Positions updates

[shag]

i dont see economy being stuffed in aus or asia myself.
ive been trying to gain another decent grouping since house purchase and agree.
i see a dramtic run myself, fat profits were calling it last yr the idiots-a 70's style near verticle run but i suspect this time its all go. but then thats me.
my bro is cashed up for another pad, so it could b a chance for him to dump it in for a 6 month run on house dosh. i would anyway. need a lot for an ok place east sydney.
buy massive good dairy farms in nz for the same amount. and they r the only land going up in nz presently or was.
maybe not going up now....

 

[Sean K]

shag, market breaking down from support will destroy everything. Not much will be saved as we have seen.

I'm waiting to see how the market reacts to 3700. If it bounces strongly, then we're ok in the short term. I reckon there's more liklihood of going straight through and testing lows, at which time will be a good buying opportunity.

I'm much happier to be half invested right now, ready to take advantage of the next capitulation.

 

[shag]

yes im watching 3700 myself and wondered the same. its not a big order anyway, but there r fortunes to be had by buying lower too.
jeez azm has some good grades readimg yr post. 40grms must be yellow vein material.
i might try to go down a mine one day, one mate worked the waihi mine, newmont? owned now. small but good grades. hes in bloody greenland presently on that lead and zinc? project. his wife does europe while hes stuck there. big cold war airstrip close to mine.
thinking of greenland, winters nearly over sydneyway. aus is an awesome plot. a taxi driver recently said why go elsewhere when u're in the best country in the world. hes probably too bright to do driving too long.

 

[shag]

so the market has had a week of trying to go down but didnt. maybe the world bank or was it the imf report killed or delayed it.
earnings season stateside isnt it, hu in the slammer(no talk on asf re this from what i can see), whatever, needs a decent impetus to drive it lower from where im sitting.
ideas, and it seems i need grammer lessons, which i probably deserved.
hu getting copped reminds me of fonterra/san lu last yr. the exec's in china were sh-t scared and ran for cover quick despite being clean. it was a bit touch and go for them from my memory, but china got all the technolgy for free, and fonterra out for zilch bar a few deaths.
heres a mates trout site if u get bored and want to see good fish and scenery.
http://www.strikeadventure.com/

 

[Sean K]

Thanks shag, love a good trout fish. Lot's of trout in the Andes surprisingly, but not very big.

I'm feeling cautiously bullish about this slide down. I was worried about a very rapid descent past old lows but this looks organised. Not too much panic yet. If we retrace 50% or so from the last push up (which is also around support) and hold to find a base, then could be a very good sign and a good entr point. LONG term I think any opportunity around3500 now could be good.

Just not sure how all this debt is going to be covered.

War probably.

 

[shag]

zane used to rave about all the small fish they caught in north american streams. the massive ones often just sit around under banks anyway, they have caught 20 or 30 pounders in the dim ages in nz. the sea run ones get very large along with a few lake ones.
northwest nelson is so full of fish u really dont need a guide, esp if u are fit and its very scenic. taupo is ok, but over rated and way over fished.

i see the debt/currency debate has started to get some traction. i'm no fiscal genious but i suspect some creative bean counter will come up with a solution and ultimately an aisan and american currency equivalent to the europeans.

its the same in nz, with the massive dept due to the housing boom etc, they r having trouble rolling over the uridashi bonds. it will make visiting nz even cheaper tho from australia.

 

[shag]

bought a few gry to round off things.
did u see the bnz in nz lost a large tax case re tax minimisation/avoidance. all the nz aus owned banks are the same. according to my nz lawyer, in climates like this one, even the courts do not remain impartial so i'm suspecting when this is taken up thru the courts, they will still lose. around half a bill nz for bnz alone.
hows your tourism venture looking, i'd like to do a small accomodation development in a prime coastal region in nz. its in the too hardbasket presently. nice land, restrictive council and cap costs etc. not a big earner potentially but its using the property and putting more of a footprint on it.
the swine flu taking grip in australasia, the bro said clinics inundated(sydney), icu's in nz overflowing.

 

[Sean K]

Tempted by GRY. Can't believe I missed these quality explorers at the bottom. AZM at 4c, GRY at 6c, PRU 20c. In retrospect, could have been a once in a lifetime opportunity. Grrrrrr.

Tax, eeek.

Not sure what's happening with the travel company. Have the chance to do it if we want, but big committment a long way from home. Missing Australia quite a bit.

Your little development sounds interesting. Real estate is an enigma. It was supposed to fall over but has been pretty resiliant. That's the next opportunity in his recession perhaps.

 

[shag]

i had a quick look at why your srl was such a winner. the cash backing seemed rediculously good from the thread.

we are stuck with the property, been in family for generations. a lovely spot, just large council rates, for little return and service. it would be nice to make it pay, plus use it a bit more. golden bay is a funny place, so isolated, but with large landprices. a summer holiday destination for the south island. lots of well connected people hidden away too.
very restrictive re coastal development, and likely to get worse, thats the problem.

 

[Sean K]

I have rarely seen this event, and even now I am wondering whether I am too emotionally attached to a stock or not.

But, over the past few days I have seen larger than normal orders for a minnor stock on the Ask side which seem unusual.

Unusual in the sense that if I wanted to sell $20k of an illiquid stock I would not put the order on market like these guys have been doing. I would just be picking off the Bids here and there to keep the price bouyant.

This is for very junior minows remember, not relevant for a BHP.

Anyway, does 'capping' exist?

 

[prawn_86]

I think it does, but not nearly as prevalent as some people make out. That seems to be a rampers excuse when i stock does not move up "oh its been capped" however i think it is fairly rare

 

[Sean K]

Yeah, that's what I've thought. Amazing how many cappers there are on stocks discussed at Hot Cocker.

