Potential Breakout Alerts!

[Sdajii]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

I am very new to everything, and have little idea about chart reading, but I was looking through this thread this morning (which has almost literally taught me everything I know about charting, which was effectively nothing when I woke up this morning), and just now was clicking through some companies.

I'm sorry I don't know how to put pictures up with the lines like you guys, but perhaps someone else can.

SRL looks like they have a 'wedge' (???) pattern going. If you look at the October data, it looks like right about now we are sitting whether the lines would cross.

I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing, but from looking at your diagrams, it looks significant. I almost understand half of the ascending triangle, but as for head and shoulders, flag mast, wedge, etc etc, I have no idea.

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

I am very new to everything, and have little idea about chart reading, but I was looking through this thread this morning (which has almost literally taught me everything I know about charting, which was effectively nothing when I woke up this morning), and just now was clicking through some companies.

I'm sorry I don't know how to put pictures up with the lines like you guys, but perhaps someone else can.

SRL looks like they have a 'wedge' (???) pattern going. If you look at the October data, it looks like right about now we are sitting whether the lines would cross.

I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing, but from looking at your diagrams, it looks significant. I almost understand half of the ascending triangle, but as for head and shoulders, flag mast, wedge, etc etc, I have no idea.

Sdajii,

Charts in this thread are mandatory, mainly due to those attempting to use it for ramping. If you believe that a stock is a candidate for a potential breakout you need to demonstrate why you believe this to be the case and a chart is an essential part of that.

Posting charts is a relatively simple process. The following two threads will help:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1401
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6530

 

[Sdajii]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Okay, I hope this is good enough.

As I said, I'm new, and I'm not even sure if what I am seeing is good news or bad news - I'm not even claiming I believe I'm looking at a high chance of a breakout, so I'm hardly ramping, more trying to learn. I would be interested to know what more experienced people think of what I'm seeing. I see you folks putting lines on the maximum and minimums in the 1-3ish month term when they are coming to a cross, and what I am seeing seems to fit what I have seen others saying. That's the only explanation I can give.

I have made a sort of a chart in paint, just from the current ASX site. I hope I'm not breaking any copyright rules, if so, please delete the chart and/or post.

***edit*** I can't add charts because my post count is too low. I'll post something else in the n00b area, hang on...

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

OK, well no-one seemed to pay any attention to the MHM thread so I'll put it here!


After the initial jump to an intra-day high of 40c this dropped back but has pushed up 20% todayand looks like closing around 34c at day (and all time)high.

There is no question that at current MC of around $10m and stated net profit potential of $14m pa starting THIS quarter, this one could run hard IMO

 

[Sdajii]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Okay... regarding the above three (!) posts.

SRL...

 

[Annwn]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Sdajii, a chart for SRL, - the line charts are a bit difficult to do analysis on

Forming a symmetrical triangle, these tend to be a continuation pattern,
trend rests for a while before continues on.
Break to the downside most likely with price action on the lower trend line.
Vol decreasing on formation.

Cheers

 

[conankun]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

It looks more like a a breakout to the upside. Well may be I'm more bullish atm. Looks similar to CDD from last week.

 

[Annwn]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

It looks more like a a breakout to the upside. Well may be I'm more bullish atm. Looks similar to CDD from last week.

Attachment 34070

Breakout direction unknown until it happens, I think CDD was different, trend was up, had formed a good size triangle,
looking at SRC would only qualify as a pennant, - has a higher failure rate.

 

[Sdajii]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Thank you for your analyses! So, it looks like something is about to happen, but you're not sure whether it will be positive or negative. Very interesting. The downwards trend was (I think) caused by a very large dividend payout recently (just before the price jumped down). A 30c dividend on a share with this price seems massive to me. That being the case, it doesn't seem like being on a downwards trend to me, just a one-off drop with a clear, on-off reason. A further drop was caused by a disaster at one of their mines, but I am not sure how to calculate how severe that is in the context of the whole company.

I might take a punt today and buy some. It looks to my untrained eye like it is unlikely to drop much further, and if a breakout is likely, I'm guessing it will be more likely to be positive. I'm far from sure, but hey, if I have a better than 50% chance I might as well jump in, right? Attitude of a newbie about to lose his money? Haha, maybe! Well, beginner's luck has been on my side so far, so I'll ride along with it until it dries up!

 

[lukeaye]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

I might take a punt today and buy some. It looks to my untrained eye like it is unlikely to drop much further, and if a breakout is likely, I'm guessing it will be more likely to be positive. I'm far from sure, but hey, if I have a better than 50% chance I might as well jump in, right? Attitude of a newbie about to lose his money? Haha, maybe! Well, beginner's luck has been on my side so far, so I'll ride along with it until it dries up!

How is CDD even close to the same pattern? It was an uptrending stock?

Now this may not be a MATURE downtrend, but it is pulling back. You would like to see a confirmation in volume and price before you would look to open a position.

You put your money in you have a 50/50 shot the way i see it. The likelyhood of it going up is just as great as it going down.

The funny thing about beginners luck is it usually runs out very quickly.

