Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

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ok the result of the tests running on paper (excel) the explore between 1/07/17 to 30/06/18
I end up with
on 30/6/18 after a year:

cash 5010.83 , 19 shares lot still invested
portfolio value 148682.3
total= 153693.13
so 53pc vs 172900 or 72.9pc
This happens as there are times where I did not have the cash to actually do the recommended buy
I kept my $100 000 as initial amount and did not lend money, trying to put myself in the shoes of the trader.
Still a very good result
Keep trucking
 
Yep still a great result.
How does the equity curve compare?
Do you still have that big rise Aug-Oct and then relatively flat until may
 
I did not get the detail for the equity curve, I just did the +/- of shares and remaining cash.
The system was ramping up slowly, fully invested in 20 shares by the 4/9/2017
staying in, then in feb/march going between 17 and 20 shares based on weeks and offloading a lot in april down to only 11 positions by 5/05 before investing again up to 19 position by mid june 2018
It would be more work, or more exactly a different approach to get the data
I think I should build a portfolio, add/remove each week and print its value so that I could get the equity curve, DD etc
I just wanted initially to ensure the system was doable, and it raised the question:
if you have 7k in the bank in the weekend, and 2 positions to fill based on explore, how do you do it, do you put 3.5 in each ,do you only take 1, if your portfolio total value is now 193000 so 200k with the cash , should you buy 2x10k but you only have 7k in the bank..a lot of practical issues, I will try to analyse the backtest to understand the rules applied by AB
 
As for today:
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $ 60,982.52
Nb of active positions 8
Nb max position 20
Current portfolio value $ 100,747.26
Return since 25/02 0.75%
purchase value per position 5037.363
Invested percentage 39%

We have lost in the last week:(
 
Hi.

whilst I applaud your sharing of the system, not a single share I have ever owned that you have purchased in 35 years in the ASX. In short, a technical system alone v one that mixes fundamentals to even select with strict criteria a group of say 30 stocks you do trade I have found better. For 20 odd years and 10 live I shared my ideas on a thread at another place. The list of selections had to first be VALUE or high value fundamentally.

Without that very strict criteria, of selecting stocks that make money, or are close to it, or have extreme underlying value, the exercise of following a stock based upon a chart movement or share movement is a recipe for disaster. Having had that discussion with many, over many years, its like a Muslim trying to convert someone of the Jewish faith. A fundamental based value person, who is using a technical based enter and exit or for me a larger filter, that being the ASX 200 as it hits highs and lows, it cycles, and reaches a high, peaks, then retreats and hits a low. A normal cycle and without that overall filter along with a filter so your not buying rubbish which is technically breaking a defined chart or trading patter, your again lost.

In that, the ASX bottomed in Dec about 12% away from where it is. Even a blind person with a chart can see that. The only two filters of the overall market one needs to care about is the HIGH or the LOW, and is it going up or down. Now whilst at ASX 6,200 plus it MAY go higher, it is doubtful. In an UP market 90% plus of stocks go UP, in a down one, the opposite. Its rare for any stock to ignore the correction and in fact even the bigger stocks the biggest gainers over a period of time in a correction quite normally will go down FAR far far more than the market.

Some of the stocks say pre 2008 such as CSL I shared and miners and oilers, in an 8% overall market correction tended to go down 15% even 20% yet over time, they were the biggest gainers overall. I was for example bullish OIL pre 2008 and so to coalers, until all my stocks were eventually taken over, but the highs and lows were extreme, and whilst markets pre 2008 had a very good cycle and a correction of 8% 10% 15% or more before resuming their merry rally, post say 2010 its a lessor case. It is still for me, essential to enter when the index is DOWN, not up and when people hate stocks verse the love affair.

Other on actually pulling a company fundamentally to bits prevents buying such atrocities that go bust on the main. Some stocks, say pick one that has gone broke and I am sure technically, at some stage even extended stages they technically looked great, but were crooks, utterly worthless and even a casual look at what they did their hopes of ever making a profit were close to zero. People are attracted to the mad gamble and I have stopped on the main trying to stop or even educate. That said, one I did, or tried to, a technical guy, loved the TAS and EDE and a few others that since I did care a bit about him, knew him, looked at them and went they are so unlikely to ever prove to be of value they should have a biohazard sign around their necks. Like everyone I look for the next good thing, but with very strict fundamental signs. Now time takes care of most things and for most rubbish its sent to the bin, and in say the case of EDE and TAS and so on, similar stocks, it breaks and breaks hard UP, as it did, but the close examination of accounts, costs and in these two cases an insane fee structure to a group of lawyer more than say the COE of a company managing 50 billion plus is what they are paying themselves verses income less than 1% ... hence its not hard to call it what it is.

