Potential Trend Reversals

[dj_420]

just wondering what others think of this thread. at ASF we have a breakout thread, potential breakout thread, what about creating a potential trend reversal thread?

as everyone knows not all stocks are going up all the time. my point is that we can pool knowledge regarding downtrending/uptrending stocks and pick indicators of trend reversal.

for eg, zinc stocks have come right off the boil last couple months, we saw CBH hit bottom arounr 55 cents, KZL around 4.95, ZFX around 15.60. spot price of zinc has come off the highs and i believe many zinc stocks were oversold.

we had several indicators of the selling trend reversing and there are some easy gains 10% plus over 2-3 days for most zinc stocks when trend reversed and stocks bounced.

obviously many people dont like the idea of stocks downtrending or shorting a stock, but as people learn more and more it opens the door for potentially many different trading opportunities.

this thread would not have to be limited to downtrends either, if a stock has been uptrending and there are also signals of trend reversal should be posted here, as people may have the opportunity to short the stock.


just wondering what peoples opinions on this are?

 

[Sean K]

Might have legs.

Is it too similar to the breakout thread?

Maybe it should be called ORDINARY breakout alerts??

I agree that it could be educational, in that it will give people a better idea about what a trend reversal is compared to an OUTSTANDING breakout, or breakdown...

 

[Magdoran]

Just wondering why this is in the derivative area. Shouldn’t this be in the stock discussion area with the “outstanding breakout alerts” kind of thread?

Mag

 

[Joe Blow]

Just wondering why this is in the derivative area. Shouldn’t this be in the stock discussion area with the “outstanding breakout alerts” kind of thread?

Mag

Indeed it should. Thread moved.

 

[sydneysider]

Indeed it should. Thread moved.

Good idea Joe. I am seeing a substantial amount of detrioration in the u sector. Stocks with very recent bullish quarterlies taken to the woodshed i.e. AEE & ERN. Technicals such as stochastics and OBV turning down and chart patterns denoting distribution and lower lows.

 

[alankew]

Can we have a translation service for the foreigners(Me-what does taken to the woolshed mean-I have a good idea but just need clarification)

 

[nioka]

I don't know if this one is a potential trend reversal or a continuation of a downward trend but it is one which for no fundamental reason has reached a low that it has not been at for some time. MAE Any comments?

 

[chris1983]

Good idea Joe. I am seeing a substantial amount of detrioration in the u sector. Stocks with very recent bullish quarterlies taken to the woodshed i.e. AEE & ERN. Technicals such as stochastics and OBV turning down and chart patterns denoting distribution and lower lows.

ERN hit bottom on the 8th..touching 50 cents..and has since moved into an upward trend now sitting at 60. I mean they are only sitting 10 cents off their high. A couple of months back they were touching 40 cents. I dont see any lower lows. Few sellers today but they all got soaked up pretty well and it only went as low as 58..closing even at 60.

Buyer depth has dried up though. I think they are sitting on the sidelines waiting to move in.

 

[nioka]

Can we have a translation service for the foreigners(Me-what does taken to the woolshed mean-I have a good idea but just need clarification)

Usually someone was taken to the woolshed to be given a good "dusting over".

 

[barney]

Usually someone was taken to the woolshed to be given a good "dusting over".

Actually Sydneysider said the "Woodshed" ............ Is there any differentiation between the type of sheds that we can be "dusted over" in ?? ............. I think I would prefer the woolshed ..... not too keen on being dusted by the axe!! .............. My apologies ... silly post ... its the "John Cleese" coming out in me .................

Actually I think the idea of a "trend reversal" thread would possibly be a great "teaching" thread .............. perhaps Magdoran and other more learned chaps/ladies could drop in again and shed some light on any techniques for identifying them .........

 

[dodgers]

how about the asx? looks to be near a short-term high (wave 5 of 5 of 3?)

anyone thinking of shorting soon?

 

[moses]

RAU, up 23% and oppies up 63% today. But its the volume this morning that makes it look interesting.

 

[moses]

PRE is showing support at 0.031 and an above average pile of larger orders waiting in the queue. The Neilson SMA chart shows this as an increase in both the quantity and quality of buy orders left at the end of day (relative to sell orders), suggesting that some "smarter" buyers who understand the stock may be hoping to pick up this stock at a good price before it takes off.

 

[moses]

EMP is showing some good signs of a trend reversal.

1) its up 13% this morning

2) the Neilson SMA chart indicates a steadily growing buying pressure in quality and volume.

 

[jtb]

Hi moses,

Any chance you can apply your technical prowess to the descending triangle apparent on AAR?

It looks to be on its way to 0.09c ish but I don't think it will get there unless something goes pear shaped.

INL looks like a classic but I don't think I'm brave enough

Appreciate any input

 

[moses]

Hi jtb,

AAR isn't showing signs of anything interesting; the most positive thing I could say from the SMA chart is that both the SP and buying quality is holding flat while the number of buyers v sellers fall (blue line), so perhaps when the punters return the SP will rise.

However INL is quite a different story. If you believe the Neilson SMA chart is a useful indicator (as I do) then INL is showing great signs of a potential trend reversal. Thanks for pointing it out; I've just bought back in.

 

[dj_420]

im just waiting for when URA trend reverses, will happen when they ann that they have secured rozna etc.

im waiting on sidelines for that day. until then the trend is still down.

 

[CanOz]

Certainly the possibility of some absorbtion volume happening in INL, defineatly on the watchlist now.

Cheers,

 

[moses]

im just waiting for when URA trend reverses, will happen when they ann that they have secured rozna etc.

Me too. Just for the hell of it, here is the SMA chart. Its had a few false starts before so I don't read anything special in it today...but...who knows, we may be in for a bottom picking session now. Trouble with URA is that when it takes off it goes like a rocket and its always too late to get on board.

 

[new_trader1984]

Hi Moses,

Would you be able to share your thoughts on gdn thanks?

I use the phoenix ai with the 3 different levels for the demand and smart money and the 2 days 9-10th july smart money was entering during the day. Also back around 28th june to 3rd july smart money was entering at 35-44 cents.

Does your chart suggest the same happened, the last 2 days has been a bit different on the charts but thats because of a seller with almost 2 million shares keeps moving their amount between different price levels which is affecting the demand but doesnt sell any shares.

Would appreciate your thoughts on gdn.

Thanks.

Also when you use the smart money charts do you use any other indicators to help with deciding on a stock to buy?