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Hmmm, reviewing this they are more similar than I first thought. Must have had a few sherberts under the belt. QCGs rise has been obviously sharper however, and would be subject to a sharper correction perhaps. Might have already had that now, looks to have bounced well, and more convincingly than AOE which still looks vulnerable IMO.Thanks for the analysis Kennas. Interesting that despite the comparitive trend line with AOE you are of the opinion they are on their own paths. Goes to show how little i know as i thought they were almost exact replicas.
Well - finally broke above the $3.30 mark (closed $3.35) with OK volumes. Now it's in blue sky territory it'll be interesting to see where this ends its run.
malachii
Yep - she's really opening up a gap over AOE now - they've been tracking closely for so long now....
Interesting goings on pre-trade today...
there were 3 orders in - total of about 12k shares - at $3.69!! More than 20c above yesterdays close....now these orders were removedsometime just before first QGC trade for the day. QGC opened at $3.50...
Now I've seen this kind of thing regularly with a number of stocks and recently with QGC.... ie High bids placed in pre-trade - then withdrawn before trading starts.
Would anyone care to comment... is this attempted manipulation?? Or just idiots at work??
Anyway ... it's no reflection on the quality of the share - stunning steady performance over years... gotta love QGC. Still my best share
Another one to add to the list is what appears to be the imminent formation of a global gas cartel. It's likely to be similar to OPEC but with a greater share of both gas reserves and production than OPEC has with oil.Hi All,
I have researching the QGC - Queensland Gas Company for a little while now.
Seems to me this company has some fantastic assets and a good platform for growth in an industry that I think will have alot of growth in the coming years.
Has anyone else got any thoughts on this company.
Basically it is a producer with massive reserves of Coal seam methane gas.
Coal seam methane is used in much the same way the our dwindling supply of natural gas is used, they are feeding the gas into the grid and are also building a 140MW power plant in partnership with the ANZ bank which they will feed with there own gas.
with some big issues coming into the future suchas Peaking oil supply and global warming I think that gas producers should do well.
UK's BG Group has taken a 20% stake in QGC ($596 million). Trying to post a link but it didn't work.
Are either AOE or QGC paying dividends yet,
AOE seems to be a bargin at the moment, and I like the facvt that it has international exposure.
Get ready for a re rating. Looking through the information at hand QGC will have to be re rated on the strength of the latest announcement with BG Group.
Once QGC are selling off shore they can earn twice the revenue for their product based on current LNG prices,
Currently they have 1,327 PJ of 2p and another 3,116 PJ of 3p (as per certified reserve upgrade in December 2007).
They should at least be re rated on the percentage they will be selling via BG. That is a hefty number.
BG gas sales project's first year of operation, Queensland Gas's earnings EBITDA could exceed A$800 million.
QGC's share of revenue from the project (over a 20 yr timeline) should be about $25 billion. What is the current market cap of QGC? $2.2b at a share price of $3.30 (as per 2007 annual report). Now that is a low PE and why it will be re rated.
Add to these numbers everything else QGC are doing such as AGL. Incitec Pivot, the QGC power station, Pipleline into the national electricity grid just to name a few and you will see where i am coming from.
The deal
Value approx A$870 million, made up via
A$250 million to buy in at $3.07 per share (new shares)
A$415 million for the interest in Queensland Gas's coal seam gas acreage
A$207 million for a further 10 percent share of the acreage once the LNG project is approved or once Queensland Gas firms up 7,000 petajoules (6.6 trillion cubic feet) of reserves.
Key to this is proving up the resources however there appears to be little doubt they are there.
Re rating imminent
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