Closed on 30 tuesday (bluesky close) so i did double my position at yesterdays open at 30.
Some good action today on volume, buyers stepping up.
PPP - Pan Pacific Petroleum
- Thread starter TheAbyss
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Closed on 30 tuesday (bluesky close) so i did double my position at yesterdays open at 30.
Some good action today on volume, buyers stepping up.
Am i the only only holding this?
YT can you please ramp this for me, LOL.
Intersuisse initiated coverage today.
PPP currently trading at a pe of 4 on FY2008 earnings forecasts.
Report is here: http://www.intersuisse.com.au/files/Morning Notes.pdf
YT can you please ramp this for me, LOL.
Intersuisse initiated coverage today.
PPP currently trading at a pe of 4 on FY2008 earnings forecasts.
Report is here: http://www.intersuisse.com.au/files/Morning Notes.pdf
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Still holding this one Nizar. Thanks for posting the report as i was wondering how much the current sp had Tui factored into it. Based on the Intersuisse report there is a good deal left in this one.
The report states that a market re rating will take place (See copy from the report below), have you any anticipated sp after the re rating? How certain can we be that a re rating will take place?
Impact
With the imminent start of oil production at the Tui project, to be followed by the
planned drilling of the high impact Hector well, we believe PPP is set to be rerated
by the share market as the company will begin to generate significant cash
flow and earnings in FY08. We recommend PPP as a Buy for investors with the
appropriate risk profile for its likely re-rating now that it is set to begin generating
strong earnings and cash flow from its share of the Tui oil production and for its
attractive high leverage to the upcoming Hector well and other exploration areas.
The report states that a market re rating will take place (See copy from the report below), have you any anticipated sp after the re rating? How certain can we be that a re rating will take place?
Impact
With the imminent start of oil production at the Tui project, to be followed by the
planned drilling of the high impact Hector well, we believe PPP is set to be rerated
by the share market as the company will begin to generate significant cash
flow and earnings in FY08. We recommend PPP as a Buy for investors with the
appropriate risk profile for its likely re-rating now that it is set to begin generating
strong earnings and cash flow from its share of the Tui oil production and for its
attractive high leverage to the upcoming Hector well and other exploration areas.
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After reviewing the Intersuisse report the re rating rationale is obvious however i do have 2 questions if anyone can assist.
Currently PPP are .32 based on
1. A 10% interest in Tui with a forecast of 50000 BPD due to start at the end of this month
2. Potential for increased reserves at Tui
3. Exploration potential
4. Whilst there is always high risk associated with explorers, PPP are about to prove themselves as a producer which reduces the investors risk and brings about a re rating.
The above combined with some promising exploration results provide the drivers for a re rating according to the Intersuisse report.
Further to the exploration aspect i have two questions.
The PPP Hector exploration is a 14.1% holding of a forecast potential of 1,000,000 Barrels.
How can we calculate the value of the potential 14% of 1,000,000 barrels versus the known 50000 bpd? Then what impact on the SP if Hector is upgraded to 2 or 3p?
Currently PPP are .32 based on
1. A 10% interest in Tui with a forecast of 50000 BPD due to start at the end of this month
2. Potential for increased reserves at Tui
3. Exploration potential
4. Whilst there is always high risk associated with explorers, PPP are about to prove themselves as a producer which reduces the investors risk and brings about a re rating.
The above combined with some promising exploration results provide the drivers for a re rating according to the Intersuisse report.
Further to the exploration aspect i have two questions.
The PPP Hector exploration is a 14.1% holding of a forecast potential of 1,000,000 Barrels.
How can we calculate the value of the potential 14% of 1,000,000 barrels versus the known 50000 bpd? Then what impact on the SP if Hector is upgraded to 2 or 3p?
you might want to have a look at this like which is a bloomberg report on the area pan pacific is drilling
New Zealand's Tui Oil Field May Set Payback Record (Update2)
By Gavin Evans
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's Tui oil project may set a world record for offshore fields by recouping $245 million of costs in three months, half the time for BHP Billiton Ltd.'s Shenzi venture in the U.S. Gulf, as higher prices boost returns.
Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd.'s Tui venture will pump its first crude this month, said Bruce Phillips, managing director of the Sydney-based explorer. The payback may be twice as fast as the next-best projects monitored by energy consultants John S. Herold Inc.
BHP's $4.4 billion Shenzi venture will be among the fastest of the world's major new offshore projects to reach break even, Herold's data show. Tui's economics will be enhanced by rapid initial production of high-quality oil, rising prices and better technology.
