Potential Breakout Alerts!

[NextBigThing]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

I agree with the above alert. Have been holding for quite some time, only a matter of time before this explodes. Highly undervalued at this stage.

 

[lenny]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

BRM has formed a nice symetrical triangle above strong support and the trend is up, This might present a nice oppurtunity to join next leg higher with a break to the upside.

GL All

Lenny

 

[cropcos]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

NWH looks like its trying to break out of an ascending triangle

 

[cropcos]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

harvey norman forming a symmetrical triangle which could break to the upside

 

[lukeaye]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Well i am very excited this morning. Take a look at this chart.

Some serious demand comming in on molopo the last few days.

I bought in this morning.

check out that volume! Texstbook Basing pattern. Im guessing supply will run out in a matter of a day to 2 days.

 

[mrormmy]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Agreed 100% with mpo, been watch for some time till they hit bottem.

Bought in y-day.

 

[lukeaye]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

I am convinced it is accumulation, on the daily it looks distributive, but analyses lesser time frames we can see that it is demand absorbing supply, then followed by large spread moves higher on lower volume. Clear sign in my mind of supply being exhausted.

I predict a very good news related item in the next few days, as there is clearly some smart money which has some information not public yet.

 

[lukeaye]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

What im talking about is best seen on this chart, the 15 min

 

[skc]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

What im talking about is best seen on this chart, the 15 min

Keen observation. As you pointed out the daily still look like a bearish flag, and possibly inverted head and shoulders. And the volume on the dailies are reducing...

Thought I'd just throw the chart in for good measure. $1.28 is a key level.

May the force be with you... during xmas parties

 

[lukeaye]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Keen observation. As you pointed out the daily still look like a bearish flag, and possibly inverted head and shoulders. And the volume on the dailies are reducing...

Thought I'd just throw the chart in for good measure. $1.28 is a key level.

May the force be with you... during xmas parties

Could this be some sort of deliberate hidden buying, to fool others into selling at lower prices? Because lets face it not everyone has access to tick data, so to 99% of people this is a short set-up?

this would enable the smart money to

(a) Supply themselves at lower prices
(b) remove excess supply to enable much higher prices.

I just doubled my position this morning, im so sure of this.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Could this be some sort of deliberate hidden buying, to fool others into selling at lower prices? Because lets face it not everyone has access to tick data, so to 99% of people this is a short set-up?

this would enable the smart money to

(a) Supply themselves at lower prices
(b) remove excess supply to enable much higher prices.

I just doubled my position this morning, im so sure of this.

Hi luke, i was trading this on a much shorter timeframe and bailed out recently, (as a quick and dirty reversal trade)
It reversed on the 9th dec (made a higher high too but couldn't hold on), had no follow thru on the 10th dec and made a lower low the next day.
Even on the 15th it ran to $1.40 but quickly reversed again.
IMO there was a hidden seller there dumping stock whenever it tried to rally.

Lots of other stocks have successfully reversed like BAU or FXL... MPO's weakness is when others were rallying was concerning.
Good luck.

 

[nomore4s]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Could this be some sort of deliberate hidden buying, to fool others into selling at lower prices? Because lets face it not everyone has access to tick data, so to 99% of people this is a short set-up?

this would enable the smart money to

(a) Supply themselves at lower prices
(b) remove excess supply to enable much higher prices.

I just doubled my position this morning, im so sure of this.

I'm not so sure about all that. It is at a support level so probably a buy zone for quite a few.

A break of $1.25 and it could fall pretty quick - might hit a few stops. A break of $1.40 could see it run.

We could also see a test of the $1.25 level by the "smart money" to pick up any stops that are triggered.
A million possibilities as to why all that matters is what actually happens.

 

[WiseMum]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Hi boys,
I've been watching you trade opinions for a while on MPO ... being far from expert, what exactly do you mean by 1.28 being key? Are you suggesting that if it hits 1.28 that is a danger point/trigger to get out or are you betting that it's a point from which it might bounce?
Sorry for the ignorance....

 

[WiseMum]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

... and in the time it took me to type that, 'nomore' has shed some light. thanks.

 

[lukeaye]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Hi luke, i was trading this on a much shorter timeframe and bailed out recently, (as a quick and dirty reversal trade)
It reversed on the 9th dec (made a higher high too but couldn't hold on), had no follow thru on the 10th dec and made a lower low the next day.
Even on the 15th it ran to $1.40 but quickly reversed again.
IMO there was a hidden seller there dumping stock whenever it tried to rally.

Lots of other stocks have successfully reversed like BAU or FXL... MPO's weakness is when others were rallying was concerning.
Good luck.

Hi skyquake,

In this context i cannot see how you would call it distributive or the stock being dumped.