Good luck, and I might add, bigger stocks, whilst not guaranteeing success or in fact anything, being able to identify true and extreme value longer term, say in the case of CSL or even BHP at sub $20 and overvaluation up near $50 for BHP makes more. Buying say a $3- or $1 stock such as MFG and less than 10 years latter its $36- is what it is.

Take care and good luck
Mark K
 
Bought at open this morning
EQT : 187 @ 26.78 total cost inc brokerage:$5017.86
MYR: 10279 @ 0.465 total cost inc brokerage:$4789.74
Following the system..Keep testing keep improving:)
Myer not a stock I thought I would ever buy!!!!
 
and EQTwas going ex dividend today, I so have lost the dividend amount yet I am nearly sure I checked on Friday when ordering and it was not marked clearly as ex div..
Good lesson, next time check the whole announcement thread
Keep learning
 
Had a bit more time home staying away from the heat today and refined mostly the exit:
Should definitively have bought AMI and JIN at the beginning of last month, but ok for my signal since.
DD can still be brutal but system so far going OK gain of 1.84% since 25/02 on 51k invested
per comparison XAO (6260-6241.9)/6241.9 gain of 0.2% but obviously not statistically meaningful..
 
I could not resist I bought AMI again at.92 on the open, will probably regret it but if I get JIN back too, then I will be in sync for a start on the 1/02/2019.
I should probably abstain, does not really make sense let's wait tomorrow night for the next signals...
 
JIN purchased yesterday: 423 @11.890 + $ 10 commission =$5039.47
I am now in full sync for a 1/02/2019 trading start while I only started on the 25/02

No order for Monday.

Backtest system would have a profit of $5339.66.
Current real profit with the delayed start is:2,260.24

Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $41,126.18
Current portfolio value $ 102,260.24
Profit $ 2,260.24
Nb of active positions 12
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 2.26%
purchase value per position 5140.7725
Invested percentage 60%

Happy trucking along..$1500 paper profit in the week on 60k invested..happy..need to build a buffer for the inevitable DD
 
qldfrog said:
heavy losses on the NHC results
Down 20% from buying price in 2 days
Click to expand...

Sometimes your just going to get clubbed nothing you can do about it and your money management
means its no big deal.

The way some stocks have been behaving lately with results i have been exiting beforehand
as it doesn't seem worth it even if you get left behind.
 
The beauty of the system is i let it do its run
I would never have bought nhc after the chinese embargo, hta or myer for structural reason yet myer went up...
The whole purpose of the system is to get beyond my own failing and always too early perception.so i let it run
And yes not a biggy in the scale of even just this portfolio
 
One order for Monday.

Backtest system would have a profit of $5306
a bit of a loss :around 250$ last week;Thanks to NHC which plunged by $1000
Current real profit with the delayed start is:$2,014.43
Start 25/02/2019
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $41,126.18
Current portfolio value $ 102,014.43
Profit $ 2,014.43
Nb of active positions 12
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 2.01% Annualised return so far 26%
purchase value per position 5140.7725
Invested percentage 60%
 
I understand why you're referring to the theoretical back test results, but it seems to me that by mentioning them each week may make you feel like you're chasing. You started when you could and the theoretical perfect application of the system should also start at the same time.

It seems to me that you've done a good job of sticking to the system so far, so the comparison with a perfect application of the system should be very good. Monitoring your performance in this way will indicate when you've overridden or ignored the system and is important.

It's likely that you understand the difference far better than the readers and if you don't feel like you are chasing then carry on.
 
I may not need to add these in my weekly report indeed
I run both explore and backtest at the end of the work the backtest as a check that i am indeed following my system wo error but it is true that the delta should remain constant within the slight error produced by packet size which differ slightly based on opening price or thing like
us marketmark crashed i might do my purchase at last close not close plus 2pc...tomorrow
 
Horrible week for the system:
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $35,908.93
Current portfolio value $ 99,540.50
Profit -$ 459.50
Nb of active positions 13
Nb max position 20 Annual return so far -5%
Return since 25/02 -0.46%
Invested percentage 64%
We lost 2.5k in the last week..outch, and results are below the XAO for the first time:
upload_2019-3-29_17-46-17.png
 

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