QAN - Qantas Airways

[skc]

With abundant of $3 billions cash in reserve. Anyone thinking of reinstating dividend this coming financial year? What about share buy back?

That $3B is not a reserve. It's mostly money from "revenue received in advance" (~$2.9B on the balance sheet).

QAN however still has a frequent flyer programme that is probably worth more than the airline itself atm.

 

[Smurf1976]

imo qan is sick and getting sicker and the board, management and staff need to work together to get through this period. Otherwise they are likely to fade into obscurity in the same manner ansett did.

With the volcanic ash situation it did cross my mind for the first time that Qantas might actually end up broke.

Virgin seemed to have no problem absorbing the additional fuel cost of flying at lower altitudes in order to run as many scheduled flights as they could reasonably manage under difficult circumstances. Qantas on the other hand seems to have taken the cheap option and is viewing it as "move objects from A to B at the lowest possible cost, time is not critical".

That's not a good attitude from Qantas, and it leads me (and everyone else I've heard comment on it) to regard Virgin as the superior airline in terms of reliability, service etc. That leaves no reason to fly Qantas, at least not unless they are significantly cheaper than Virgin. The trouble is, being a discount carrier doesn't really work for Qantas' business model...

 

[StockDigger]

New board member has been appointed "Ms Corinne Namblard" Phd in political science. Are they bringing her in for the union negotiation? Hope this union dispute will come to end by this end of June.

 

[Boggo]

This was earlier this month... Rats found on aircraft

Apparently another nest found today in the forward galley.

 

[Boggo]

Have a look at this tangled web, 3 degrees of seperation ?

(click to expand)

 

[StockDigger]

Sunny sky today after 2 weeks gloomy and rains. I have a good feeling on QAN today. finger crossed. Why don't we keep this thread alive? Stock tipping?

$2.50 by December.

 

[tinhat]

I'm just wondering if anyone that posts in this thread actually owns any QAN? And if so, why?

I'm a pretty average investor in terms of extracting return out of the market. That said, I wouldn't touch QAN with a rat's ****.

Airlines are like vineyards, they take a lot of capital investment deployed into a highly contestable, competitive market.

 

[skc]

I'm just wondering if anyone that posts in this thread actually owns any QAN? And if so, why?

I'm a pretty average investor in terms of extracting return out of the market. That said, I wouldn't touch QAN with a rat's ****.

Airlines are like vineyards, they take a lot of capital investment deployed into a highly contestable, competitive market.

Many share analysis text books use an airline as examples of a bad industry to buy-and-hold. And it's quite hard to disagree on that. Fuel costs, discretionary spending, interest rates, exchange rates, labour union issues, technical issues, terrorism, swine flu, earthquakes, SARS, weather, vocanic ash... it's hard to think of another industry that is as easily shakened as airlines.

Having said that QAN is a decent trading stock imo. I am long QAN at the moment as part of a pairs trade.

 

[franklin235]

With the volcanic ash situation it did cross my mind for the first time that Qantas might actually end up broke.

Virgin seemed to have no problem absorbing the additional fuel cost of flying at lower altitudes in order to run as many scheduled flights as they could reasonably manage under difficult circumstances. Qantas on the other hand seems to have taken the cheap option and is viewing it as "move objects from A to B at the lowest possible cost, time is not critical".

That's not a good attitude from Qantas, and it leads me (and everyone else I've heard comment on it) to regard Virgin as the superior airline in terms of reliability, service etc. That leaves no reason to fly Qantas, at least not unless they are significantly cheaper than Virgin. The trouble is, being a discount carrier doesn't really work for Qantas' business model...

I heard Virgin was the only airline besides the internationals and the regionals to carry on flying here to Adelaide. They don't seem to be doing all that badly despite the cancellations, no. Qantas, meanwhile, looks to be a totally different story...

"Rival airlines have slammed the decision by Qantas to cancel flights and labelled the tactic a PR stunt aimed at boosting the beleaguered company's public image.

Virgin, Emirates, Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines are privately fuming at the Qantas decision.

Qantas was the only major airline to continue to ground flights.

"At the moment there are no particles in any airspace where we're flying and our pilots are even reporting in and telling us their space is clear," one airline told The Daily Telegraph.

 

[Smurf1976]

I heard Virgin was the only airline besides the internationals and the regionals to carry on flying here to Adelaide. They don't seem to be doing all that badly despite the cancellations, no. Qantas, meanwhile, looks to be a totally different story...

Domestic flights are critical infrastructure in Australia in much the same way as roads, rail, electricity, gas etc are critical infrastructure. With Qantas (including Jetstar) having something like a 70% market share, their decision to shut down has had a massive impact on the wider community.