``You're going to see more projects like this,'' said Chris Ruppel, senior geopolitical analyst at Norwalk, Connecticut-based Herold. ``It's all being driven by the oil price.''
Shares of Australian Worldwide have risen more than fourfold in the past five years as revenue tripled. The stock ended up 3.1 percent, or 11 cents, at A$3.64 in Sydney today, matching its record close.
Assuming an oil and gas price equivalent to $60 a barrel, a search of published project costs and output data shows the next most economic developments pay for themselves in about six months, Ruppel said. These include BHP's Shenzi, which is due to start pumping 100,000 barrels and 50 million cubic feet of gas a day in 2009, Statoil ASA's $4.5 billion Gjoa field off Norway's southwest coast and the $500 million Oooguruk venture being developed by Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Eni SpA off Alaska.
Northwest of Maui
Tui, 42.5 percent owned by Australian Worldwide and 35 percent owned by Mitsui & Co., lies in 120 meters (400 feet) of water 50 kilometers (30 miles) off the west coast of New Zealand's North Island. It is northwest of the Maui gas field that Royal Dutch Shell Plc and its partners tapped for oil in 1996 and is the country's first offshore development for 11 years.
Like the Maui oil project, Tui will use a production and storage vessel to lift crude from three closely placed fields, Pateke, Amokura and Tui. The oil is similar to Tapis, the world's premier oil variety produced in Malaysia, which cost $77.46 a barrel at yesterday's close in Singapore.
The vessel, Umuroa, will initially pump 50,000 barrels a day. At the full Tapis price, Tui would pay for itself in 64 days.
`Interesting Phenomena'
Tui ``is an interesting phenomena,'' said Herold's Ruppel. ``Your typical offshore projects are more in the range of 10 to 15 years'' to break even because of their high cost and decline rates, he said.
While oil prices have doubled the past four years, a global shortage of engineers and equipment is now forcing up the capital cost of projects, undermining the economics of new ventures.
The Tui partners beat the worst of those cost increases by combining their design and tendering processes. Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc.'s Ocean Patriot rig was booked in mid-2005, five months before project approval was given, and standard undersea pipes and cabling equipment was picked to ensure quick supply.
Tui's other shareholders are New Zealand Oil & Gas with 12.5 percent and Pan Pacific Petroleum Ltd. with 10 percent.
First-year production from the 27.9 million-barrel Tui field will almost double New Zealand's oil output. By late-2008, when the OMV AG-led Maari project 65 kilometers south of Tui is due to start producing, oil and condensate production will exceed 66,000 barrels a day, beating the previous record set in 1997.
Shallow Fields
Still, Tui is small and its oil fields shallow. Within two years its flow rates are forecast to plunge to less than 10,000 barrels a day as the so-called water cut, or percentage of water in the oil increases. Over the life of the project Umuroa will handle 10 times as much water as crude.
Australian Worldwide will drill the nearby Taranui field in coming months to extend the life of the project and add as much as 15 million barrels to its reserves at lower cost, Phillips said in a June 27 interview. Cash flow from Tui will help the company drill for a potential 250 million barrels of oil in the Hector, Kopuwai and West Cape prospects in surrounding blocks in the third quarter.
``We are going to make very good profits out of the Tui,'' Phillips said. ``But we do want to reinvest some of those into finding more reserves
New Zealand's Tui Oil Field May Set Payback Record (Update2)
By Gavin Evans
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's Tui oil project may set a world record for offshore fields by recouping $245 million of costs in three months, half the time for BHP Billiton Ltd.'s Shenzi venture in the U.S. Gulf, as higher prices boost returns.
Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd.'s Tui venture will pump its first crude this month, said Bruce Phillips, managing director of the Sydney-based explorer. The payback may be twice as fast as the next-best projects monitored by energy consultants John S. Herold Inc.
BHP's $4.4 billion Shenzi venture will be among the fastest of the world's major new offshore projects to reach break even, Herold's data show. Tui's economics will be enhanced by rapid initial production of high-quality oil, rising prices and better technology.
``You're going to see more projects like this,'' said Chris Ruppel, senior geopolitical analyst at Norwalk, Connecticut-based Herold. ``It's all being driven by the oil price.''
Shares of Australian Worldwide have risen more than fourfold in the past five years as revenue tripled. The stock ended up 3.1 percent, or 11 cents, at A$3.64 in Sydney today, matching its record close.
