QGC - Queenland Gas Company

[chops_a_must]

Another big announcement today. Proven reserves up 2 thirds.

 

[Raging Bull]

I bought into this stock last year in Oct for 0.46 and sold a couple of weeks ago at 1.46.. super happy obviously.

I would have stayed in but my concern is that the trading leading up to the take over bid (Aug & Sep) was mainly fuelled by Santos. Since the big jump after the take over bid the price has been hovering.. making me think the situation is currently 'artificial'.

My concern is that if the bid doesn't go through there will be a correction back down to the $1 mark..

Any thoughts on this? I am just starting out so any advice about anything I am missing in my reasoning would be appreciated..

cheers
RB

 

[Dukey]

Bull, you could be right - they may drop back a bit if Santos fails - but with recent reserves increases etc, I think any retracement would be very temporary.

No doubt 1.46 was a pretty good exit - well done! - and it may take a while to get back there, but the board and what they've done with 1st class assets have impressed me so I'm long term bottom shelf on QGC now. That's assuming nothing happens to change my mind!!

 

[Raging Bull]

Hi Dukey,

Santos have extended the offer to just before Christmas.. so more of the waiting game.. I do thing QGC is very strong and awesome for a long term prospect..

Personally I don't think the Santos offer will go through. If this causes a decent correction I'll buy back in...

cheers
RB

 

[chops_a_must]

I do thing QGC is very strong and awesome for a long term prospect..

Personally I don't think the Santos offer will go through. If this causes a decent correction I'll buy back in...

cheers
RB

I don't think it will cause a correction. The reserves that Santos had said did not exist, have now been independentally verified, they do exist. So we know the SP wont go below $1.26. Which is what Santos had valued it at without the argued reserves (unforeseen events aside). Certainly an interesting stock anyway.

 

[laurie]

I am now convinced Santos have stupid people running it the first mistake was waiting too long to make a offer for QGC they should have got in before the entitlement and they were hoping shareholders would take a quick 88% profit

cheers laurie

 

[chops_a_must]

I am now convinced Santos have stupid people running it the first mistake was waiting too long to make a offer for QGC they should have got in before the entitlement and they were hoping shareholders would take a quick 88% profit

cheers laurie

Yeah, now AGL are taking more than a 25% share in QGC, valuing QGC's share price at $1.44, with board support.

 

[chops_a_must]

I'm not happy with myself right now. I was looking at the chart of QGC yesterday and everything started screaming, "Buy! Buy!" and I didn't. Could be worse, I could be holding less than what I do.

 

[Dukey]

Wow. STO don't give up do they!!
What are their chances of success with other major shareholders like AGL to contend with? I'd still give 'em buckleys.
I can't complain - I had figured they'd back out and QGC would stay around 1.35 for a while - but hey - 17% in a day....

 

[chops_a_must]

Wow. STO don't give up do they!!
What are their chances of success with other major shareholders like AGL to contend with? I'd still give 'em buckleys.
I can't complain - I had figured they'd back out and QGC would stay around 1.35 for a while - but hey - 17% in a day....

Now it makes it really hard for shareholders to accept the AGL offer. As they say, watch this space...

 

[laurie]

Santos $1.30/share plus 1:1 in new spin off.

cheers laurie

 

[Dukey]

How about the offer?
Seems to me like a complicated arrangement STO is proposing. Makes it hard to judge the comparative merits against AGL proposal.
Why wouldn`t thay want to take ALL of QGC?? Gotta say I`m suspicious of STO motives there.

Any comments?

 

[TheAbyss]

IMO CEO Mr Cottee is an explorer at heart and Santos are scratching his itch by offering the start up explorer arm for him to realise his vision for the other prospects in the GGC stable. That will be a powerful incentive for him to support the new offer.

The share holders win because they get good value at $1.30 plus 1:1 shares in the exploration arm and with the visionary responsible (CEO Cottee) for the fantastic growth experienced so far remaining at the helm. That is a critical component in my view. Value is also very dependent on the proposed 50c value of the "new QGC" standing up under evaluation.

My question is do we get in for more shares on the prospect of the 1.80 valuation by Santos being trumped with a revised offer by the other bidder, AGL?


I hold QGC if you couldnt tell

 

[Dukey]

Like your idea Abyss. Expl/Devel spin off does seem like a nice carrot.

Positives - Potentially we shareholders could cash in on this takeover, then cash in again a year or 2 down the track when the spin-off QGC has grown like the first one - and another takeover happens.

Negatives - New QGC would have less income and market clout. But possibly sharper exploration upside.

Dunno - just trying to brainstorm possibilities - could be way off track...???

 

[TheAbyss]

The potential downside is they could price themselves out of the market and Santos could go away. At worst they could retreat back to the AGL SP valuation. Which isnt to bad either. All is well in my view.

 

[laurie]

Well you are all forgetting one thing CGT.....so its Peter Costello laughing all the way to the bank and the new spin off would you have to hold for another 12 months or is it deemed to be an extension of the existing QGC for CGT purpose

cheers laurie

 

[TheAbyss]

Take a look at the depth on QGC.

Top 10 = 263 buyers after a total of 2,159,584 units from a total of 42 sellers looking to sell 804,330 units.

Thoughts?

 

[justjohn]

Santos is sitting by awaiting a ACCC decision before upping the ante on QGC also there is a proposed share by -back of up to 12.5% which is starting to stir up a bit of interest in QGC. Anyway DYOR :

 

[TjamesX]

Watch for it to fall 10-20% on open.... ACCC has knocked back Santos' takeover bid...

Hedge funds won't like a one horse race

 

[gunditrader]

New takeover offer out on QGC @ 1.51 by TCW
Will AGL lift its offer to miss out on this gas play