QGC - Queenland Gas Company

[TheAbyss]

He has since responded to say that QGC have no exposure.

On another note i see that a few are locking in some gains today on QGC which is entirely understandable in todays climate.

 

[Tysonboss1]

He has since responded to say that QGC have no exposure.

On another note i see that a few are locking in some gains today on QGC which is entirely understandable in todays climate.

Yeah the price has been all over the place today,..

I don't think the market has a clear value on this one today.

I put in a small order for some stock at $4.60 just to top up incase it rallied higher again, and a larger order for $4.20 that I was just going to let sit incase they drop over the next few days,...

But to my surprise i looked back 1/2 hour later and both orders had gone through.

It's going to be interesting to see where this stock comes to rest.

 

[grace]

Can someone look at course of sales for me. Is this robotic trading - little orders going through? Any thoughts?

 

[chops_a_must]

Can someone look at course of sales for me. Is this robotic trading - little orders going through? Any thoughts?

Don't know if it is or not, but I'd say QGC has a fair chance of dipping to about 3.60. I'll be buying there if it looks strong at that point.

I'd be inclined to fade this breakout now as well, but given the strength in energy, all the potential seems to be to the upside now.

Plus, I'd say given the figures in the December quarterly, the half yearly will be quite good as well.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Can someone look at course of sales for me. Is this robotic trading - little orders going through? Any thoughts?

The average trade was $4700 today if thats any help,...

I think this company is a strong longterm buy,...

I wouldn't worry about the shorterm ups and down,... just accumulate every time the price is right,...

 

[fma007]

I've been accumulating this one as well. I think it has great potential. Announced record profits today and looks like going full steam ahead with UK's BG.

Good future for this company

 

[TheAbyss]

Speared off an email today to QGC for some comment on their thoughts as to why some 18 million shares were sold off recently which contributed to the SP slide back to the $3.20 it is at currently.

I havent suggested this in my email but it might be as simple as profit taking plus the announcement that QGC are forgoing short term profits for long term gains by devoting their resources to exploration rather than production.

I will advise when i receive a response.

 

[oldblue]

Good luck with your query, A.
In my experience, companies are often as much in the dark as the rest of us as to why shares are bought and sold.
No doubt, a substantial holder notice will issue in due course if its one holder doing most of the selling but this won't tell us the reason behind the action.
My guess is its the volatile state of the market these last few weeks.

 

[chops_a_must]

AGL have been selling off their stake.

Been making a monty on this short, as discussed on the blog. Looking for $3.00 here.

 

[grace]

AGL have been selling off their stake.

Been making a monty on this short, as discussed on the blog. Looking for $3.00 here.

Chops, how did you find out it is AGL? Did I miss something.

I was looking to top up so keep shorting it hey!

 

[TheAbyss]

AGL have been selling off their stake.

Been making a monty on this short, as discussed on the blog. Looking for $3.00 here.

Amazing. I just read on another thread how TA was not always reliable in the current climate and the next i read your blog and find my 2nd confirmation that TA is still a viable medium (FMG close confirmed that TA). The old chestnut, a tool is only as good as the tradesman holding it comes to mind. I tip my hat and congratulate you Chops, well done.

Answers my query precisely. Where did you learn that AGL were divesting, not that it doesnt make sense now that QGC have found a new friend?

In QGC for a very long time so short term swings are not a concern though it always pays to be attentive. Yes trading the swings is an option but not for one of limited skillsets such as myself.

If i keep checking the blog will i see an update for when you have closed the short and either gone long or stayed out with substantiation?

Again, great job and well done. :bier:

 

[chops_a_must]

Amazing. I just read on another thread how TA was not always reliable in the current climate and the next i read your blog and find my 2nd confirmation that TA is still a viable medium (FMG close confirmed that TA). The old chestnut, a tool is only as good as the tradesman holding it comes to mind. I tip my hat and congratulate you Chops, well done.

Answers my query precisely. Where did you learn that AGL were divesting, not that it doesnt make sense now that QGC have found a new friend?

In QGC for a very long time so short term swings are not a concern though it always pays to be attentive. Yes trading the swings is an option but not for one of limited skillsets such as myself.

If i keep checking the blog will i see an update for when you have closed the short and either gone long or stayed out with substantiation?

Again, great job and well done. :bier:

It's not done yet... But barring a massive spike, it's now a guaranteed 1.5R trade. These gaps become bread and butter with enough time in futures... Obviously not 100% reliable, but good enough to get a really good return.

I didn't know AGL were selling at the time I took the short. That was pure ****.

I'll get out about 3.00, I don't give exact exits/ stops for various reasons... Paranoia

Because of their priority to building reserves and not short term production... I can't see this going anywhere but sideways to down for a while. Just a punt that it will be in a band between about 2.50 (good support there), and in the low 3s. If it reacts ok to the 2.50 support, I might write some puts on it for the long term portfolio, if I want it to be excercised...

Anyway, here is the article... AGL have some credit problems... that volume spike yesterday is also interesting...