Assuming an oil and gas price equivalent to $60 a barrel, a search of published project costs and output data shows the next most economic developments pay for themselves in about six months, Ruppel said. These include BHP's Shenzi, which is due to start pumping 100,000 barrels and 50 million cubic feet of gas a day in 2009, Statoil ASA's $4.5 billion Gjoa field off Norway's southwest coast and the $500 million Oooguruk venture being developed by Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Eni SpA off Alaska.
Northwest of Maui
Tui, 42.5 percent owned by Australian Worldwide and 35 percent owned by Mitsui & Co., lies in 120 meters (400 feet) of water 50 kilometers (30 miles) off the west coast of New Zealand's North Island. It is northwest of the Maui gas field that Royal Dutch Shell Plc and its partners tapped for oil in 1996 and is the country's first offshore development for 11 years.
Like the Maui oil project, Tui will use a production and storage vessel to lift crude from three closely placed fields, Pateke, Amokura and Tui. The oil is similar to Tapis, the world's premier oil variety produced in Malaysia, which cost $77.46 a barrel at yesterday's close in Singapore.
The vessel, Umuroa, will initially pump 50,000 barrels a day. At the full Tapis price, Tui would pay for itself in 64 days.
`Interesting Phenomena'
Tui ``is an interesting phenomena,'' said Herold's Ruppel. ``Your typical offshore projects are more in the range of 10 to 15 years'' to break even because of their high cost and decline rates, he said.
While oil prices have doubled the past four years, a global shortage of engineers and equipment is now forcing up the capital cost of projects, undermining the economics of new ventures.
The Tui partners beat the worst of those cost increases by combining their design and tendering processes. Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc.'s Ocean Patriot rig was booked in mid-2005, five months before project approval was given, and standard undersea pipes and cabling equipment was picked to ensure quick supply.
Tui's other shareholders are New Zealand Oil & Gas with 12.5 percent and Pan Pacific Petroleum Ltd. with 10 percent.
First-year production from the 27.9 million-barrel Tui field will almost double New Zealand's oil output. By late-2008, when the OMV AG-led Maari project 65 kilometers south of Tui is due to start producing, oil and condensate production will exceed 66,000 barrels a day, beating the previous record set in 1997.
Shallow Fields
Still, Tui is small and its oil fields shallow. Within two years its flow rates are forecast to plunge to less than 10,000 barrels a day as the so-called water cut, or percentage of water in the oil increases. Over the life of the project Umuroa will handle 10 times as much water as crude.
Australian Worldwide will drill the nearby Taranui field in coming months to extend the life of the project and add as much as 15 million barrels to its reserves at lower cost, Phillips said in a June 27 interview. Cash flow from Tui will help the company drill for a potential 250 million barrels of oil in the Hector, Kopuwai and West Cape prospects in surrounding blocks in the third quarter.
``We are going to make very good profits out of the Tui,'' Phillips said. ``But we do want to reinvest some of those into finding more reserves
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G'day All,
I have only recently registered on ASF. I have very much enjoyed reading fellow investors thoughts in ASF and think it is a wonderful website.
I am relatively new to investing in developing stocks. Have got into a couple of very promising stocks with SDL & SXP (when they were in the early 20cps) which are growing very nicely now. I have been watching PPP but not sure whether i have missed the boat or not on this one. Anyone have any thoughts on this stock and where it is at now?
I have only recently registered on ASF. I have very much enjoyed reading fellow investors thoughts in ASF and think it is a wonderful website.
I am relatively new to investing in developing stocks. Have got into a couple of very promising stocks with SDL & SXP (when they were in the early 20cps) which are growing very nicely now. I have been watching PPP but not sure whether i have missed the boat or not on this one. Anyone have any thoughts on this stock and where it is at now?
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Ann.
Oil Reserves
An interim post-drilling reserves review indicates that the proved+probable (“2P”) developed reserves for the project are 32.0 million barrels of recoverable oil. This compares to the 27.9 million barrels of undeveloped reserves reported prior to drilling the development wells and reflects an increase of approximately 15%. The above developed reserves are assessed to be recovered from the four completed wells within the ten year term of the charter of the Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel “Umuroa”.
In addition, potential for further “undeveloped” reserves has been identified in the Tui Area.
Oil Reserves
An interim post-drilling reserves review indicates that the proved+probable (“2P”) developed reserves for the project are 32.0 million barrels of recoverable oil. This compares to the 27.9 million barrels of undeveloped reserves reported prior to drilling the development wells and reflects an increase of approximately 15%. The above developed reserves are assessed to be recovered from the four completed wells within the ten year term of the charter of the Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel “Umuroa”.