If we look at this 30 min chart, you can see where the large volume comes through. The movements have a very small spread but the volume is huge. The next bar is the immportant bar, as it indicates whether it was supply supply or demand.

The next bar is a large spread bar, on much lighter volume, and it moves up. This to me indicates very clearly, that it was demand, as their is now very little supply at these prices and buyers are forced to buy at much much higher prices now.

Could you please tell me why you think it is distributive sky. Not having a go at you or anything just geneuinely interested on what your analysis and view is.

 

[lukeaye]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

I'm not so sure about all that. It is at a support level so probably a buy zone for quite a few.

A break of $1.25 and it could fall pretty quick - might hit a few stops. A break of $1.40 could see it run.

We could also see a test of the $1.25 level by the "smart money" to pick up any stops that are triggered.
A million possibilities as to why all that matters is what actually happens.

nomore4s,

What creates this support level?

My findings show that support, especially of this magnitude, ie volume, is due to much larger influencing parties. Simple private buyers do not have the capacity to influence the market in this way, in such large volumes.

So for such a large amount of volume to be traded at these levels i must conclude it is smart money positiong in a basing formation, rather then a poor momentum swing point.

Now a good basing pattern should occur over a longer timeframe, usually months. In this case it is days. So it could be there is a hurry to get into the stock as a move is imminent sooner rather then later.

This is obviously just my opinion. would like to hear yours

 

[brty]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

lukeaye,

I just doubled my position this morning, im so sure of this.

I'm never 'sure' about any position. I assume they are wrong until the market proves them correct. If I had to have a position in this, I would have purchased a couple of weeks ago and been out by now with a flat trade. My experience shows that the longer they go in this type of sideways/slightly higher meander after a biggish fall, then the less reliable it is to pick direction.

As this is the potential breakout thread, I see the only potential as a break DOWN, but it is in the middle of no-where-land for me. (read, need too wider stop for any position)

brty

 

[nomore4s]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

nomore4s,

What creates this support level?

My findings show that support, especially of this magnitude, ie volume, is due to much larger influencing parties. Simple private buyers do not have the capacity to influence the market in this way, in such large volumes.

So for such a large amount of volume to be traded at these levels i must conclude it is smart money positiong in a basing formation, rather then a poor momentum swing point.

Now a good basing pattern should occur over a longer timeframe, usually months. In this case it is days. So it could be there is a hurry to get into the stock as a move is imminent sooner rather then later.

This is obviously just my opinion. would like to hear yours

It depends on what timeframe you are looking at and the magnitude of the move you are trying to capture.

On the daily it looks like a logical place to buyas it is at both horizontal support and the bottom of a trend channel, but as sky quake said on the shorter timeframe there could be a hidden seller.

IMO the basing pattern has already occurred and we are retesting support but it could put in another basing pattern between $1.25 - $1.45 or even a larger one between $1.25 - $1.75 which would provide opps to trade between those zones.

Like I said I'm not really concerned with the why as it just does my head in, I'll just trade the chart and the signs I read off that chart whether I'm right or wrong about those signs is another matter.

 

[lukeaye]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

lukeaye,

I'm never 'sure' about any position. I assume they are wrong until the market proves them correct. If I had to have a position in this, I would have purchased a couple of weeks ago and been out by now with a flat trade. My experience shows that the longer they go in this type of sideways/slightly higher meander after a biggish fall, then the less reliable it is to pick direction.

As this is the potential breakout thread, I see the only potential as a break DOWN, but it is in the middle of no-where-land for me. (read, need too wider stop for any position)

brty

Yes however my criteria for entering the position was not triggered weeks ago, great to say that in hindsight. My entry is triggered now. And it has met with a lot of my criteria. therefore i give it more weighting and feel it has a greater oppurtunity for a return then normal.

Brty have you not seen a sideways basing pattern on a stock before? They are one of the most powerful patterns known, and can indicate a sustained higher run for many months to years to come, DEPENDING on the length of time basing. THE LONGER THE BETTER. So i would have to disagree with your view of not trading a sideways stock.

If you want to look at what im refering to, take a look at BHP when it was first listed, it has the same three thrust pattern. Newcrest mining has it, rio tinto has it. According to your logic its a breakdown? i dont think so, NCM went from around $2 to where it is now from that pattern.

Brty, whether it is a breakdown or a break up its still a potential breakout.

 

[brty]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

lukeaye,

take a look at BHP when it was first listed,

That is a fair bit of history you have!!!

I only started trading in 1981, so I'm relatively a beginner compared to some of the 'advice' I read about on this forum. A basing pattern will take time, a sideways correction in a downmove can be a continuation.

then the less reliable it is to pick direction.

This means it becomes a simple gamble at around now, could go up, down or sideways from here without doing anything out of the ordinary. Further sideways could indeed be a basing pattern, but it does not have to do that

brty