I'm not selling any of my CSGers as I think BG will have to up the bid price....Just my opinion though. We might go higher, we might go lower...
QGC - Queenland Gas Company
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I'm not selling any of my CSGers as I think BG will have to up the bid price....Just my opinion though. We might go higher, we might go lower...
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I am thinking about selling 1/2 my QGC today at $6 and putting part of the money into Arrow and rebuy qgc if the price retreats,....
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Arrow and PES have gone pretty hard also TB. I would be either locking in some profits or staying with what you have as QGC are tier 1 in this sector.
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I think that's a bad move then again it's your money if this was a 2 horse race in the Melbourne Cup AOE will always come second I think AOE assumed that local gas prices was to remain low so then they went overseas hey not saying its was bad move as I hold both BUT NHC holds 17.8% of AOE and I have been on record as saying IMHO NHC will make a bid for AOE as they have the acreage where the gas is then QGC will throw their bid in also for AOE
cheers laurie
Eddyl
I'll admit to a bit of bias here before I start. I have a fairly large shareholding in this and have been a shareholder for about 3 years now.
Having said that I think that they are using their position well. They have a power station coming online at the start of next year as well as announcing a huge joint venture with BG to build the infrastructure and supply gas for an LNG plant in Gladstone. To go from a small explorer to this in less than 3 years is outstanding in anyones language! As you'd know - they also have several contracts supplying gas to third parties.
About 12-18 months ago Richard Cottee talked about how they could buy smaller companies to expand at a certain cost (cant remember exact amount but it was quite a lot per GJ) or they could use the same amount of time and resources and explore/expand their own holdings at a much lesser amount (I think about 3cents per GJ). This is why the company has always grown organically and not by takeover.
I would trust the management of this company much more than any other. They have always (ALWAYS!!) under promised and over delivered. There are very few other companies particularly in the mining sector that you could say that about. And they have always been this way - even as a small explorer.
I think eventually they will start looking at other smaller explorers for expansion but not before they have fully utilized their own land. The last thing you want is management empire building just for the sake of it. We've all seen that too many times before (eg Fast Eddy and ABC!) They have aspirations to head overseas (BG may be a plank in this) but I'd say that is a little way off but you never know.
Anyway - like I said at the start - I'm biased - I like the company, I think the management is first rate, and I think that they will grow - maybe not as aggressively as the last 3 years but certainly they will grow constantly and make full use of all their resources and contacts.
malachii
PS - Just re-reading your comments about not aggressively exploring new tenements - during their "GAS" program they doubled their reserves and if my memory serves me right they are looking at doubling them again this year with the current drilling program. They have started drilling in some of the leases that have not had much exploration at this stage. They also need to shore up their 2P reserves from the current 1300 PJ to 7000 PJ for the balance of the BG investment so I'd say that the next few years they will have to pretty aggressively explore/develop.
I'll admit to a bit of bias here before I start. I have a fairly large shareholding in this and have been a shareholder for about 3 years now.
Having said that I think that they are using their position well. They have a power station coming online at the start of next year as well as announcing a huge joint venture with BG to build the infrastructure and supply gas for an LNG plant in Gladstone. To go from a small explorer to this in less than 3 years is outstanding in anyones language! As you'd know - they also have several contracts supplying gas to third parties.
About 12-18 months ago Richard Cottee talked about how they could buy smaller companies to expand at a certain cost (cant remember exact amount but it was quite a lot per GJ) or they could use the same amount of time and resources and explore/expand their own holdings at a much lesser amount (I think about 3cents per GJ). This is why the company has always grown organically and not by takeover.
I would trust the management of this company much more than any other. They have always (ALWAYS!!) under promised and over delivered. There are very few other companies particularly in the mining sector that you could say that about. And they have always been this way - even as a small explorer.
I think eventually they will start looking at other smaller explorers for expansion but not before they have fully utilized their own land. The last thing you want is management empire building just for the sake of it. We've all seen that too many times before (eg Fast Eddy and ABC!) They have aspirations to head overseas (BG may be a plank in this) but I'd say that is a little way off but you never know.