In addition, potential for further “undeveloped” reserves has been identified in the Tui Area.
doctorj
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moneymajix, it seems you and I have similar tastes in stock.
Using 50kbopd, COGS of $30/bbl and the AUD @ 0.85 and Oil at USD65/bbl, I make out the NPV of PPP's share of the project to be around $140mill. Add back their Cash on Hand from 30 June 2007 and I make out a NPV/share of $0.29 (for interest's sake, using an exchange of 80c and Oil at $70, gives $0.346).
Then you add in drilling, particularly Maitland which TAP is very bullish on (they describe it as their largest unbooked resource) and is due for drilling soon, plus a potential 15mmboe on their current drilling adjacent to Tui and I think there's some value here.
I was expecting a little more in a resource upgrade, considering how their intersects on the production wells compared to their modelling, but perhaps there's scope for more to come.
Also, I think this company is being discounted a fair bit as it's essentially a holding company. I contacted Kim Ware, their company secretary, last Friday regarding the company's direction and was told he'd get back to me today. I'll share if he says anything interesting.
Using 50kbopd, COGS of $30/bbl and the AUD @ 0.85 and Oil at USD65/bbl, I make out the NPV of PPP's share of the project to be around $140mill. Add back their Cash on Hand from 30 June 2007 and I make out a NPV/share of $0.29 (for interest's sake, using an exchange of 80c and Oil at $70, gives $0.346).
Then you add in drilling, particularly Maitland which TAP is very bullish on (they describe it as their largest unbooked resource) and is due for drilling soon, plus a potential 15mmboe on their current drilling adjacent to Tui and I think there's some value here.
I was expecting a little more in a resource upgrade, considering how their intersects on the production wells compared to their modelling, but perhaps there's scope for more to come.
Also, I think this company is being discounted a fair bit as it's essentially a holding company. I contacted Kim Ware, their company secretary, last Friday regarding the company's direction and was told he'd get back to me today. I'll share if he says anything interesting.
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doctorj
You are not following me around, are you?
Never did hold EGO, my loss, I guess.
Other oilers I like atm are CTP and PYM.
They maybe of interest to you (or not).
LOL.
Cheers
Money
You are not following me around, are you?
Never did hold EGO, my loss, I guess.
Other oilers I like atm are CTP and PYM.
They maybe of interest to you (or not).
LOL.
Cheers
Money
doctorj
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Announcement out after market tonight - Maitland was spudded by Apache this morning.
http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070906/pdf/314f6cchclnbnv.pdf
http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070906/pdf/314f6cchclnbnv.pdf
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I held this stock for a few months, watched closely and was getting bored with some unsuccessful drilling and its fluctuation with no increase in sp ... sold last week. Since I sold share price has started going north ....tis my life!
I wont go back in now but large volume and sudden price rise on no immediate recent announcment tells me something significant is looming
good luck to holders
Pan Pacific Petroleums cash flows
Hi everyone.I have only just discovered and signed up for this forum and so this is my first posting.As a small longtime shareholder in pan pacific petroleum,(ppp), i have a vested interest in them and so am biased to that company.I am always amazed at the volatility in the share price and have used it to take some nice profits.However I cant understand why the market has not rewarded them with a more enduring rise in their value.Especially in view of the tremendous cash flows they are receiving from their 10 percent holding of the Taranaki oil fields off New Zealand, which is producing close to 50 thousand barrels per day.Also the oil price is hovering close to $100.If you dont believe me,check out ppps interim results.There is no knock on effect from the so called prime credit crunch on this stock.They will be rolling in cash in another 6 months,and with no debt.I reckon they would be worth buying if the price falls back to 23 cents again.Call your broker and get some advise and I am sure you will all be confident in investing in this stock for the long term.Cheers
Hi everyone.I have only just discovered and signed up for this forum and so this is my first posting.As a small longtime shareholder in pan pacific petroleum,(ppp), i have a vested interest in them and so am biased to that company.I am always amazed at the volatility in the share price and have used it to take some nice profits.However I cant understand why the market has not rewarded them with a more enduring rise in their value.Especially in view of the tremendous cash flows they are receiving from their 10 percent holding of the Taranaki oil fields off New Zealand, which is producing close to 50 thousand barrels per day.Also the oil price is hovering close to $100.If you dont believe me,check out ppps interim results.There is no knock on effect from the so called prime credit crunch on this stock.They will be rolling in cash in another 6 months,and with no debt.I reckon they would be worth buying if the price falls back to 23 cents again.Call your broker and get some advise and I am sure you will all be confident in investing in this stock for the long term.Cheers
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Re: Pan Pacific Petroleums cash flows
This ones been sleeping for a while on steady accumulation ........... Good support at 23 and 21 levels ................. Some interested buying again today ..........
