QGC - Queenland Gas Company

[TheAbyss]

TCW offer is a big challenge for AGL. AGl need to reevaluate if they want part of QGC. First the Santos offer now TCW both +$1.50 valuations. The ACCC wont stop this one so they AGL will need to revise or leave the table.

Hope you increased your holding this morning at the silly prices they were at. I topped up at $1.30

 

[Dukey]

Nice to see something green in a sea of RED today!!!

Dunno anything about TCW - apart from　whats in the offer statement.
They sound like a global player - does anybody have the lowdown on this mob??

 

[TheAbyss]

Given the rest of my portfolio is a sea of red I will spend tonight reading up on TCW.

 

[Dukey]

A little background on TCW`s energy & Infrastructure group.

http://www.acore.org/pdfs/013_Daly_Brian.pdf

 

[laurie]

But they said we can have script instead of cash so where are they listed

cheers laurie

 

[TheAbyss]

A day in the life of a QGC shareholder -

Earlier today - QGC - Reject US bid
Now - AGL revised offer bid is now $1.60 per share
Plus a tender buy back at $1.52 if you want it
Also they re affirmed their reserves upgrade from yesterday

QGC will look after its shareholders in my opinion.

 

[chops_a_must]

A day in the life of a QGC shareholder -

Earlier today - QGC - Reject US bid
Now - AGL revised offer bid is now $1.60 per share
Plus a tender buy back at $1.52 if you want it
Also they re affirmed their reserves upgrade from yesterday

QGC will look after its shareholders in my opinion.

It just seemed strange to me that they were prepared to accept a bid of 1.44 over a bid of 1.51+. Why are they so keen on AGL regardless of other bids? It must be asked.

 

[Dukey]

Maybe they are wary of international control/influence??

- just a thought.

 

[Aussiejeff]

It just seemed strange to me that they were prepared to accept a bid of 1.44 over a bid of 1.51+. Why are they so keen on AGL regardless of other bids? It must be asked.

Maybe AGL's guaranteed 20 year supply contract as part of the deal is an attraction in itself?

AJ

 

[TheAbyss]

It just seemed strange to me that they were prepared to accept a bid of 1.44 over a bid of 1.51+. Why are they so keen on AGL regardless of other bids? It must be asked.

The AGL offer is for 27.5% of QGC which gives the current board a level of autonomy that allows them to continue their current projects without to much interference. The Santos and TWS offers were both full TO's.

That is why the Santos "New QGC" was a winner if allowed to proceed by the ACCC. The AGL offer gives the board what they want plus increases value for shareholders and the company in addition to guaranteeing a market for their product.

All my own opinion based on being a holder for a few years now.

 

[Dukey]

Abyss: (sorry my quote button is playing up)...

It appears from the directors address at the EGM that this (abyss's previous post) is pretty much the case and it makes sense the way they put it.
Personally - I would rather keep a healthy stake in QGC cause I think they will produce the goods for some time to come and we shareholders will reap the benefits long into the future. If TCW took the lot - we would make a quick buck but miss out on the bigger future $$$ (IMHO). Of course we can still sell anytime if need be...

- dukey.

 

[TheAbyss]

Abyss: (sorry my quote button is playing up)...

It appears from the directors address at the EGM that this (abyss's previous post) is pretty much the case and it makes sense the way they put it.
Personally - I would rather keep a healthy stake in QGC cause I think they will produce the goods for some time to come and we shareholders will reap the benefits long into the future. If TCW took the lot - we would make a quick buck but miss out on the bigger future $$$ (IMHO). Of course we can still sell anytime if need be...

- dukey.

I agree 100% Dukey. So long as Richard Cottee is at the helm i am not even considering selling.

 

[chops_a_must]

Personally - I would rather keep a healthy stake in QGC cause I think they will produce the goods for some time to come and we shareholders will reap the benefits long into the future. If TCW took the lot - we would make a quick buck but miss out on the bigger future $$$ (IMHO). Of course we can still sell anytime if need be...

- dukey.

Agreed.

But it does put somewhat of a ceiling on the SP in the short term. (Not that this isn't a bad thing at the moment, because it wont drop much further than what it is at the moment for the same reasons.)

 

[TheAbyss]

Agreed.

But it does put somewhat of a ceiling on the SP in the short term. (Not that this isn't a bad thing at the moment, because it wont drop much further than what it is at the moment for the same reasons.)

I prefer the term" A new floor"

 

[Hal]

Apologies for newbie question, but does anyone have an opinion on whether the QGC off mkt buy back is attractive, or is there not enough info released as yet?

Cheers

 

[TheAbyss]

At $1.52 it would be near enough to selling on market. AGL paid $1.60 a share for their 27.5%. Unless you need the money or the market conditions are making you nervous I would be holding onto QGC as they have a lot more reserves to prove up and sell so their price can only go up over the next 24 months unless something catostrophic eventuates.

There are some other CSG stocks looking goood at the moment also such as Arrow who are going head to head with QGC on the sp and 2p (proved and probable) fronts.

IMO and DYOR. I hold QGC.

 

[Hal]

Cheers mate, think i'll hold.

 

[Dukey]

Yeah - my feeling is that there should be more up than down for QGC after the buyback is finished. I'm gonna wait until then and see what happens. At some stage I definitely want a piece of Arrow as well - wish I had them 6 months ago!! - I may well end up swapping some $$ out of QGC to diversify into AOE - but not just yet.

Though an important questions is... which one will grow fastest from here??

 

[chops_a_must]

Yeah - my feeling is that there should be more up than down for QGC after the buyback is finished. I'm gonna wait until then and see what happens. At some stage I definitely want a piece of Arrow as well - wish I had them 6 months ago!! - I may well end up swapping some $$ out of QGC to diversify into AOE - but not just yet.

Though an important questions is... which one will grow fastest from here??

I see little point in being in QGC from here. Like I was saying above, I was concerned about this deal putting a cap on the share price, and it seems those concerns were well founded. AOE definitely has better growth prospects from here on. Focussing on massive farm in deals rather than blocking stakes, has allowed them to devote full energy to prospective areas, rather than concentrating more on mature fields.

There are much better stocks in this sector than QGC, and much more undervalued also (with no upside capping). I'll be looking to exit QGC before long and putting the resources into the stocks in this sector with much more upside potential.

 

[Dukey]

Yeah Chops - I see where you are coming from - was just about to post a link to your post on smaller CSM-ers on the potential breakouts thread.

Long term I'm sure QGC will be a winner, but maybe others will grow faster in the short term. MEL and ESG are definitely worth a look and I shall!! Thanks for drawing attention to them....