Neilson Smart Money Analyser: POTENTIAL price action

[moses]

Its not working for me either tonight.

 

[ric371]

Response to my email asking when it will be fixed follows

Response 1
We seem to have had a technical glitch with our price data.
It will be rectified as soon as possible
Sorry for any inconvenience.
Regards,

Asked when = response 2

Not looking good for today – sorry.
Our tech has now gone home sick. It may happen but not likely. Probably fixed on the weekend.

Sorry for any inconvenience

 

[tech/a]

as important as we all know actual traded volume is for a signal, its big weakness is that it is *history*, whereas we want to know the future.

Moses.
You would do well to study Wycoff on volume analysis,you may well change some of your bias

 

[ric371]

Moses.
You would do well to study Wycoff on volume analysis,you may well change some of your bias

That comment is about as helpful as a brick to a window.
Who is Wycoff and what makes you think that Wycoff knows more than Inside trader?
If Wycoff is so good what about posting some information and links to the data?

 

[tech/a]

What Moses/you arent capable of looking into it.

Your money has been spent and your pretty excited.
Its just another tool.
Volume analysis has been around as long as markets have been trading.

Your delusional if you think looking at market depth on both sides of the market is purportrating "Smart Money".

"Smart Money" will be buying and or selling all day at a point or points AT market with little effect on price movement.

So go do your own research and find out who Richard Wykoff is.
If your a serious analyst it'll help you too (change in pig attitude wouldnt hurt either).

 

[tech/a]

BLR--- slightly up
HLX---hmmm
GSE---hmmm
BLG---Up
MST---hmmm
DYL---hmmm
AEX---hmmm
EXT---up

Less than 50/50 cant see an edge here?

 

[tech/a]

ASX---up
AZZ---hmmm
MCC---hmmm
NTU---Slightly up
IDL---UP
TRF---hmmm
CMO---up
CCS---hmmm
LOD---hmmm
SRK---hmmm
TFE---hmmm

From those posted and looked at from the first 2 pages on this thread.

7 up 12----well.

Volume analysis can be very powerful---but I cant see any genius here.
Mind you Inside Trader are doing very well out of it it seems.
I get an email a day!!
If it was that good people would be running to sign up purely on performance.

If traders are happy with this sort of performance then go for it!

 

[Kauri]

The Smart Money is sitting back reaping $550 pa x (No. of subscribers).

The indicators are based on an end of day scan taken from the depth queue after the market has closed each day. They compare the buying pressure of the shares (the supply demand indicator, blue line) to the pressure of the individual buyers (smart money indicator, black line) which we can see in the depth queue. Simply, when the black line increases, it means that the buyers (on average) are prepared to buy more shares than the sellers are prepared to sell. When the black line goes down, it means that the sellers (on average) want to sell more shares than people are prepared to buy.

mmmm.. might slip in a bid for 500,000 shares in one of these penny stocks after close, and pull it during the AM auction.... or would that be cheating???

 

[reece55]

That about sums it up Kauri

For anyone who has access to a full market depth screen, you will quickly learn that volume can and does get manipulated. Further more, the lower the turnover, the easier it is to do so....... You would be better off spending the $500 on a good book or real time market data IMO.....

Cheers

 

[ric371]

What Moses/you arent capable of looking into it.

Your money has been spent and your pretty excited.
Its just another tool.
Volume analysis has been around as long as markets have been trading.

Your delusional if you think looking at market depth on both sides of the market is purportrating "Smart Money".

"Smart Money" will be buying and or selling all day at a point or points AT market with little effect on price movement.

So go do your own research and find out who Richard Wykoff is.
If your a serious analyst it'll help you too (change in pig attitude wouldnt hurt either).

So who has the attitude problem? all we are doing is trying to learn more about this complex industry and asking honest and serious questions and bouncing idears around, if you can't offer a positive suggestion then I would prefer not to have to read your posts.

I have been in the business of investing for a long time, long enough to know there is no one answer for if there were we would all do the same thing at the same time.

Perhaps your blinkers need to come off and open your mind to some possibilities, instead of geting hung up on the term "smart money"

It would also help you you were able to spell the name correctly it is "Wyckoff" and he did his thing 100 years ago, who knows if he had access to computer power of today he may have developed his own smart money analyser?

 

[tech/a]

if you can't offer a positive suggestion then I would prefer not to have to read your posts.

Stick me on ignore,works a treat.

he may have developed his own smart money analyser?

He and others who have carried on his works have and way more advanced than this crude tool---but you'll have to find that yourself---as you asked so nicely.

"Smart Money" will be buying and or selling all day at a point or points AT market with little effect on price movement.

Obviously cant recognise a positive suggestion if you fell over it.

Just so you understand look for bars of narrow range and high volume at bottoms and tops of moves---Thats "Smart Money" moving in and out.

Now if you just "duck" (sorry about the pun!) over to here you'll see Ive been holding this for a little while myself.