I'm still seeing it on one of my stocks at the moment. I think I'm objective, but......

 

[Sean K]

AZM rarely has anyone buy over 50K shares at a time, except me I think.

But the past few days they've had quite a few and the usual person splashing up a sell of 200K plus. For someone who watches the stock all days, it's just really weird.

And, WTF now with the 150 share orders at a few cents.

Maybe it's just a bot at work.

But, I can't work out if it's a good or bad thing.

Is it good that a broker has bots at work on this stock?

eeeeek

 

[shag]

i have been wondering too why it hasnt got some fire behind it from the recent rise in the pog in the last few days. oh add the positive market sentiment also, as its just a junior explorer.
kondys crystals, forgot about that since school.

 

[shag]

trying to work out what i may do with my dogs in future. trying to find paladins and rio's grades in africa. rio appears to be 350ppm(.0035pc), and going down as yrs progress.
like ext, but its all inferred(read guessed), whereas bmn is all indicated virtually. ext may upgrade the total resorce from these drilled areas alone as its converted like bmn, but who knows. 1.4 bill ish, when rio is only 40bill? market cap...
i like pdn, its got 6 all over it but is stuggling at 5..
maybe time for cu and ni. iron ore? but logistics, fmg got half a mine just for rail acess.
csm, but i'm guessing too much leaked info and insider knowledge.
maybe just hit the bhp or rio options key. at 33pc and less(declining ore cuts, and growing production) for iron ore contract reductions, bhp must try for 42 again sometime(i personally only like rio as a bhp takeover target again-look at its iron ore deal with bhp, all one way traffic).
give us a blog sometime on yr crystal ball's visions.
cash on the sidelines and greed returning to aus.....

oh while i'm on it, i missed aus when i went back to nz both times this yr(once for 24hrs, another for five or so days). some parts of trip were good, mate/s, the canterbury plains, the farm etc, but as soon as u exit the airport upon return, the heat hits u...
peru, the galapagos islands etc is a whole different story to the shakey isles esp in its present state.

 

[Sean K]

Been a while since last posting.

Have bought and sold a couple of things and been doing some very short term CFD trading which has been going average.

I'm finding that in my current situation just 'investing' is the only way to enjoy the lifestyle in Peru.

I think I will stop putting these up from now, and start concentrating on some longer term buy and hope positions, and start relaxing at night....

 

[Gurgler]

HI Sean

Is this a serious change in your approach?
I'll miss your 'disclosures' - irregular though they are!

Greg

 

[Sean K]

I think it might be.

Far less buying and selling for a while I think.

Maybe I'm just going through a zone.

I've been going to Spanish school, to the gym, learning guitar, doing salsa lessons, working on my book, and helping my wife at her work with special projects during the day. Then, slap the market on top at night and I'm just 'working' 18 hours a day, lol.

The recent irregular updates is pretty much because I haven't been doing much buying or selling of medium/longer term position stocks. Just bought some AMP, TOL, SUN, WBC. Took 1/3 of my SRL position off the table today, so makes it free carried.

Very disappointed in some of my decisions a while ago in regard to CBA and WBC. Bought them at the ABSOLUTE bottom as short term trades and then let them go. Not sure what was going through my mind to have not managed that better. Also had LEI and WOR in my sights as well, and let them slip. I'm more disappointed in missing those than not selling MAK, DMM, BMN, NCM, LGL at their breakdowns. Harry Hindsight is bashing me over the head with a cricket bat.

In the very long run, probably won't matter. Add this to experience database for later on.

 

[Sean K]

Maybe this is the last update.

Made an error with the average formula on the last graph, so updated here, also with prices on Friday.

Would like to put up the true % gain according to $$ but I don't want to say how much I have invested. The actual % gain to account for differences in asset allocation isn't that much. 5% less.

Some time ago I mentioned a Model Portfolio, which I wanted to have set at the 'bottom' of this recession/depression. I started to build that, but have been a bit slow. I bought CBA and IPL which were in the portfolio, but sold to remain safe. Both poor decisions.

I also had LEI on the list, and what a mistake that has been, so far.

Still, 'investing' is a long term proposition and I look forward to being able to grab them at some point soon.

Looks like March is the near term bottom, but mid-long term I think the measures taken by governments to get us out of this will come back to bight us harder. How long will that take? One year? Five Years? Whatever the case, that much debt has to hurt later unless we all find some cunning way to get out of it.

Longer term, I am questioning the total consumer driven philosophy of sustainable economic growth with Government intervention. Booms and busts are essential, we can not just boom. Governments intervening in this to catch votes totally fvcks it up.

Let's let the system work!!

So, my future plans with investing is to get myself away from the computer as much s possible during the evening to be able to have a normal life over here. That means longer term investments, and less specs that need monitoring, and certainly no CFD short term trading. That is, until circumstances change.

Right now, looks like I will be leaving Peru in May 2010 to travel up through Central America to do some research and contracting for a new travel company I am going to set up with my wife based in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, with the aim of starting tours in Jan 2011. So, during that period, (a few months maybe) I'll be on the road. Far less ASF time! lol

 

[shag]

jeeze mate, dont desert us. hell there wont be much left worth reading here if u stop making comments. i really enjoyed yr blogs as infrequent as they may have been.
id say more but comuter buggered still-i dropped it-twice.
i must say ive learnt and prospered well from yr comments-learnt of lots of good miners that i never knew of.
as julie lee? said/noted recently, i am picking another 7 odd yrs of aus bull materal or do u just say the risk is to the upside.
i picked up a handful of cu and fe on friday-couldnt help myself.
cheers shag.
ps a good article on 'peak' coal this week too-notably aus is the only big net exporter left.