QAN - Qantas Airways

[Aussiejeff]

Sadly, that theory seems to have failed.

In mid-September QAN SP was around $3.50. It is now under $2.50. What happened to the POO since then? Crashed through the floor! Yet QAN also fell 30%. If only SP vs POO correlations were that simple, eh?

I hope QAN shareholders have adopted the correct seating position in preparation for todays SP crash landing following the failure of the BA merger.

aj
(non-holder)

*M-M-m-m-m*! Tasty! (just finished polishing off my hat, since I was forced to eat it when I checked the SP!)

Obviously, all QAN shareholders HATED the merger plan.

Cheers,

aj

 

[cuttlefish]

Got to say I'm pretty surprised by that as well, after reading about the merger being canned last night I assumed it would gap down on the open as well. (didn't follow it today though).

 

[investorpaul]

Any current opinions on this stock?

I have it on my watch list to short once it closes below $1.90 (hopefully any day now).

Besides my interpretation of the chart, the basis for the trade is a cross over of the 12/26 MACD and also RSI crossing below 50.

 

[StockDigger]

QAN - Qantas

Look like Qantas will be the next Ansett. Share price slumped to lowest point. Closed at $1.890.
Oil prices predicted to increase this near future. The CEO keep down talking and trashing the brand. Union disputes keep going on. A380 delayed. Operating cost increase.
VBA and Delta just being approved. WOW

I guess this week going to be a hell sell out on QAN. Should have sold with a low profit. QAN down trend continuing.

 

[nulla nulla]

Please secure your dining trays, return your seat to the upright position; fasten your seat belt; assume the crash position and kiss your **** goodbye. Loosing altitude and no prospects of zooming back into clear blue skies in the immediate future.

Oil prices are over u.s$100.00 per barrell; Virgin has spread it's .... wings and is expanding with links to Singapore Airlines, Air New Zealand and Delta; The aud$ has risen above parity with the u.s$ and international tourism is in the doldrums. Boing is having problems delivering 777's and Airbus has issues with the rolls royce engines in the 360. And no dividends.

I suppose everyone is shorting qan atm?

 

[boofhead]

Qantas is trying to make some plays to get more of the fly in-fly out mining pie. It needs to gets some success there - get a slice of the boom.

I'm sure Qantas is keeping a close eye in Tiger Airways and its woes. Losing money, safety rumours which appear to be under consideration to be investigated the CASA or whatever they are.

Yeah, I hold and not happy.

 

[StockDigger]

IMO, QAN has so much potential upside but the negative market sentiment that bring down the SP. Especially with the CEO that used very aggressive method in restructuring by talking down the firm to create a sense of urgency to change.
I hope Alan Joyce know what he is doing. I just hope that Qan will not be the next Ansett. Perhaps, it will be the greatest restructuring ever conducted or an utter failure.

Anyway, I am holding based on commsec recommendation of Buy and my denial stage of the SP Let see the performance of the SP this week especially with the news of Qantas cancelling flights due to volcanic ash clouds.

 

[Boggo]

I'm sure Qantas is keeping a close eye in Tiger Airways and its woes. Losing money, safety rumours which appear to be under consideration to be investigated the CASA or whatever they are.

I am not sure what woes you are referring to with Tiger, the basket (case) where Qantas are placing all their eggs is Jetstar and that is the bit that is concerning the whole industry including the current senate inquiry into aviation safety.

IMO, QAN has so much potential upside...

Anyway, I am holding based on commsec recommendation of Buy and my denial stage of the SP

If the share price has so much upside then why has it closed on Friday below the price that it listed at in 1995.

I will leave that recommendation you speak of for someone else to comment on

Commsec may have missed this significant item Virgin and Singapore tie up
They may also have missed that AMP sold the last of their interests in QAN on the 4th.

 

[So_Cynical]

Anyway, I am holding based on commsec recommendation of Buy and my denial stage of the SP

I will leave that recommendation you speak of for someone else to comment on

I would of said something but good taste prevailed.

 

[Knobby22]

That Virgin/Singapore Airlines tie up will be a pretty nasty alternative for Qantas.

They seem to always have another headwind to contend with.

Good company but nasty industry. I think you can buy it but you have to be fleet of foot and a bit lucky.

 

[nulla nulla]

A board shake up may be a good idea. Definitely a change of management. The irishman seems to have lost control and direction.

The pilots and the unions need to step back an look at reality also. Now is not the time to be engaging in industrial action and agitating for fatter pay packets. I suspect we may see qan test the gfc lows before there is any turn arround.

 

[Boggo]

The pilots and the unions need to step back an look at reality also. Now is not the time to be engaging in industrial action and agitating for fatter pay packets.

You are falling for what the management are feeding the media nulla.

Qantas as most know it is rapidly becoming a holding company for many subsidiaries, Jetstar being the largest.