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=74;t=000029;p=5

Seems there are others who have been in the business of investing a long time.

 

[ric371]

I am here to learn, not to throw sticks and sarcastic comments so I will take your one logical suggestion and stick you on ignore

 

[Bobby]

So who has the attitude problem? all we are doing is trying to learn more about this complex industry and asking honest and serious questions and bouncing idears around, if you can't offer a positive suggestion then I would prefer not to have to read your posts.

I have been in the business of investing for a long time, long enough to know there is no one answer for if there were we would all do the same thing at the same time.

Perhaps your blinkers need to come off and open your mind to some possibilities, instead of geting hung up on the term "smart money"

It would also help you you were able to spell the name correctly it is "Wyckoff" and he did his thing 100 years ago, who knows if he had access to computer power of today he may have developed his own smart money analyser?

ric371,

Back off Tech/a now.
Hope you understand !!

Bob.

 

[tech/a]

not to throw sticks and sarcastic comments --------That comment is about as helpful as a brick to a window.

Hahahaha
Nor did I!!

 

[CanOz]

So who has the attitude problem? all we are doing is trying to learn more about this complex industry and asking honest and serious questions and bouncing idears around, if you can't offer a positive suggestion then I would prefer not to have to read your posts.

I have been in the business of investing for a long time, long enough to know there is no one answer for if there were we would all do the same thing at the same time.

Perhaps your blinkers need to come off and open your mind to some possibilities, instead of geting hung up on the term "smart money"

It would also help you you were able to spell the name correctly it is "Wyckoff" and he did his thing 100 years ago, who knows if he had access to computer power of today he may have developed his own smart money analyser?

Hi Ric, if you could see past T/As sarcasm and look through some previous post and threads you'll see that he is a well respected member of the forum and known through out Australian trading circles as a sucessful trader and mentor to many.

If their was truly something of value in the Nielson SMA he and the rest of us would have been very supportive of the theory I'm sure.

In fact we count on the T/As, the Kenna's, the Wayne's, etc., to keep us up to date on valid analysis techniques.

I'm sure Moses understands and accepts T/As posts as good advice and only looking out for his best interests.



Cheers,

 

[nizar]

Smart money dont wait in the depth.

Coz if you have 10,000,000 shares to sell, placing the bid there would "Scare" the rest of the market, causing the market price to drop, and you get less money for your parcel.
Or if you want to buy, you dont want to put a massive bid in there as it will make the price go up, or is likely to do so.

Smart money, like tech/a described with the QBE chart, ALWAYS buy/sell at market, and do so in a manner to get the price as cheap as they can, or to offload as expensive as they can. Its because of their stealth that they are called smart money.

And i personally think there is some truth to professionals closing the market and newbies opening it - though i havent proved this.

 

[stoxclimber]

Don't see how its any different to other technical tools that arent proven to work.



edit: not to name any names, but if one looks at the post history of a highly respected technical trader/analyst on ASF, theres no evidence of superior returns. Would be an interesting introspective analysis for ASF posters to go through - looking at their post history and seeing how their predictions performed.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Moses.
You would do well to study Wycoff on volume analysis,you may well change some of your bias

I just can't find my copy, to give you the isbn number, but agree that it is an invaluable text for analysis but not for entries, look it up on asf, amazon or others. Its not a big read.

Garpal

 

[Kauri]

I just can't find my copy, to give you the isbn number, but agree that it is an invaluable text for analysis but not for entries, look it up on asf, amazon or others. Its not a big read.

Garpal

I agree the book doesn't have a lot of depth, around the web there are a few resources that go deeper.. i.e..
http://www.activetradermag.com/special/pruden01-0201.pdf

The author of this snippet is putting a book out... due in a month or two from memory.

The Wyckoff book link..below.. as they say DYOR for virii etc..

 

[moses]

I'm sure Moses understands and accepts T/As posts as good advice and only looking out for his best interests.

I certainly do. Tech/A, I'm all ears, I'm here to learn.

I will buy the SVM package, and I will read the book; I don't reject advice from good experienced people, but that doesn't mean I won't challenge stuff from time to time in order to understand it. I was hoping Nick Radge would engage with a reply re. volume/history, but you've probably answered that in your example.

Yes, your definition of smart money is much better than Neilsons; but for all that and for all the skepticism expressed to date, for a certain class of stock the SMA really does seem to pick up a signal in the market that may otherwise be missed. Certainly it was being missed by me (but that isn't saying much), so its been a positive step and I'm happy with it atm. Yes, its not 100% reliable (nothing is) and doesn't stand alone, and yes it is important not the folow the signal blindly, but...at the end of the day, if it gives me an edge I'll use it.

But I'm all ears for a better edge.

PS. I'm looking for stocks that will move say within a week to 3 months, from 50% to 500%. I'm not promoting the SMA for day trading, which makes me wonder if our wires are getting crossed?