AGL plans asset sales to rebalance portfolio

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Nigel Wilson | March 01, 2008

AGL Energy is poised to sell major assets as it continues to rebuild after the Alinta carve-up of 18months ago.

Chief executive Michael Fraser confirmed yesterday that AGL's 10 per cent stake in PNG gas fields was set to be sold.

The company was also considering the future of its investment in the Loy Yang A power station -- the most efficient of Victoria's brown coal generators -- as well as selling its equity in Queensland Gas Company.

AGL Energy, the nation's biggest electricity and gas retailer, reported a first-half loss because of a slide in the value of hedging contracts for the purchase of power and the sale of oil.

In the half year to December 31 the loss was $22.9 million, compared with a profit of $3.4 million in the equivalent months of 2006.

Earnings before one-time items and derivatives slid 6.5 per cent to $183 million.

Mr Fraser repeated that the result was in line with the company's announcement to the market last October, guidance that led to AGL Energy's stock being savaged and ultimately the sacking of then CEO Paul Anthony.

AGL Energy said yesterday full-year "underlying" profit was on track to meet the revised forecast of $330 million to $360 million.

But ratings agency Standard & Poor's remained unimpressed, confirming its BBB negative credit measure and negative outlook on AGL Energy, saying this reflected a "temporary weakening of AGLE's financial performance and uncertainty on the timely execution of AGLE's strategies to substantially strengthen its balance sheet well before the end of calendar 2008".

"We expect AGL Energy to take immediate action to begin the sales process of some non-core assets in order to reduce its debt by $600-$700 million over the next six months," the agency said.

Mr Fraser said AGL Energy was considering selling its interests in oil and gas fields in PNG, and planned to sell all its pipeline interests once the benefits of owning the assets were achieved.

The company's merchant energy business, which includes power generation, had a 21 per cent jump in first-half operating profit to $238.9 million, but retail earnings were essentially unchanged.

"These results confirm that AGL has a strong underlying business," Mr Fraser said.

Later he said the company was actively rebalancing its portfolio in the light of the federal Government's impending greenhouse emissions trading scheme. This meant its investment in Loy Yang would be reviewed.

Gas would continue to grow along with renewables, and coal's contribution would decline.

He noted the energy future was clouded, depending on the take-up of wind power and the need to cover its contribution to national electricity supply through peak shaving gas-fired generation plants.

Mr Fraser said also he believed the deal between BG Plc and QGC, in which AGL has a 27 per cent stake, to build a coal seam methane-fuelled LNG plant in Gladstone would change the dynamics of LNG in Australia.

It was unlikely that all four LNG plants proposed for Gladstone would go ahead, with the BG plant likely to stimulate the aggregation of CSM supplies from a number of producers.

AGL Energy's investment in QGC, which cost around $300million, was now worth $800million so the board was considering whether to realise the capital gain for other projects.

The gas supply contracts with QGC would not be affected, Mr Fraser said.

 

[MRC & Co]

TheAbyss, of course some can still get gains out of TA, I agree with chops, gaps are prooving very reliable.

As far as who is using the tool, go through the threads. Its being used by many many here and not to great effect lately. You will always find positives and negatives of any tool, however I seem to be noticing a hell of a lot of wrong TA calls lately (including making a few myself). I dont know how many false breakouts on high volume in charts I have been seeing lately, due to indicies crashing down and destroying the trend.

Either way, you have to find your own trading style, if TA works for you, use it. I still do use the basics, but Im not putting much on the line simply based on TA at the moment, chops is using it well. On that note chops, you take the ASX short position?

Be careful about selling those naked puts for the longer-term, with the 3000s being talked of

 

[chops_a_must]

Either way, you have to find your own trading style, if TA works for you, use it. I still do use the basics, but Im not putting much on the line simply based on TA at the moment, chops is using it well. On that note chops, you take the ASX short position?

Be careful about selling those naked puts for the longer-term chops, with the 3000s being talked of

I couldn't take the ASX short because IB are having some troubles obviously. Probably a good thing, it would have gone against me thus far. Still think it has a good chance of hitting 30 at least though.

What I would be most likely to do with those puts is to create a spread. Either at the time of the original written put, or depending on how it looks, a bit after. That way I can decide what to do...

I'm not like that wad on bear stearns. Lol! Whoever said buy and holders had no risk management?

 

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, probably a good thing looking at it now (only checked the price just then). Would definately wait for a week or so however, momentum looks ok today, considering yesterday was such a huge spike! With all the bears out there, a short bounce looks likely at least to me. Historically, multiple IR cuts also do very well in the medium-term as far as rallies are concerned. Perhaps this is why the POG is being hammered. Shifting assets (as I did myself today) to those areas of momentum and vice-versa.

Yeh, a credit spread would be one way of doing it. At least then you still generate some income and hedge, good old risk management! Or sell LEAPS (surely you can sell them, as you can definately buy them), if the market hasnt recovered in some time, you at least can close them out without huge time decay. Dont fully understand the exact legalities of such things however.