Anyway - like I said at the start - I'm biased - I like the company, I think the management is first rate, and I think that they will grow - maybe not as aggressively as the last 3 years but certainly they will grow constantly and make full use of all their resources and contacts.
malachii
PS - Just re-reading your comments about not aggressively exploring new tenements - during their "GAS" program they doubled their reserves and if my memory serves me right they are looking at doubling them again this year with the current drilling program. They have started drilling in some of the leases that have not had much exploration at this stage. They also need to shore up their 2P reserves from the current 1300 PJ to 7000 PJ for the balance of the BG investment so I'd say that the next few years they will have to pretty aggressively explore/develop.
Gotta agree with Malachii here. (and like him I'm biased - but with good reason I believe)
QGC have always outperformed my expectations ... and the markets I think. Thats why they have overtaken and streaked ahead of AOE when the two sp's were tracking fairly closely for a good while.
That doesn't mean that AOE doesn't have a bright future - they will for sure; but QGC: with fast development, proving up resources and getting them to market, + the BG LNG plant joint venture ... QGC seems to have the bull by the horns to me. Future t/o's of smaller CSG holders likely.
On a personal note - I would say I have later regretted every single time I took a few QGC shares off the table to 'lock in profits' ... All just my opinion....
BUT yes - QGC has run hard lately and you have to balance that against the fact that AOE has just started drilling in india and is really not much above last years historical highs .. so it could run more in the short term.
Difficult decisions!! If QGC starts to turn down I'll be tempted myself, to sell some and buy them back at lower prices. But I'd hate to get stuck without them!!!?
there-in lies the dilemma...
I bet thats all about as clear as mud Eddyl !?
.... sorry - just thinking aloud. good luck whatever course you take. - dukey.
Hi Malachii,
You're right. I really like the experience in the executives of the companies. Its one of the reasons I bought. I thought this company was more in the consolidation phase, and was neglecting exploration. If a resource company wants to grow, it needs to add to its discovered resources.
I like your theory about overseas development. I think its important that CSG companies pursue these avenues. This is were really energy growth is going to continue in the future.
You're right. I really like the experience in the executives of the companies. Its one of the reasons I bought. I thought this company was more in the consolidation phase, and was neglecting exploration. If a resource company wants to grow, it needs to add to its discovered resources.
I like your theory about overseas development. I think its important that CSG companies pursue these avenues. This is were really energy growth is going to continue in the future.
Will be interesting to see how QGC sp goes today after falling over the last few days. no doubt a few folks have seen fit to take profits as indicated by some recent posts. Have even considered doing same myself with view to buying in cheaper down the line. the big ?? as always is will she fall more... to $5.00 or even $4.50-4.60 ?? or will we see the buyers come in again today....
I don't claim to be a chartist at all - but the last few days on this one look alot like the first week of Feb, when QGC started to drop back after good gains... so I'm leaning towards a few more down days to come UNLESS another good announcement involving JV's etc comes along to prop us up...
any opinions out there??
-Dukey
I don't claim to be a chartist at all - but the last few days on this one look alot like the first week of Feb, when QGC started to drop back after good gains... so I'm leaning towards a few more down days to come UNLESS another good announcement involving JV's etc comes along to prop us up...
any opinions out there??
-Dukey
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Hi Dukey,
that last time QGC went down a significant amount, i read somewhere that it was due to AGL selling down part of its share in the company. Thats why the price almost reached pre-BG levels.
Anyway, what i'm getting at is although the share price might slip a bit due to the current hype around CSG, i doubt it will retrace the same amount we saw in Feb/March. My
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I do hold this share, so maybe i'm bias.
that last time QGC went down a significant amount, i read somewhere that it was due to AGL selling down part of its share in the company. Thats why the price almost reached pre-BG levels.
Anyway, what i'm getting at is although the share price might slip a bit due to the current hype around CSG, i doubt it will retrace the same amount we saw in Feb/March. My
.I do hold this share, so maybe i'm bias.
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In addition to AGL selling ANZ also sold off a holding as part of the OPES issues. It is a 23 page report so i didnt read it too closely as i have no intention with parting with any of mine, however there was a holding disclosure and also a ceasing to be a substantial holder notice. It looks as though they sold enough to be below the 5%.
Probably go down today like everything else will. Buy in the dips as they say.
