qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[qldfrog]

Just a quick check my qfduc system went from 95k to 97.5k yesterday night, it had only 12 out of 20 positions so basically 60pc invested
Reading @over9k posts in the last weeks, i thought the market was crashing but it seems there is still money to be made and the trend was intact last week. Will be interesting to get back on the computer and screens next Friday

 

[over9k]

Nah frog remember how I said it was 2-3 weeks away, about the end of the month as it takes 2-3 weeks for infection spread to actually hit the data?

Lots of ugly virus data over the weekend so far and another day to go yet. Employment/jobs data is due on the 3rd of july too and apparently the last batch was miscalculated/overestimated by about four percentage points, so if that's true, then the data on the 3rd is going to be significantly worse.

We'll get chop for a bit now as the bad virus data vs better economic data fight with each other, but the virus data's then going to get worse, and worse, and worse...

The hard part is predicting fed stimulus, as they've already told us we're going to get another batch, just not when we'll get it. Hell, there might even be an additional round.

 

[qldfrog]

Of course there will be another round of Fed money.
But while i would be very reluctant to invest..looking years ahead,
we should resist the temptation not to trade.
Get out of news feed, just analyse numbers is my view.
I hold no truth, am often wrong but far less often now than when i was younger.i also never assume anymore that i am right or lock myself in a position.
Only idiots never change position, or politicians..the dreaded back down..or wisdom
But risk management is key we all agree..just different views on what's involved

 

[over9k]

This is my fundamental disagreement with ducati - he thinks virus data news is not relevant. We've seen three large and fast slumps straight after three infection spikes.

It is my opinion that people are ignoring this to their peril.

 

[MovingAverage]

This is my fundamental disagreement with ducati - he thinks virus data news is not relevant. We've seen three large and fast slumps straight after three infection spikes.

It is my opinion that people are ignoring this to their peril.

I think you raise a good point, but I do wonder whether the market is getting a little numb and used to the Corona news given we have been bombard with it 24/7 since Feb. No doubt the market will react to news of new outbreaks but I wonder whether those reactions will be as dramatic as that which we experienced in Feb/March. Who knows, time will tell I guess.

 

[over9k]

Sure - but we're already seeing the reimposition of lockdowns (beijing, some parts of usa, victoria, all in response to jumps in infections), just as predicted.

Even if you ignore the data per se, the lockdowns which come as a result of it are all bad for markets. However, we're now seeing BOTH.

 

[qldfrog]

Look at money flow in November,
The virus is a pretext, the black swan revealing the issues.
That is done, the rest is non relevant

 

[MovingAverage]

must admit i was a little surprised how the market responded to the unemployment numbers during the week. the market had a reasonable rebound at 11.30 when the numbers were released. makes me wonder whether the market is already factoring in more bad news. must admit, when it comes to trying to rationalise the market at the moment i do favour the TINE theory...There Is Nothing Else to invest in at the moment so maybe that's why the money keeps flowing in.

 

[over9k]

Well there *was* supposed to be an economic boom and there's certainly a lot of pent up demand now. Everyone are trying to make sure they don't miss the boat, but the boat keeps getting delayed.

 

[qldfrog]

Do not always focus on your own experience country
I can tell you for sure than France Italy Spain...so we are talking 100000 deaths..not 100, and well aware of the dangers ,restarting and people are actually fed up with the never ending scare tactics.was justified 3 m ago, not now
Too many while tgey have witnessed deaths have mostly witnesses getting sick and back healthy
You do not destroy a nation for a 1pc death rate.
I believe your feeling and the way we in Australia are presented the issue is only possible due to the absence of knowledge.
That absence of knowledge was general 4 months ago, and extreme measures justified.
This is not the case for who wants to know today.
After we have political games at play..
The economic impact is and will be severe even with a restart but if people are ready to buy qantas, flt or cruise company now, it will only improve with the future

 

[over9k]

I own QAN, WEB, AIA.

 

[qldfrog]

I own QAN, WEB, AIA.

As i said...

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I own QAN, WEB, AIA.

There is no fundamental justification to own QAN, WEB or AIA; that I can see.

 

[ducati916]

must admit i was a little surprised how the market responded to the unemployment numbers during the week. the market had a reasonable rebound at 11.30 when the numbers were released. makes me wonder whether the market is already factoring in more bad news. must admit, when it comes to trying to rationalise the market at the moment i do favour the TINE theory...There Is Nothing Else to invest in at the moment so maybe that's why the money keeps flowing in.

