 3 back), that portfolio (which only gets reviewed once a week - to make it easily manageable for those without a lot of time) is up over 20% in nine months. I've closed out 11 trades over that time. I've been so impressed by the performance of this system that I have adopted it for my own trading in recent months (although I still can't resist a really strong pattern I stumble over).
For the 2 days of this week that portfolio has put on 1% as against the XAO's 0.6% - which is consistent with its performance since inception.

Yes, was more concerned about this small caps fall intraday,every day now for a while.
I do not subscribe to intraday data but i have ,from anecdotal evidences i agree, the feeling we have an intraday H in first session half ,followed by a low by close.

 

[Greynomad99]

Yes, was more concerned about this small caps fall intraday,every day now for a while.
I do not subscribe to intraday data but i have ,from anecdotal evidences i agree, the feeling we have an intraday H in first session half ,followed by a low by close.

The moved during the day often mirror the US futures trades which start to come out about midday our time. Small cap stock can be subject to manipulation as well. I never (well hardly ever) trade a stock under $0.10 or one where trade is illiquid (say less than $1M a day). I also do not day trade - too much effort for too little reward. It's OK if you are dealing in big amounts but $10,000 where you see a 2% gain is about $160 after brokerage - ie lose 25% of your profit in brokerage. Invest $100,000 and you only lose .02%. The $160 would be OK if you could do it 200 days of the year - but that never happens.

 

[Greynomad99]

Talking about systems I posted something on another forum a few weeks ago about breaks of downtrends being a strong indicator of higher prices. I also posted a list of shares that had broekn trend. It is interesting to see that most have moved up (some strongly) over this month. KGN is the exception, but no system is perfect. The table on the left of the chart below shows those moves.

 

[qldfrog]

what a week, brutal ups and down, not always linked to asx200 index..today was as good a day as yesterday was bad.
The dailies:
both volatility systems fully cash: they do not know where the market goes....
MOA started:sadly first week at a loss:
$-1.7k or -3.2% ->60% invested
Guppy:
$-0.8k or -1.8% ->73% invested

weekly:
QFSec:
$+3.5k or +5% ->80% invested

QFDuc
$+2.6k or +3.2% ->55% invested

overall:
$+3.6k or +1.1% overall from investment, currently 47% cash
So in a way a good week but as I said yesterday would have been just breakeven,
a bit disappointed by the dailies but this week is just the start for these .

 

[peter2]

Do I detect a slight hint of, surprise, surprise, optimism? Finally.

Very pleased that you reported a winning week. I was ready to lock you up but there's been far too much of that lately.

 

[qldfrog]

Do I detect a slight hint of, surprise, surprise, optimism? Finally.

Very pleased that you reported a winning week. I was ready to lock you up but there's been far too much of that lately.

Am already lockup,in a state now, not even a country..getting worse..we got 1 case in a week in qld so statistically 0.02 death a week or 1 death a year so we can all agree that qld need to close borders for its 5 millions inhabitants .Trading is the escape from madness and dictatorship?sad

More seriously, the swing moves are very abrupt, but this is due to the low caps i deal with: 10c to 10.5c is 5% and that is just the minimal step.
I actually missed on a couple hood yrades with the open buys overshooting my limits..this is what it is...

 

[qldfrog]

I like the sea of green in the early morning mist.....no copyright intended...

 

[qldfrog]

a great week:
probably the same for most systematic traders , I saw @peter2 did very well too

daily systems:
MOA: +$5.5k or +10.9% but remember we are starting from a series of bad returns so nothing to gloat about, but a good sign for the resurrected Flying Bat:
from to
Or so I hope;
DLGuppy: +$1.8 or +4.2% good

volatility:
ASX: +$0.5k or +1.06% fair
NYSE: +$0.2 or +1.32% fair

Weekly systems not as great as they hang onto some laggards:
QFSec +$1.2k or +1.6% fully invested
QFDuc disappointing +$0.3k or +0.3% currently 73% invested


Overall
mostly invested 7% cash only..
Dangerous in September but this is what it is:
+$9.5k or +2.9% vs XNT of just below1%

I missed quite a few entries in this week which has seen a lot of good days for juniors and small caps, with huge intra days variations
Give me more like that, my investor conservative portfolio, as usual balanced back the Frog overall score but still nicely positive for the week
but a lot to climb to be back positive for the FY so far

 

[Warr87]

great results mate. i checked mine tonight and i was a little shocked (I hadn't checked it all week). lets hope everyone here did so well!