Probably go down today like everything else will. Buy in the dips as they say.
Hi Dukey,
that last time QGC went down a significant amount, i read somewhere that it was due to AGL selling down part of its share in the company. Thats why the price almost reached pre-BG levels.
Anyway, what i'm getting at is although the share price might slip a bit due to the current hype around CSG, i doubt it will retrace the same amount we saw in Feb/March. My
I do hold this share, so maybe i'm bias.
That sounds about right re AGL selling down in Feb. Yesterdays rise was encouraging. The other possibility is the potential of some investors to take profits in order to throw them at 2nd tier CSG or UCG stocks, which may be seen as having more short term upside - though many have already run as strong or stronger than QGC.
Will be very glad to be proven wrong if QGC holds above 5.50 - since a big part of my portfolio is with them!!
-Dukey
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They are holding up ok at the moment. More interesting is that VPE are up nearly 10% on a pretty decent amt of volume who QGC grabbed a stake in recently. They are yet to go so it may well be time.
Agree totally with you regrading the prospects of the CSG players. They are all being rerated so no need to jump around IMO.
QGC seems to be bucking trends at the moment. Up almost 5% today. It seems like its up and up for CSGers. I really like this company, because it has a really estabilished position within the market, excellent exploration program, and it is already producing with contracts. Ultimately, it is in a great position to harness global demand for CSG and doing forward increased global demand for energy in general
Did anyone see the price sensitive announcement about QGC today. A deal to supply 50PJ of gas over 20 years to a new NSW power station?
This sounds like great news as QGC moves from strength to strength. Its good to see a company exploring lots of prospective tennements, but its even better to see them signing large supply contracts. This moves the company well into the realm of CSG producer, with a significant market lead of lots of the little CSGer's
This sounds like great news as QGC moves from strength to strength. Its good to see a company exploring lots of prospective tennements, but its even better to see them signing large supply contracts. This moves the company well into the realm of CSG producer, with a significant market lead of lots of the little CSGer's
Yep!! - just came back to see that.... and QGC just keeps pulling new rabbits out of the hat. This time - a new 400 -600 MW power station for NSW, supplied by new pipeline and all the while they are proving up new gas reserves....
gotta love it!!
I'm guessing this might be enough to prop up the SP at these levels and maybe even push through $6. Think I'll cancel my earlier predicted correction/consolidation.
:and as I said at the time... VERY happy to be proven wrong... yet again... by this gem of a company.
- still have this niggling idea in the back of my brain about UCG too... I mean why wouldn't a company like QGC want to be involved??
?????
?????
I am a holder of QGC and ESG. I note that ESG also have plans to supply NSW (just a little behind QGC one would say). The pipeline seems to be running right past ESG fields though. I find that interesting......... They were also planning a new pipeline. Anyone else care to comment?
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I hope sometime this year or early next year QGC will be paying dividends to us shareholders or a one off capital return they must have heaps of tax credits accumulated thus far
cheers laurie
As you say Laurie, another great day in the life of a QGC shareholder. I wouldnt hold out hopes for a dividend any time soon though. The tax credits aside, QGC would be looking to use all of their funds for exploration and developing things like pipelines and power stations. Not sure that they will pay a dividend for a while yet.
Latest ABN Amro report rates the entire CSG sector as overweight plus labels QGC as a juggernaut!
Excerpt below
Queensland Gas - a juggernaut advancing on all fronts
QGC’s Undulla zone (in part of which Origin is a JV partner) is a most prolific
producer, with QGC’s wells averaging 1.6 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfpd).
Reported 2P reserves of 1,317 PJ (QGC 80% and BG Group 20%) support current gas sales agreements and supply for the QGC’s Condamine Power Station. Subsequent to its agreement with BG Group, QGC has over A$800m in cash to fund the reserve increase of 4,000 PJ required to support the proposed Gladstone LNG plant, with conversion of 1,800 PJ of existing 3P reserves and exploration on QGC’s extensive tenements expected to deliver the balance - and then some (To supply CSG for things like NSW power stations etc i would guess).
The report is an in depth study of most of the Qld CSG plays that have proven reserves.
Another comment,
QGC is the standout in
terms of free cash available
to fund expansion of its 2P
reserve base