What the media are producing and "investors" are reading are a long way from the reality of what is actually happening.
The only time Qantas will be resurrected is when its subsidiaries (Jetstar, Jetstar Asia, Jetstar Pacific, Jetconnect NZ etc) are flying all the routes, then the whole shebang will probably be renamed Qantas.

Some interesting reading Jetstar Senate extract PDF
and the day to day reality that is being uncovered Jetstar asian cheap crews

What all of this also highlights is that most so called "investors" have no idea of what is reality, they only believe what they are told.
The most basic line chart combined with a quick scan through the mandatory reports of who is buying and selling tells more about the reality of a company direction than all the spin and "expert" recommendations.

 

[StockDigger]

THAI-BASED CREW
$437 per month base salary or $5220 a year, plus allowances
SINGAPORE-BASED CREW
$20,000 a year
AUSTRALIAN CREW
$43,000 to $50,000 a year

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/travel/news/...es/story-e6frfq80-1226073646361#ixzz1P3jnGHRj

Looking at the world comparison, Australian crews are obviously over paid and In fact they are asking MORE! AND MORE!. What Qantas should have done is "a transfer of wealth from Australian crew to their lower wages colleagues" i.e. lowering their wages and in turn increase thai crew salary, therefore valuing the distributive justice along the way.

However, reality is difficult. Greed is good. And of course, those Australian crews will not want that to happen. With AUD over parity, off shoring seems to be appealing.. With all the shenanigan going on with the unions, well it just put more pressures and reasons for the CEO to go on with the off shoring plans. IMO, the government has been acting too protective on the workers. With the carbon tax going on, the operational cost of the firm will just increase while the workers keep getting compensation. Perhaps, the only way for Qantas to survive this uncertain market and increasing competition is to take this Flying kangaroo to new ecosystems that will help them to breed and avoid extinction.

 

[Boggo]

Insert reality here...

*(click to expand)
*Note - unfit for investors

 

[StockDigger]

Well, chart and SP can't really tell everything. SP is just valuation of speculation. I know that Qantas is in down trend and in brink of something something. And I regret buying the shares. and probably going to lose it all in this QAN. possibly going to retest the support on 1.89 on Tuesday opening.

A downtrend chart just can't simply justify the current condition of Qantas.

 

[jimmyizgod]

You cant seriously tell me that because you compared australian qantas employee pay to thai qantas employee pay you have come to the conclusion that australians are overpaid because they earn more than their thai counterparts.
Are you under the impression that the cost of living is the same in thailand as it is in australia?

 

[nulla nulla]

Qantas is losing money. Traffic and passenger numbers are down; fares are down due to competition; the accc blocked a link between qan and air nz but allowed Virgin to link with Delta, Air NZ and Singapore; and the unions want a pay rise and the pilots want a pay rise. The Irishman is handling it badly. Qantas is also beset with problems bringing the new boings and air buses on line which would help it reduce cost and oil prises are up..

The bulldust about cabin staff costs, Australian staff v's third world employees, is a smokescreen distracting everyone from their real problems. While I am a labour and union supporter, the airline unions and pilots need a dose of reality. Now is not the time to agitate for pay rises.

In a two speed economy (mining & non-mining) qan is in the sector where income is falling while costs are rising. To survive, they need to contain cost and boost numbers of passengers. Losing business class passengers to the competition will hurt them all the more.

imo qan is sick and getting sicker and the board, management and staff need to work together to get through this period. Otherwise they are likely to fade into obscurity in the same manner ansett did.

 

[Wysiwyg]

One of the first to succumb to peak oil I wonder. Certainly heavily reliant upon fossil fuel and although the news focus is on carbon emissions, peak oil may be the real 'adjustment'.

 

[Boggo]

And the smartest man of the lot was Sir Richard Branson.
He watched the Dixon etc debacle unfold, knew there was competition for Dixon's job between Borghetti and Joyce and that the wee laddie was the likely candidate.

If that came to pass as expected he would make Borghetti an offer of an airline on a platter, do as you see fit with it, a very smart move.
Now Borghetti runs Virgin and has an intimate knowledge of the inverted pyramid management structure in Qantas and he is in the process of taking them apart.

The unions are being portrayed as the big cost issue to QF, nothing could be further from the truth, they are being set up to be the fall guys when the fertiliser hits the mistral.
Their 70's and 80's approach of just turning up with an aeroplane and having everyone flock onboard are gone but that culture and mentality still exists in the minds of those who make the decisions.

The best aircraft in the world at the moment and for a number of years now is the Boeing 777, guess which major airline does not have one ?

Virgin are hitting them on the international market, the domestic market and are about to start hitting them on the regional market against QantasLink with their new tie up with Skywest

Another nail ?

 

[StockDigger]

With abundant of $3 billions cash in reserve. Anyone thinking of reinstating dividend this coming financial year? What about share buy back?