Currently up 8% to 25 ............... Turning over lots of cash, so the fundamentals are also sound.
This ones been sleeping for a while on steady accumulation ........... Good support at 23 and 21 levels ................. Some interested buying again today ..........
Currently up 8% to 25 ............... Turning over lots of cash, so the fundamentals are also sound.
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Re: Pan Pacific Petroleums cash flows
Up another 7% on three times average volume today ...... turning over about $50,000.00 per day in gross oil sales with the current POO ......... generating some solid buying ....
Interesting to see if it can break 28 cents this run .... looks a possibility
Up another 7% on three times average volume today ...... turning over about $50,000.00 per day in gross oil sales with the current POO ......... generating some solid buying ....
Interesting to see if it can break 28 cents this run .... looks a possibility
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I've been keeping an eye on it and think it has some potential to surprise (in a good way) the market with their 07/08 full year accounts. What was the gist of the mention in MM?
An Oil Junior with More Momentum Than Crude…
By Gabriel Andre
The energy sector in the Aussie market continues to outstrip other industries. Crude hit an all time-high of US$143 in New York last night. We see a few oil juniors moving with it. Pan Pacific Petroleum (ASXPP) is one stock that can keep this up.
The stock has dug itself a nice little channel, trending upwards. Sellers have tried to push PPP outside this channel a couple of times. They’ve done nothing more than create false break-outs. They couldn’t establish momentum.
That’s really the story of the energy sector at the moment: momentum. Selling in hope of a correction is like stepping in front of a freight train, hoping to find a dollar on the tracks. These false break-outs on PPP’s chart are typical traps for short-term traders. Don’t fall into one of them.
No…instead…look at the company’s upside potential. Between points H and E on the chart, the stock added 49%. That’s a feel-good gain for less than two months work.
Since then it has corrected. We don’t think it’ll go all the way back to the trend’s resistance line though. Take a look at how Fibonacci traders have treated it.
That 61.8% Fibonacci level is now a strong intermediary support. PPP has consolidated from there. With that support underneath it, a few indicators argue for the next leg of profits.
The MACD just crossed its signal line. Take note of that. The MACD has given off good signals like clockwork for PPP. We don’t expect that to change now.
The Stochastic Momentum Index is also bullish. It’s a similar story. The trend is up, and it just crossed the signal line. There’s a good chance selling in this stock has finished.
Keep tabs on where PPP closes today. If it’s up, that’s as good a confirmation as you’re going to get. In that case, it’d probably move on to test resistance at 34 cents.
Good investing,
Gabriel Andre
By Gabriel Andre
The energy sector in the Aussie market continues to outstrip other industries. Crude hit an all time-high of US$143 in New York last night. We see a few oil juniors moving with it. Pan Pacific Petroleum (ASX
PP) is one stock that can keep this up.The stock has dug itself a nice little channel, trending upwards. Sellers have tried to push PPP outside this channel a couple of times. They’ve done nothing more than create false break-outs. They couldn’t establish momentum.
That’s really the story of the energy sector at the moment: momentum. Selling in hope of a correction is like stepping in front of a freight train, hoping to find a dollar on the tracks. These false break-outs on PPP’s chart are typical traps for short-term traders. Don’t fall into one of them.
No…instead…look at the company’s upside potential. Between points H and E on the chart, the stock added 49%. That’s a feel-good gain for less than two months work.
Since then it has corrected. We don’t think it’ll go all the way back to the trend’s resistance line though. Take a look at how Fibonacci traders have treated it.
That 61.8% Fibonacci level is now a strong intermediary support. PPP has consolidated from there. With that support underneath it, a few indicators argue for the next leg of profits.
The MACD just crossed its signal line. Take note of that. The MACD has given off good signals like clockwork for PPP. We don’t expect that to change now.
The Stochastic Momentum Index is also bullish. It’s a similar story. The trend is up, and it just crossed the signal line. There’s a good chance selling in this stock has finished.
Keep tabs on where PPP closes today. If it’s up, that’s as good a confirmation as you’re going to get. In that case, it’d probably move on to test resistance at 34 cents.
Good investing,
Gabriel Andre
