Potential & Breakout trading--Technical tips and tricks

[Frank D]

BTA:-

BTA hit 1.39 and sold off.

It is still in a breakout pattern from 1.09, but now you would need it to move into a
3-week consolidating pattern, before looking for the next set-up sometime in February/March

 

[tech/a]

Excellent Frank.

 

[tech/a]

Here is a trade that did not work out for me that I and others may be able to learn from.

My thoughts/reasoning:
I bought in at 98c (stop set at 92c - Tuesday's low) on Wednesday after it broke out on Tuesday on high volume.
After viewing the chart that afternoon, I decided to sell based on the down bar, closing on it's low.
It sold today at 93c before my stop was hit.

So what did I do wrong? Any advice/comments/constructive criticism would be appreciated.

N.B. I can only trade EOD.

Just a few initial comments.
Visitors just over so will do some more tomorrow.

 

[Frank D]

BTA:- Dilernia Model

BTA is in a Quarterly cycle breakout (January) that can continue to trend towards
highs in April:- break and extend pattern

We can see the new dynamic highs in February highs @ 1.43/48, but 1.39 can
continue to resist the stock from rising.

As noted from my previous post, BTA was likely to move into a 3-week
consolidation pattern, which just ended, and BTA could see another push upwards
this week using 1.32 as the trend guide.

However, my ideal pattern on BTA would be to use the trailing Weekly lows as
support. They are currently @ 1.12/14, but at time moves forward, those Weekly
lows will shift upwards.

The Weekly lows will be used as part of the expectation that they will provide
support for the completion of the move into the Next Quarterly cycle highs in April.

 

[Frank D]

BTA (Dilernia Model)

BTA has continued into the February highs @ 1.43/48 and stalled.

The critical level on BTA is 1.39 once again.

if it remains above 1.39 then the expectation is that the trend will continue
towards higher highs in April.

Below 1.39 and expectation is that price will rotate back into the trailing support
levels, defined by the 3-week lows...which are currently @ 1.20, matching the
monthly 50% level.


The Weekly lows (validated) will be used as part of the expectation that
they will provide support for the completion of the move into the Next Quarterly
cycle highs in April.

 

[Synergy]

Looking for thoughts on CSS...

My gut feel is that it's gearing up to again move up, but the initial reversal was pretty convincing also. The last 2 candles are quite encouraging with their low volume and closing on highs after small retraces.

While it's above the green line I'd be hopeful of another move up.

 

[Synergy]

Still much the same story. Tomorrow could give a clearer idea of where it's heading.

 

[Frank D]

BTA

Completed the double monthly high pattern in February @ 1.48, followed by a
reversal back down.

Normally the 3-week lows (validated) will provide support for the trend to
continue towards higher highs in the following Quarter.

However, the 3-week lows weren't validated, resulting in the trend moving back
down to retest the monthly breakout @ 1.09, but closing below the
Weekly lows @ 1.20

Therefore, in the short-term the trend may continue to remain flat until price is
back above the weekly 50%.

Note;- price is below the Quarterly 50% level @ 1.39

Because if this, it could take until the start of the following Quarter for the
next ideal set-up.

 

[Frank D]

BTA

BTA is still bearish and may continue down towards .97 cents, and lower

If above 1.11 next week, then we begin to look for a move back towards 1.25
over the next 2-weeks

And then look for the next ideal set-up using the 2nd Quarterly 50% level
from April onwards, for a potential trend towards 1.58+

 

[tech/a]

Panning out as expected Frank

 

[suhm]

Its cases like this which makes me want to learn more about T/A so that I would be confident making decisions on price action, as it is always hard to know when to buy or sell using FA as I am buying because I want to sell at multiples of the current share price because that is what I think that the company should be worth. I may be right that the company is worth much more than what the price is but given that the price is lower than what you see the value as there is no reason why the price can't go down further.
I'm also not warren buffett so I can't buy enough of the company so that I can buy all the stock that I want until everyone who wants to sell below what price I want to pay has sold.

 

[tech/a]

Its cases like this which makes me want to learn more about T/A so that I would be confident making decisions on price action, as it is always hard to know when to buy or sell using FA as I am buying because I want to sell at multiples of the current share price because that is what I think that the company should be worth. I may be right that the company is worth much more than what the price is but given that the price is lower than what you see the value as there is no reason why the price can't go down further.
I'm also not warren buffett so I can't buy enough of the company so that I can buy all the stock that I want until everyone who wants to sell below what price I want to pay has sold.

This is always the dilema with fundamental trading.
This technical technique (Franks and other methods) would help fundamentalists in their timing of their trade.

My initial comments

Just a few initial comments.
Visitors just over so will do some more tomorrow.

View attachment 40980

Now the follow up

 

[Frank D]

BTA:-

Random support @ .93/97

 

[sammy84]

As you can see from the green arrows my scan is designed to find these setups.
From the ASX 300 I may get 10 to 20 candidates on any night in a bullish market and that is where a quick eyeball of the results usually narrow it down to maybe 2 or 3 to watch.
Patterns similiar to those at the highlighted area on the SRL chart just stand out like the proverbial at first glance especially when they pop up three days in row.

Hmmmmm.....I think this maybe missing a chart.

 

[Frank D]

BTA

BTA currently supported.

Next Week's Trend guide $1.00

It's either going to swing back towards the April 50% levels.

or it's going to struggle to remain above $1.00 for the next 2-weeks, and then
continue down into April's lows @ .69/73

 

[Frank D]

BTA:-

Pleasant surprise on BTA, as I was only expecting a reversal pattern to the
April 50% levels @ 1.13/15 from previous week's lows.

Instead today has gapped open, (exit on open), and based on the current the price action...

There is a possible move up towards 1.80....

Trend guide 1.33/40

 

[pavilion103]

Thanks to all the guys who have posted on here. It has been incredibly useful. I've taken screen shots/saved pictures for a large number of posts so I have them on file and can go back over them all.

Thanks,
Matt

 

[tech/a]

Will crank this up again in the coming days.
But some initial food for thought.

ALL trends START with a breakout.

NOT ALL breakouts are EQUAL

There are breakouts everyday so how do we find those with greatest potential.

There are also many types of breakouts.

PRICE
VOLUME
TREND
PATTERN
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE

How often do we limit ourselves to opportunity?

 

[TheAbyss]

Will crank this up again in the coming days.
But some initial food for thought.

ALL trends START with a breakout.

NOT ALL breakouts are EQUAL

There are breakouts everyday so how do we find those with greatest potential.

There are also many types of breakouts.

PRICE
VOLUME
TREND
PATTERN
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE

How often do we limit ourselves to opportunity?

Excellent. Look forward to your work Tech.

Is the attached a valid break? Not sure if a 3 year weekly is a valid time frame for a stock like WDR?

Cheers mate

 

[pavilion103]

I've found that a lot of people seem to trade bar charts rather than candlestick by the looks of it. Is it easier to identify a number of these tips and 'tricks' using bar charts (especially VSA)?