 

[qldfrog]

EOD check:
EGL yeahhhh
ID8 outch
Nothing refined today,.major win or big losses on the packets

 

[qldfrog]

red day today (-1.7% on the systems), dailies are now mostly cash but weekly systems getting a beating.
all last week profit are gone and the investor portfolio fell as well so huge loss

 

[qldfrog]

red day today (-1.7% on the systems), dailies are now mostly cash but weekly systems getting a beating.
all last week profit are gone and the investor portfolio fell as well so huge loss

The real bugger is that , as usual at 2pm, i was just down 1/10th of the final loss, with actual positive systems...ah well
Not really a surprise... September and long awaited crash..not that this is the one..i have no crystal ball

 

[qldfrog]

What a week.....
yesterday was my biggest portfolio fall ever while today was my highest gain ever and by much on the systems..above +5% today..waooohh not for the faint hearts
the dailies:
they obviously sold off:
but kept much of the gain of the exceptional previous week:
Mother of All Flying Bat:
-$1.9k or -3.3% 90% cash tonight
Guppy:
-$1.3k or -2.88% 85% cash tonight
volatility dailies did not like it
vol US: -$0.4k or -2.49% back to cash
vol ASX: -$1.6k or -3.26% back to cash

the weekly did VERY well:
QF Sector: +$4.3k or 5.73%, fully invested and nearly gained back all of its initial loss since started in june
QF Duc: +0.6k or +0.7%

overall -$300 this week or -0.1%, now 50% cash
Just 300 to be positive..but CXO share purchase plan which was acquired via the system but that I do not count as part of this was sold today for $474 profit
so a positive week....
@peter2..I am VERY happy...

 

[Warr87]

I think, just like you, I was slightly negative this week for all of my systems. Today wasn't bad, yesterday was bad. but an interesting week. I'm surprised my daily wasn't triggered for a few sells given some of the volatile days.

 

[Warr87]

My crypto/commodities was an interesting one this week. beginning of the week was strong, i've been flat for a while (maybe 1-2 months,can't remember), and then everything had some sudden falls. got whipasawed on a few trades too. a few quick loses with false breakouts. but at least its not hemorrhaging money hahaha. it seems the monthly is the most intune with the market, while everything else is relatively flat.

oh well.still an interesting ride, lol.

 

[frugal.rock]

Good to see a good week for you Mr Frog. ????
Hopefully it keeps up.
It's harsh when montecarlo odds go against you continously.
I can imagine someone entering the market at the start of your bad run would probably be out of the market with a near blown account by now.

I'm up about 2.5% this week for this portfolio.
Chart shows last month.

Other portfolio is slightly larger value and was generally flattish thanks this week, thanks to yesterday.
Otherwise, it's been running slightly better than this chart shown portfolio.


I dislike losing profits when it's been hard work attaining it.
For me, open profit loss usually occurs when I don't have my eye on the ball as other matters (family mostly) are consuming my attention.
Hope all have a good weekend, in lockdown or not.
Cheers

 

[qldfrog]

Good to see a good week for you Mr Frog. ????
Hopefully it keeps up.
It's harsh when montecarlo odds go against you continously.
I can imagine someone entering the market at the start of your bad run would probably be out of the market with a near blown account by now.

I'm up about 2.5% this week for this portfolio.
Chart shows last month.

Other portfolio is slightly larger value and was generally flattish thanks this week, thanks to yesterday.
Otherwise, it's been running slightly better than this chart shown portfolio.

View attachment 130158
I dislike losing profits when it's been hard work attaining it.
For me, open profit loss usually occurs when I don't have my eye on the ball as other matters (family mostly) are consuming my attention.
Hope all have a good weekend, in lockdown or not.
Cheers

When I did a significant rework on the systems, i purposedly increased dd to favour actual net profit in some of these systems.
More agressive but quicker in/out in backtests .Since, i have been able to actually see the difference in the day to day tracking with volatility and gain.hopefully, will go to plan.
The systems are still at an overall loss since start of FY.
The 2 older volatility plays are significantly underperforming/losing money since July whereas they were very good stable performer in a more stable environment..the paradox.
They should have thrived on this week.
Probably time to give them a bit of a check.
As i follow other threads on ASF, the very satisfying thing is that my systems very often are detecting and into the tickers breaking out or making significant move.
the exits not always ideal..
But good to see reward vs effort.
As we all know here, there is no fairness, reward for work in share trading but it is good when efforts get returns.
Obviously, next week could see me losing 30k and questionning my very existantial being. ....

 

[qldfrog]

Nice progress today, will ensure more buffer for the next fall.let it roll..

 

[Warr87]

I had a weird one today. Monthly and weekly up (weekly also shed a number of positions due to index down filter). Daily down (its own index down filter also on), Crypto/commodities continue to go down. Overall, just a weird time with mix results among the differing timelines. From my own trading, it seems the longer timeframes are in step, while the shorter timeframes are having a much harder time.