 

[MACCA350]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

SRL looking like it may have left the gate and started pushing in an upward trend. MACD and DMI also suggest swing to the upside.

6 Month chart

 

[conankun]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

How is CDD even close to the same pattern? It was an uptrending stock?

It's similar to some extent because it's trying to push through resistance from long time ago, which in this case from August/Sept 2008 as indicated in the chart I posted.

 

[Sdajii]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

You put your money in you have a 50/50 shot the way i see it. The likelyhood of it going up is just as great as it going down.

The funny thing about beginners luck is it usually runs out very quickly.

I bought at $1.66, currently the bid is $1.72 I'm holding out for it to go higher. Maybe it will, maybe it won't.

I agree, beginner's luck won't last forever, but I'm enjoying it while it lasts In time I'll either have to get some real ability, or start losing due to that luck drying up.

 

[lukeaye]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

I bought at $1.66, currently the bid is $1.72 I'm holding out for it to go higher. Maybe it will, maybe it won't.

I agree, beginner's luck won't last forever, but I'm enjoying it while it lasts In time I'll either have to get some real ability, or start losing due to that luck drying up.

Hey thats a great attitude, i reckon with that plan you will get real rich quick, why didn't i think of that!

Honestly, have a think about this, you have gotten "lucky" and made some money. Why wait until you lose it? You may as well go to the casino with that sort of attitude.

I didnt say it wont go up, it very likely could. But without a plan, plan to fail. Good luck though, your going to need it.

And im sorry, but that chart is not similar to CDD, its a completely different set-up. You can't look at a chart and say, o that kinda looks like this. Its either there or it isnt. Dont try and make things fit. It is nothing like CDD and trading in the same manour is just silly.

CDD had clear accumulation signs, ie volume and spread. SRL does not. SRL has pulled back 60% from its last drive up, CDD pulled back maybe 20%. How are these two closely alike?

I would not be suprised if SRL gets hammered tomorrow. There is clearly still supply there. But i could be wrong

 

[conankun]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

And im sorry, but that chart is not similar to CDD, its a completely different set-up. You can't look at a chart and say, o that kinda looks like this. Its either there or it isnt. Dont try and make things fit. It is nothing like CDD and trading in the same manour is just silly.

CDD had clear accumulation signs, ie volume and spread. SRL does not. SRL has pulled back 60% from its last drive up, CDD pulled back maybe 20%. How are these two closely alike?

I would not be suprised if SRL gets hammered tomorrow. There is clearly still supply there. But i could be wrong

Hey, chill down mate, people analysis can differ, I myself am still learning and do make mistake sometimes (esp. this past 2 weeks ), that's what makes this forum great, you can throw in a chart and opinion and someone else can combat it or support it, so that's all cool.

Yes it can fall out of bed anytime as well although MACD and DMI do point to the upside as mentioned. I'm not in it atm.

 

[Sdajii]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Hey thats a great attitude, i reckon with that plan you will get real rich quick, why didn't i think of that!

Honestly, have a think about this, you have gotten "lucky" and made some money. Why wait until you lose it? You may as well go to the casino with that sort of attitude.

I didnt say it wont go up, it very likely could. But without a plan, plan to fail. Good luck though, your going to need it.

And im sorry, but that chart is not similar to CDD, its a completely different set-up. You can't look at a chart and say, o that kinda looks like this. Its either there or it isnt. Dont try and make things fit. It is nothing like CDD and trading in the same manour is just silly.

CDD had clear accumulation signs, ie volume and spread. SRL does not. SRL has pulled back 60% from its last drive up, CDD pulled back maybe 20%. How are these two closely alike?

I would not be suprised if SRL gets hammered tomorrow. There is clearly still supply there. But i could be wrong

Hehe, chill out, no need to get narky, it's my money, not yours I have been very lucky, of my total of about 60 trades to date, only three have been losses, only one of those over $50 (about $500, and on the other two trades that day I made about $1,500 and about $600). Much of my profit so far has been luck, some skill, and hey, if I lose a few grand on a bad trade, I'll still be well up, and I'll still be smiling.

Anyway, I hope you're right about SRL getting hammered tomorrow, because I sold out today and would like to buy back in if they fall lower than they should

I will say though, I probably should pay more attention to skill than luck. I have been watching STI for months, and today I was sure they would go up, but didn't have the guts to buy. If I had I would have made about 50-60% on my money, rather than a bit over 5% on SRL. I knew I would kick myself in a few hours, and a few hours later I was kicking myself! Oh well, still smiling Good luck in your trading!

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Okay, now that you two (you know who you are) have gotten that out of your system can we please get back to potential breakouts?

A reminder: All posts that nominate a stock as a potential breakout candidate must contain a chart and an explanation that support your view.

Thank you. Please carry on.

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

Just a reminder that this is a TA only thread.

Posts that deal with fundamentals (such as the one on NBS that I just moved), will be moved to the appropriate stock thread.

 

[skc]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

There hasn't been a proper potential breakout chart posted for some time...here's one I hope no one would argue with.

ERA been hovering around $24 to $27 for 3 solid months. A strong break above will see it challenge all time high of $28.28.

 

[skc]

Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

MND. A nice ascending triangle butting up against $14.