The market is more interested in BRAIN (Biotechnology, Robotics, AI and Nanotechnology). So plenty to invest in.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

There is no fundamental justification to own QAN, WEB or AIA; that I can see.

AU air travel will pick up (has picked up) on account of AU actually containing the virus and the sheer size of this country. It won't be anywhere near it was, but it'll be there.

I bought QAN @ 3.40 for example.

 

[MovingAverage]

AU air travel will pick up (has picked up) on account of AU actually containing the virus and the sheer size of this country. It won't be anywhere near it was, but it'll be there.

I bought QAN @ 3.40 for example.

It will pick up--no doubt about that. The question is when? QAN recently announced no international flights until at least Oct and domestic flights have ground to a hault. The thing I wonder is just how long QAN can hang in there until things genuinely start to improve--they must be really burning through cash at the moment.

 

[Warr87]

It will pick up--no doubt about that. The question is when? QAN recently announced no international flights until at least Oct and domestic flights have ground to a hault. The thing I wonder is just how long QAN can hang in there until things genuinely start to improve.

I think if you are going to buy and hold on it then maybe. I personally would rather move my money in and out of what is working now.

Good be a good value buy for a long term investor but too long term for me tbh.

 

[over9k]

They're fine as long(er) positions. There's going to be a hell of a lot of chop for a while yet - all good opportunities to buy.

New mask factories online in august - once the supply of masks is overwhelming/in no doubt, then we'll all be able to wear masks like putting shoes on, and virus spread will drop massively. Until then, things are just going to be choppy AF as the reopening stuff plays tug of war with virus data.

I absolutely agree that they are not short positions though - I'm buying in the dips for long positions, and they're only going to be about 15% of my portfolio, so I'm certainly not betting the farm on it.

Boeing is the big travel related one I'm hanging out to buy back into, and that's got plenty of melt to go yet. I bought at 125 & 180, sold at 190. In the meantime, everything's parked in the stay at home stocks - zoom, paypal, ebay, cisco, amazon, skyworks, nvidia, facbeook, crowdstrike, and a couple of others I can't remember.

Additionally, I'm waiting to buy into pharmaceuticals like pfizer (which still has plenty to drop yet) as well as THO & WGO, and also expecting a further drop in the mining companies as I'm expecting more virus breakouts in china so that'll be another great dip to buy into long too.

Simple demographics of the baby boomers dictates a big spike in healthcare and caravans once the boomers are actually able to leave the house properly. Same actually goes with all the travel stuff, but I can't see cruise ships getting filled until there's a vaccine - very different thing to driving around in your own personal atmosphere in a motorhome or what have you.

I wouldn't touch the U.S based airlines and travel stocks with a bargepole, but aus has actually contained the virus and its sheer size necessitates a certain amount of air travel, so things are a little different here.

 

[qldfrog]

OK weekly vs daily:
this is a real figures real money investment for 2 comparable systems, obviously with differently tuned parameters but working on the same concepts; both include volatily
(so the Duc reference in the name as Duc posts triggered my use of this indicator)

weekly 01/05 to 19/06
QFDuc started 1/05/2020
Total invested $ 90,009.85
end portfolio value $ 97,482.09
Profit $ 7,472.24
Nb max positions 20
Return since start 8%
Annual return so far 56%
Average per week: 934.02975


Daily equivalent
18/05 to 19/06 (note the fortnight delay paper checking etc so started a fortnight later)
Total invested $ 50,000.00
Current portfolio value $56,314.02
Profit $6,314.02
Nb max positions 12
Return since 18/05 12.63%
Annual return so far 125%
Average per week: $1262

so basically: daily with just above half the invested capital is returning nearly 50% more
There is a lot more work stress involved; I will only carry on this to leverage the high volatility period


My daily system purely using volatility and not much else is even better, much smaller bet as i would not bet the house on it:

Start 25/05/2020, end 16/06/2020
Total invested $ 20,000.00
End portfolio value $25,071.96
Profit $5,071.96
Return since 25/05 25%
Annual return so far 309%
I will restart the daily systems slowly today if I can most probably tomorrow as I just cam eback yesterday
There is a bit of juggling to do with order pre market open, updating past data etc
Daily is not for the faint hearted even if daily for me is just a once a day update and check before entering orders.
There is no way I woud spend my day/night in front of a scrreen, this becomes a job and no thanks at this stage of my life

 

[qldfrog]

forgot to add:
daily QFDuc vs XNT: notice the better than index return

none of the weekly including Skate's Action are able to beat the XNT index on these periods
see below

Food for thoughts....