Potential FX Trading setups

[>Apocalypto<]

Current AUD$
9365 support holding well descending triangle still in short tern down trend... waiting for direction no trades atm.

Sold AUD$ descending support getting tested to now broken... that was enough for me to jump back in. still short Gold will try to carry these till late tonight/tomorrow.

 

[Kryzz]

Been a long while between drinks here!

Hope everyone has been cleaning up w the FX trends in the market the last 6-12 months.

AUDNZD might be poised for a reversal here at resistance, weekly chart shown.

 

[Kryzz]

Bit of a pull back in another cracker trend here with the NZDUSD.

 

[AverageJoe]

Not the best looking pin bar on Silver daily forming pre-NY Close but could be signalling a reversal?

 

[Kryzz]

Couple of setups here for the AUDCAD and GBPAUD

 

[Kryzz]

Couple more interesting setups with with the EURGBP & EURAUD

 

[grah33]

interesting thread. initially i was into 4h trend following (still testing, hopefully it will work, scored about 0R-5R from first 20 live trades, maybe that's normal to get from time to time ie it's treading...) but S/R bounces might be even easier.

Kryzz:just wondering are u still profitable? looks like you're getting heaps of setups to choose from - it seems simple and easy to just do the same thing over and over using different pairs.

i recently did a quick manual backtest about 20 trades on h1 and h4 each (using at least 2 point TL + a bounce as the trigger) and seems to work even on h1 ...

 

[Kryzz]

Kryzz:just wondering are u still profitable? looks like you're getting heaps of setups to choose from - it seems simple and easy to just do the same thing over and over using different pairs.
.

Hi Graph,

I'll be honest, hasn't been a profitable year for me so far. Down around -5%. I've highlighted what I reckon is most important out of what you stated....being consistent.

This is something I haven't been doing too well, especially over the past month (I trade off the daily timeframe however my last 5 or 6 trades I entered at market when looking at the hourly chart. Why I did this is anyone's guess, they all turned out to be losers)

 

[Kryzz]

Here are my 5 open positions if as a quick FYI too mate, I'm predicting majority get stopped out once the election concludes this w/e

I hope your testing keeps going well

 

[grah33]

well Kyzz, hope you overcome this if that's the barrier to succeeding. maybe you should take your live trades and backtest them using the way you were meant to do it and see what score you get to verify it works (for the D1 trades). in my little tests, take profit 2R seemed to work nicely enough. but i'm still not profitable in anything yet, even after a long time. you seem to take correlated trades too ( i don't do that), maybe you are increasing risk this way. i see people are using just one R/S point as well, in many examples.

 

[CanOz]

Did you get on the Yen short Kryzz? Would have been long USD/JPY, nice risk on trade after the election.

 

[Kryzz]

Did you get on the Yen short Kryzz? Would have been long USD/JPY, nice risk on trade after the election.
View attachment 70843

Hey CanOZ, I missed the Yen short. I copped a fair whack after the election on Monday, but covered most of the losses with a USDMXN long.

Currently short on the EURGBP and USDCAD.

 

[grah33]

what type of win rate are u guys (and girls ) expecting? and what percent per month (the timeframe too i'd like to know)? i'm thinking just a few percent each month e.g. 3R is a great result due to compounding....tough trading

 

[Kryzz]

what type of win rate are u guys (and girls ) expecting? and what percent per month (the timeframe too i'd like to know)? i'm thinking just a few percent each month e.g. 3R is a great result due to compounding....tough trading

I had tried trading off the daily/4 hour charts for a number of months and couldn't really do better than break even really and a win rate of about 45/50%.

I didn't have the time to trade FX daily with other strategies. I've been sizing up on the weekly time frames and have been doing much better.

Currently short GBPAUD, long NZDUSD. Correlated at -0.59, not ideal but not too bad.

 

[grah33]

i'm surprised as your setups look nice, you know what you're doing, and you're using a seemingly common well known strategy. so i'm thinking it should work. u just need a few R /month on average i would think...

maybe it's all false (what we read..). don't know.

thanks for sharing...

