Positions updates

[MRC & Co]

GL Kennas, you live a truly lucky life! Enjoy it. You still have a while yet on ASF before you have to do something as terrible as travel through Central America for months!

 

[Sean K]

AMP
AZM
BHP
BRM
GIR
GRY
ICN
IPL
LGL
MEL
PDN
PRU
SRL
SUN
TOL
WBC
WCL

Sold a third of SRL last week at about $2.30 and am almost free carried there on a great profit. Looks like it's about to fall over to me, but with market strength oversees maybe not Monday. As described in the thread, I'm a bit over them now. Making some stupid strategic decisions imo.

Sold half BHP at about $38 as I was way overweight in it.

Added AMP, TOL, GRY and IPL since last update I think.

MEL and WCL both down about 20% and I'm thinking about throwing in the towel there. ICN is making up for both of them however.

LGL also performing very poorly, even as the market runs and POG stays well supported. Rightfully smashed for the Ballarat debarcle, and heads should roll.

Disappointed I missed the CDU recovery after spending quite a bit of time researching it. Watching too many things I think, and also waiting for the market correction which has clouded judgement.

Also missed the RXM run which I am extremely disappointed in. Was watching it really closely for some time, and took my eye off the ball.

GRY looks like it's shaping up as long term prospective gold miner. Their drilling success could send their end of year JORC to well over 1m oz au, and the exploration success is outstanding. They could be sitting on a 3-5m oz au deposit.

Hm, that's enough...

At the end of next week I'm heading to Cuzco for a week and then mid Sep going to Chile for 2 weeks on a bit of a holiday. Will be nice to get out of dreary winter Lima for a while.

 

[Sean K]

If we have seen an absolute bottom, what a fvckin AMAZING opportunity to buy in. We might look back at this period of time and see it as the best investment opportunity in our lifetimes.

Chindia is going to take over from the US as the worlds biggest economy in the next 10-15 years, and our mining, energy, materials and infrastructure companies will be earning gazilions!

If you can make it through the GFC, and the probably next major correction, you will end up a very very rich person by investing in the above industries in the coming years.

You just need a longer term outlook.

 

[Sean K]

It's time like these when I question why I didn't buy more of a BRM on the way up when I knew the funnymentals so well. ********.

 

[haunting]

what's wrong with buying today?

... if you are going for the long term

 

[Sean K]

Technically and fundamentally - yes.

It's cheap, and breaking out.

Just disappointed that I didn't buy more when it was trading below cash backing.

Unbelieveabvle opportunity.

Didn't trust my judgement after making some bad decisions last year.

Have done OK out of it anyway. A very fast car worth at least.

Just wish it was DB9ish instead of Boxterlikeish.

 

[shag]

thanks for yr posts mate, really appreciate yr graphs esp.
i have only mel as my csm/g punt. seems a real dog-location being nsw bad...?
trying to up gry for month/s but no good pullbacks as well as cu stocks.
got some cgg, just dont have the decent wads of dosh presently to make good dosh.
need more oil too.
the rail acess is a real can of worms, bugger forest too.
cheers
ps have another good holiday....u may risk the rally in aus....

 

[Sean K]

Hey shag,

Yes, MEL has WAY underperformed.

I am in 2 minds.

As a trader, cut and run and put the money to better use.

Or, as a longer term investor, trust the funnymentals and take advantage of the depressed price.

I'm thinking the later at the moment. I am waiting for a potential bottom and then going to add to the position. I can only really comfortably do this because I've had such success since the 'bottom'. I'm willing to risk total failure in this company since overall, I've made much more.

This may be an example of a company that goes belly up, but the odds aren't skewed that way at the moment are they?

So, I am torn.

The fundamental investor is persuading me to hold and wait for another opportunity to buy.

 

[haunting]

Kennas,

I have this simplistic approach - at a market top you use TA, at a market bottom, you use FA.

The time to use FA was back in Nov'08-March'09. At the moment I see the market has a potential to develop into an intermediate top and am expecting a correction based on macro observations, market valuation and TA. My timing is out but I still believe the outcome will eventuate. Today's strong market movement is lacking in terms of fundamentals and has more to do with US market/economic influence and divy play, both drivers may not exist in September.

Stick to your plan.

Cheers.

 

[swm79]

couldnt agree more with you on that last post kennas.

long term outlook is amazingly good. just as long as china can keep it together.

looking at all the info at the moment though - baltic dry, chinese domestic hot rolled coil prices, world HRC prices peaking, china's spot iron ore price... the fact that US commentators were saying the market going up last nigth was a result of Bernake being reappointed again (an absolute certainty anyway)... the markets are just hanging for ANY positive news... which indicates to me we may see another slide.... with that said we'll probably look back at these prices and say "why didnt i go in harder?! take out a loan etc etc"

 

[Sean K]

AQA been a tragic miss. Called a bottom at $2.00. lol

Bought a few more GRY on break through 35c. Expecting more drilling results soon, and would expect them to be good. Stock moving in anticipation of a decent JORC upgrade by end of year.

 

[Sean K]

Added some more GRY last week.
SRL took a dip related to dividend 30c a share. Thank you very much!
There were some other ex dividend too, like TOL I think.
Overall things are up since the last update.
ICN has been a champ.
Thinking about adding some more PRU, but I'm a bit overweight in it now. But, for a reason I suppose. Still very undervalued and plenty of news coming up. Plus gold running.
Might add another gold stock, perhaps NCM, or just add to LGL.
Considering adding to WCL. Some good news on some acerage last week and I am underweight in it compared to ICN and MEL.
Thinking about ditching some AZM. Not as confident as I have been with their prospects.

This market has been very resiliant....

Current positions compared to last one on 7 Aug.

 

[Sean K]

I think out of the stocks I hold now, PRU has the most potential upside in the comming months. Highly dependent on POG of course. But, even if it stays steady, they have some big news coming out in this quarter which looks certain to be good. Lots of drilling results in areas where gold is being picked up off the turf! Or, I'm wrong... he he

 

[Sean K]

A couple of things breaking out which is lovely to watch.

BRM, ICN, GRY, PRU (whoohoo!!! )

 

[Sean K]

Sold a third AZM. Will wait and see how the sp goes and what their next results are before moving again.

 

[Sean K]

Bought just a few more PDN @ $4.69 as a long term play after the capital raising. I think they are set to be a very long term monster uranium company.

Unless there's a major nuclear disaster coming up... eeek

 

[Sean K]

Some really unusual action on AZM volume wise. Very suspiscious. Thinking of buying back in with even more. lol

 

[Sean K]

AZM up to 16c on volume, gotta be something up, they don't start a new drilling campaign till the end of the month.

PRU outsanding intersections out yesterday, the new resource estimate for Trengala could be a significant boost. Could be anything. Have to add some more tomorrow. Way overweight in it now, but it's just a great looking stock with plenty of exploration potential yet and LGL knocking on the door I reckon.

Another resource building for GIR, hit $1.00 yesterday on the ann, what a run from the bottom. Whoohoo!

MEL, WCL, woof woof

 

[Sean K]

Update.

MEL and WCL; grrrrrrrroooofff!!

I said I wasn't going to post too many more updates prviously, but I've found some time on my hands.

Won't be the case from Thursday however, as I'm going on a 2 week holiday in Chile. Will have some time from 25 Sep to be on line, but otherwise, zzzzzzz.

 

[Sean K]

I did well taking some profits on AZM at 13c or whatever.

Now up to 17, on more volume.

lolol