 

[Jimminy]

Wilson HTM Investment had a bus load of staff attend QGC Berwyndale operation during the week. Were mightily impressed by what they saw and were told!

 

[TheAbyss]

Good on you QGC. Quietly banks $664 million way ahead of schedule and visits India with the Premier to start a new enterprise over there. Pity they released the information on a friday night though they will get some coverage out of the weekend press with good news at a premium at the moment.

QGC AND BG GROUP COMPLETE LNG TRANSACTION
QGC RECEIVES $664 MILLION

Australia’s leading coal seam gas producer, Queensland Gas Company (QGC), today completed the transaction to form a world-scale LNG alliance with global energy company, BG Group.

The completion in Brisbane today resulted in QGC receiving $664 million from BG Group (formerly British Gas). QGC Chairman Robert Bryan said he was delighted that the transaction was completed today, ahead of schedule and in
recognition of the importance of a key component of the alliance with BG Group.

QGC and BG Group are working on a joint commitment for the annual export of 3-4 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from an LNG plant proposed to be built near Gladstone on the Central Queensland coast.

QGC will supply the LNG plant with 190 petajoules of coal seam gas a year from the company’s tenements in the Surat Basin. The project is scheduled to export its first shipment of LNG in 2013.

“The transfer of the funds today from BG Group marks BG’s first investment in Australia and reinforces the seriousness and credibility of the alliance with QGC,’’ Mr Bryan said.

“This is a tremendous step forward for QGC because it provides us with the means to continue QGC’s rapid growth.’’

The transaction which gives rise to QGC’s alliance with BG Group has received relevant approvals from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and the Queensland Government.

QGC will receive a further $207 million from BG Group for the sale of a further 10 per cent of QGC’s interests in the Walloon coal seam gas acreage, upon the earlier of a positive Final Investment Decision (FID), or the certification of
7,000 petajoules of proved and probable (2P) reserves.

Independent certifiers Netherland Sewell & Associates have assessed that QGC currently has 1,317 petajoules of proved and probable (2P) reserves, and more than 7,255 petajoules in reserves and contingent resources. As part of the understanding with BG Group, Mr Bryan welcomed Mr David Maxwell, BG Group’s Managing Director Business Development, as an alternate director to the Board of QGC.

QGC Managing Director Richard Cottee, in India on a trade mission with Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and for meetings with BG Group executives in Mumbai, said BG Group’s initial investment is equivalent to more than 20 per
cent of QGC’s market capitalisation. He said the transaction will transform QGC’s focus.

“The fact we have been able to achieve this just nine weeks after we jointly announced our innovative alliance gives me great confidence in the end game,’’ Mr Cottee said.


“We are in the enviable position of having no debt, almost $800 million in cash in the bank, growing reserves of coal seam gas, a track record of success, and a professional partner in BG Group – a top 10 company on the London Stock Exchange.’’

Of the $664 million provided by BG Group today: · About $415 million is in return for a 20 per cent share of QGC’s existing interests in QGC’s world-class Walloon coal seam gas acreage; and · About $249 million is in return for 81,278,451 new shares equivalent to 9.9 per cent of QGC’s expanded capital at $3.07 a share.

Mr Cottee commended the Queensland Government for environmentally-friendly policies which have supported producers of natural gas, including coal seam gas. The key policy requires Queensland users of large amounts of electricity to source a minimum of 13 per cent of their electricity from gas-fired generation. The figure will increase to 18 per cent by 2020.

Mr Cottee said QGC is in an ideal position to capitalise on the world’s growing demand for LNG as a significantly cleaner, greener energy source. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh, who joined Mr Cottee and BG Group executives in Mumbai, India, today to mark completion of the transaction, applauded QGC and BG Group for their rapid progress.

“I am excited by the tremendous advantages which this massive project promises to deliver for Queensland and for the environment on a global scale,’’ Ms Bligh said. “There will be several thousand job opportunities and ongoing economic revival of drought-stricken communities throughout the Surat Basin.
“We now look forward to a massive development programme, some $8 billion in capital expenditure, a new cornerstone for growth in Gladstone where the LNG plant will be built, and the export of a greener energy source.

“The royalties from the project will help to underpin the dynamic growth being achieved throughout Queensland. “Having met the Chief Executive of BG Group, Frank Chapman, and his counterpart at QGC, Richard Cottee, I understand how the project is coming to fruition so quickly.’’

 

[laurie]

So why is AGL selling off its holding in QGC when Santos went for a takeover? Something is not right

cheers laurie

 

[Tysonboss1]

So why is AGL selling off its holding in QGC when Santos went for a takeover? Something is not right

cheers laurie

Agl has already made alot on this stock,..... AGL needs cashflow at the moment and the stock is not paying a dividend, I guess they are just thinkinking that they will take there profit and free up some capital so as to improve there cashflow.

 

[TheAbyss]

Also AGL are after a stake in a LNG plant in Qld which they are now chasing. They thought they could via QGC however now that QGC are with BG, AGL are swapping horses imo.