Positions updates

[Sean K]

Since last report things have gone better than I could have expected. Just about everything has ran away to what I think are overbought levels and I should take more profits, but I'm gready.

Sold half SRL when it started unravelling as mentioned in the thread and am free carried with what I have left, so just going to see where they go from here and what they do with all that cash. Probably should have completely sold out to find the next undervalued thing.

Sold a third BRM at about a 160% gain but seriously thinking about dipping back in as it's just broken some significant resistance.

Probably should have doubled my GRY holdings which was part of the plan but it's never dropped back enough for me to invest with confidence, it's just trading well ahead of itself I think. But, once it does eventually pullback will be doubling.

I've only got half IPL that I want to balance my longer term big caps and waiting for an opportunity there.

Waiting for the mythical Wave 5 (LMAO) to pick up some longer term majors like WOW, CBA, and WPL.

Gotta be a decent correction soon!!!

 

[Gurgler]

Don't know about imminent corrections.

With the overly positive outlook as indicated by the DOW breaking through 10K, it may be a little way off. Kochie was getting very excited this morning. However indications are that there is a very positive outlook in Oz - but for how long???

I'm concerned also as bubbles have a tendency to burst!

 

[prawn_86]

F@*%$*g Giralia

 

[Sean K]

Cripes, Giralia is shaping up to be a significant iron player. Can't believe I took profits and didn't double up some time ago. Free carried on 30k will do me I suppose. Although, if McPhee Ck is looking like a 50-100Mt DSO deposit, their might be room to move.

 

[Sean K]

As I said a couple of weeks ago, I'm out!

The first time in a long time that I have no shares. Nada! It's a strange feeling.

I was only holding a few stocks; the ones I thought had very long term potential and those that I thought were extremely undervalued on a short term basis.

However, after assessing all the facts available, including my nomadic lifestyle, I have decided that in the short term it's best to be completely out of the market and to have a breather.

Worst case, in my view, is a total meltdown in the next 1-5 years which may destroy the capitalyst system.

I was more optomistic a couple of years ago thinking that the central governments would fix the bubbles by implimenting controls and mechanisms (after saving the crash) that would lead to a better future.

However, they have failed! They have not allowed those to fail that should fail and have provided cash to those that should not have cash!

What they have done is not just a bandaide solution, but a 'destroy capitalism' solution. I am in dismay. (or in dissaray)

The only out is if there is a dramatic turn around in policy, or if there is a REAL world war three and all debts are cancelled!!!

Time to take your money and run people!!

See you next time situations change.

Sean

 

[Miner]

Dear Sean
Saw your posting today so I am assuming you have returned to stock marketing again.

Welcome back to ASF after a short break.

I take the opportunity to wish you and your family an enjoyable Christmas and all the best for a Happier New Year.

Hope you are utilising your time to complete your book as well during the break.


Cheers

 

[Sean K]

Hi miner,
I'm watcing with interest still, but turn the machine on and off as I fell fit.
Waiting for a longer term opportunity to get back in, with confidence.
1 yr - 5yr?
My short term plans are a little complicated to allow me to be actively manageing short term positions, so best to stay out and relax.
In fact, I am bearish enough of the medium term financial markets that I have decided to return to the Army.
I start back in Sydney in March 2011, shuffling paper about.
I have a 3-5 year plan to get out of the market and re-eneter once the global system is sorted out. If it is sorted out.
Will be hanging about here, and make some small term trades if the opportunity exists, but my next major investment is a yacht on Sydney Harbour. Just a little cruiser, but something to be able to head up the coast in now and then.
Cheers,
Sean

 

[Miner]

Well laid plan.
Probably your entry to Sydney will coincide with an election with Tony Abott as PM (just kidding).

Your sign of bearish however largely differing from banking and other investment agencies forecast. But that is why Lehman and Northern Rock collapsed. Banks make mistakes.

Take care

 

[Sean K]

Hello blog readers, not too many out there, but I know you.

I wish you all the best for the Santa and New Year period, and hope you have a great time wth your family and friends.

For me, I fly to Guatemala tomorrow for a couple of weeks on a little adventure and hope to get back to Peru in early Jan safe and sound.

It was always great to get comments back from you over the year because this is not a 'regular' blog and not all of ASF know this section exists.