Imagine if 70% of the electricity, gas etc were turned off for no good reason. There would be widespread community outrage and government would almost certainly step in and order that production be resumed.

Qantas has exposed its own dominance as a fundamental weakness in my opinion. I can't be the only person who has suddenly realised that we have a huge exposure to the actions of a company. As a politician would say, that situation is clearly not in the national interest and something needs to be done about it.

I wouldn't have thought that getting government and the general public off side was a smart move for a company such as Qantas when you think about the longer term implications it could well have.

 

[StockDigger]

I am on QAN for long. There is upside fundamental just market negative sentiment that pull it down.

buysellsignals.com just upgrade their short-term trading for QAN from 2 to "3 out of 5". They still maintain the long term "5 out of 5"

Here is the fundamental analysis quoted from their report:
BULLISH SIGNALS:
Price/Sales of 0.3 versus sector average of 1.1 and market average of 1.7.
The Price to Book of 0.8 lower than average of 7.3 for the Transportation sector and 2.8 for the Total Australian Market.
BEARISH SIGNALS:
The earnings yield of 2.72% below 10-year bond yield of 5.08%.


Technical analysis:
BULLISH SIGNALS:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 14.9 has breached the oversold line of 30; the stock is also oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -95.2.


And information I got, don't know if it is accurate=>

"Balanced Equity Management Ltd bought a net 22,656,088 Qantas Airways Ltd shares between March 1 and June 15, 2011, increasing from 161,110,780 shares (7.11%) to 183,766,868 shares (8.11%)." Is it accumulating time?

 

[Boggo]

Sunny sky today after 2 weeks gloomy and rains. I have a good feeling on QAN today. finger crossed. Why don't we keep this thread alive? Stock tipping?
$2.50 by December.

It hasn't changed from the direction it has been going since 2007.
Waiting for you to qualify the $2.50 by December statement.

I'm just wondering if anyone that posts in this thread actually owns any QAN? And if so, why?

There may be a few who hold, usually Mum and Dad type investors, their stock selection is usually limited to the likes of Telstra, Qantas, Woolies and a few banks.
You will recognise them by terminology such as 'bought a small parcel, added to my holding, long term this has great potential, I am an investor, in for the long term upside and bottom drawer' etc comments.

That sort of covers who and why I think.

(click to see reality)

 

[Boggo]

"Balanced Equity Management Ltd bought a net 22,656,088 Qantas Airways Ltd shares between March 1 and June 15, 2011, increasing from 161,110,780 shares (7.11%) to 183,766,868 shares (8.11%)." Is it accumulating time?

Averaging down on the ones they bought in Jan and Feb, be interesting to see what their current average cost price is.

They probably bought what AMP were selling, AMP are now out.

May be interesting to see who gets it right.

 

[StockDigger]

QAN on trading halt!.

 

[Boggo]

QAN on trading halt!.

Jetstar to Europe ?

 

[matty77]

Jetstar to Europe ?

Major loss to be confirmed. I wouldnt be holding.

 

[skc]

Major loss to be confirmed. I wouldnt be holding.

Everyone was expecting the worst and it actually wasn't nearly as bad. The P/L impact is cushioned by the Rolls Royces engine settlement.

Allowed me a nice exit at $1.87 ish. Who knows which way the volcanic ash will blow tomorrow...

 

[matty77]

Expect to expect the opposite of what the media expects is going to happen and then you should get it right.

 

[StockDigger]

investsmart.com.au put QAN on buy (21 Jun 2011) recommendation with 8 brokers surveyed. Should we go short or long this time?

http://www.investsmart.com.au/shares/asx/Qantas-Airways-QAN.asp

Commsec changed their recommendation to Hold

 

[Columbia330]

It is difficult to invest in a Company that has been fined multiple times for freight cartel fraud, never purchased B-777 aircraft to replace the majority of it's aged 747 fleet. Continues to have only two destinations in Europe, 1 in mainland China. Loses huge amounts of money with Jetstar Pacific in Vietnam and Jetstar Asia (small accounting profit last financial year). Jetstar International cannot be profitable as much of it's income is derived from Japan and the load factor is poor. The management is only interested in the Low Cost Carrier model which has difficulty making a profit when fuel costs are high. Virgin Australia has worked this out and are chasing high yield business class passengers. Besides the $95 million from Rolls Royce, how much of the remaining profit comes from Boeing for the late delivery of the B-787 or from Airbus for the late delivery of A-380's? Rob Fyfe from Air New Zealand would be a far better CEO. He doesn't call his Pilots Kamikaze's, he actually engages his employees and leads by example. Qantas is being run by consultants with a destructive industrial agenda. Not a company I would invest in, especially the way it has been mismanaged!