 

[cogs]

Hi Kryzz,

Your choice of entries look very similar to what/how I enter, you should be cruzing?

Are you over leveraging or something, forcing you out?

I'll throw this one out there I currently have running on EURGBP. These are all shorts and small lots. It's not one of my proudest trades but it works. I entered my first (bottom) position I think while viewing and lower time frame but didn't get out (must have been asleep or something when it continued), no biggy just average in from here.
I know it's simply rising shorter term to fill the top gap 0.873 - 0.879 plus this point is near the top of longer term tops 4 hourly, daily, weekly, monthly. I'll add to my shorts and/or lot size over days nearer to the top of the range, factoring in noise, simply bringing my break even (or take profit) right up to the top, or not.

I know there is a gap down at 0.849 - 0.837 and a lot of unfinished business from 0.82 down to 0.77 so I am in no rush and price will drop down to tend to these gaps over time. GBPUSD needs to rise to fill unfinished biz, the EURUSD has taken off before GBP so there will be a reversal with EURGBP when the GBP starts it's upward leg again.
Another pro about this is positive swap earning interest while I do my day job.

I am not offering any advice just sharing my bit which lets me sleep at night and I don't have to worry about manipulation or any funny business.

 

[Kryzz]

Hi Kryzz,

Your choice of entries look very similar to what/how I enter, you should be cruzing?

Are you over leveraging or something, forcing you out?

I'll throw this one out there I currently have running on EURGBP. These are all shorts and small lots. It's not one of my proudest trades but it works. I entered my first (bottom) position I think while viewing and lower time frame but didn't get out (must have been asleep or something when it continued), no biggy just average in from here.
I know it's simply rising shorter term to fill the top gap 0.873 - 0.879 plus this point is near the top of longer term tops 4 hourly, daily, weekly, monthly. I'll add to my shorts and/or lot size over days nearer to the top of the range, factoring in noise, simply bringing my break even (or take profit) right up to the top, or not.

I know there is a gap down at 0.849 - 0.837 and a lot of unfinished business from 0.82 down to 0.77 so I am in no rush and price will drop down to tend to these gaps over time. GBPUSD needs to rise to fill unfinished biz, the EURUSD has taken off before GBP so there will be a reversal with EURGBP when the GBP starts it's upward leg again.
Another pro about this is positive swap earning interest while I do my day job.

I am not offering any advice just sharing my bit which lets me sleep at night and I don't have to worry about manipulation or any funny business.
View attachment 71401

Hi Cogs

I wish I was cruising! I feel like I am now that I am looking at longer term time frames. The positive swap is handy, I have the EURGBP on my watchlist too, if there's no reversal at these levels I will be awaiting to see what happens if it gets to 0.90.

Longer term I'm also looking at the AUDUSD. It seems to have locked in a low at the beginning of 2016 and is making higher lows, if the RBA starts to steadily rise rates it portends for a nice carry trade too.

Are the blue lines on your charts stops? Seems close to current price with the UK election later this week.

 

[cogs]

Hi kryzz,
No, those are gaps to be filled. They haven't "fixed" the data since the actual event.

Here is another for silver I captured some time ago, but they have "fixed" the data gaps, but I know where they are. Guess where silver price is now...

 

[grah33]

hey kyrzz,
if you're doing the same thing as cogs perhaps your idea works. maybe other months will bring much better results, and u were just unlucky. i wonder though if weekly trading can bring in enough R per month to be worthwhile...

 

[Kryzz]

hey kyrzz,
if you're doing the same thing as cogs perhaps your idea works. maybe other months will bring much better results, and u were just unlucky. i wonder though if weekly trading can bring in enough R per month to be worthwhile...

Hopefully by aiming to capture the larger longer term trends/moves there will be plenty of R to be gained Grah, not sure if it will be measured on a monthly basis, probably a bit longer term.

Currently short GBPAUD, long NZDUSD. Correlated at -0.59, not ideal but not too bad.

Still holding shorts with the GBPAUD entered into from mid May with an open profit of 500+ pips and 230+ for the NZDUSD long (will be looking to take profits around the 0.73 area for this trade)