So,

Seasons greetings to Prawn, Miner, Gurgler, outback, MRC & Co, grace, nomore4s, swm79, and of course - shag!

Sorry if I have left anyone out! Please remind me that you have been watching!!

Catch you in the new year!!

 

[grace]

Hi Kennas, thanks for your Christmas wishes!

Interesting that you are out of the market. I'm thinking the temptation will be too much, and you will be again reminding us of all things good and bad in the market....well I hope so anyway. Even Marc Faber is of the opinion that you have to do something with your money while you wait for the blow up to happen. It may take some time after all to sort the weaklings out.

Happy investing to all in 2010. Hope we can all pick a winner!

cheers grace

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

How does an ex choco CSSB Maj get to swan around south America and the Caribbean?

Also did I spell Caribbean proper?

Also

¿Ha agarrado usted alguna enfermedad v***rea mas o está su mujer con usted?

gg

 

[Sean K]

GG, Heading back to the Green Machine next year. Driving a desk at the old Land Command now called Forces Command. OMFG!!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It will be the same old same old. Different name same tricks. Enjoy the time away mate and all the best for 2010. gg

 

[Sean K]

The blogs have been few and far beween recently.

I sold up a while ago and have been on complete holidays for the past 6 months or so. Sun, gym, walks, books, rest.

And popping in to ASF.

I'm now back in the Army and have spent my first 2 days at work in Sydney getting used to all the new acronyms and changes in business. There are some.

Great news for me is that after being out of the ARA for 5 years, I know almost everyone still!! Been catching up with old friends for the past 2 days and it's been fantastic.

Currently living in the Officers Mess in Vic Barracks, Paddington. Can think of worse places to be!! Really nice base.

Unfortunately, I can not access ASF during the day due to the firewall/security stuff, but early mornings and nights will be my time to keep in touch.

Chau!

kennas

 

[Miner]

Hi Sean

All the best in your return to army.
It was so nice to learn that even after 5 years you could see old mates. In last 5 years world environment and miltary has seen a lot of changes.
So please take care and all best
I am happy to learn that you would still a peeping Tom in ASF.

PS : None of my business but your latest avtar is not so vociferous compared to previous one. It is more greeney than jungle tiger. Any way I am keeping my shut

Regards

 

[Sean K]

Thanks Miner!

Yes, good to be back with friends. They are just a rank higher now.

The avatar is a Land Iguana from the Galapagos. A pic I took a couple of years ago. Maybe I'll revert back to the feline soon..

 

[shag]

hi mate
grt to see u back on the CONTINENT
i bet u miss the clear warm seas tho, diving, like surfing is like a drug imo, a fix u have to have
and dont spear anything that looks bigger than a couple of foot max, it could b a shark in murkier waters.....
guess u miss the food too.
must b grt to get some lead in the air tho and see all the new toys the army has.
yr advice on pru etc made me sell down my dog, bmn, thus saving me from a large drop thanks.
u need an avatar of one of those real mean, eat anything that moves, land dragons over indonesia way.
cheers

 

[Sean K]

Hi shag, you've been away for a while?
God knows where BMN will go. Once EXT started building their deposit it made them look like turkeys really.
PRU still looks very good. Just check the political situation in Ivory Coast. Not sure what effect it will have.
Had a nice day in Sydney today. Walked around Centenial Park, gone to thegym, sat on the beach at Bondi and now drinking vinos in Paddington. Life's not bad.
Except my wife is in Salvador Brazil for Easter ....

 

[Miner]

Kennas

Read your posting on AZM
I know you have been a great believer on AZM but the stock moved very slow.

Hope army is treating you well

Any comments on HEG or/ and DOM ?

They appear to be good stocks (I hold) but price is only going south.

Regards

 

[Sean K]

Hi miner, will have a look at them.

I think I did look closely at HEG at one point, but for some reason didn't put it on my 'close watch' list. Something was amiss.

Yes, I was a big fan of AZM and it's undervalued position and potential for some time, but it looks expensive now imo. I ended up doing very well out of them, and am happy to have banked the money, but I'd be looking for the next thing now if I was actively investing.

Will comment on HEG/DOM soon.

Cheers,
SK