tinhat
Pocket Calculator Operator
- Joined
- 1 May 2009
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Correct, I have found that the other prices do not offer up as clear patterns as the close.
Post #10 here.
Both, for example see posts 76, 83, 86 and 88.
There are various other posts with my P&F charts.
Cheers
Country Lad
………… I am not sure where OBV and "Siroc" (never heard of it before, guess it's some kind of Rate of Change indicator) fit in? Are you applying those to timeseries or P&F charts?
What I am seeing is breakout trading, I guess after you see indicator action determining a bottom or top you're looking for upside or downside P&F breakouts as appropriate, traded on the close/next days open?
To summarise you use:
3 box reversal on the closing price.
Correct
………..along with SIRC and OBV on a daily chart for confirmation of trend/turning-point.
Correct. I also need a breakout and/or positive market sentiment.
A couple of questions:
1. What software do you use to construct your P&F charts?
2. What settings do you use for your SIRC indicator?
My problem was determining reversal/box sizes etc. which is where people probably get stuck, and then its all too hard?
S
tinhat - not sure about the charting package you mention, but also
https://www.prorealtime.com/
can draw P&F charts. Free also - I am in no way affiliated with them, but it is the program that I use to monitor stock EOD.
S
As S has explained SIROC is Smoothed Index Rate of Change.
S, which box size to use is the main issue with people starting off with P&F. Too many change the box size to an extreme trying to force a pattern which defeats the purpose. A pattern is there or it isn't. Adjust the box size within reason but don’t spend time fiddling around with it, the pattern is there or it isn’t.
Generally, I now use 0.5 cent for share price 10 to about 50 cents
1 cent for share price 50 to 100 cents
2 cents for share price 100 to 200 cents
3 cents for share price 200 to 300 cents
4 cents for share price 300 to 400 cents
..and so on. I don't look at shares less that 10 cents.
What I find interesting from your discussion about your exit from WTF in the WTF thread (which you link to above) is that you used the price chart with SIROC and OBV to determine your exit which by my analysis got you out of the stock a bit closer to the top than from using a bearish reversal stop loss in the P&F which didn't show up until the price had got to 5.55 (the filled in circle in the image below). Whereas you got out on the 31 Jan a few percentage points higher somewhere between 5.83 and 5.74
Do you commonly find that your other technical analysis gets you out a bit higher to the top than using a bearish break signal on the P&F?
I will probably be out shortly, it has lost momentum and there could be resistance at this level. Plenty of others breaking out at the moment.
By the way, you can right click on the post number in a thread to copy the url which will take you directly to that post.
Thanks - it draws a nice P&F using EOD data.
Thanks for your reply.
By scaling up the box size in relation to the price (as is the traditional method) you are essentially crudely approximating a logarithmic scale. The advantage of using software to draw charts is that it will implement true logarithmic scaling of the box size for you (for example, box size scaled to 1% of share price).
What I find interesting from your discussion about your exit from WTF in the WTF thread (which you link to above) is that you used the price chart with SIROC and OBV to determine your exit which by my analysis got you out of the stock a bit closer to the top than from using a bearish reversal stop loss in the P&F which didn't show up until the price had got to 5.55 (the filled in circle in the image below). Whereas you got out on the 31 Jan a few percentage points higher somewhere between 5.83 and 5.74
View attachment 51990
Do you commonly find that your other technical analysis gets you out a bit higher to the top than using a bearish break signal on the P&F?
By the way, you can right click on the post number in a thread to copy the url which will take you directly to that post.
also read Wyckoff's Active Tape reading course ( not the one most people have , the other one ( , which is all about P&F and reading the buying and selling pressure . )
Motorway
Thanks for your detailed reply. Are referring to:
"Studies in Tape Reading (By Rollo Tape)". The Ticker Publishing Company, New York. 1910.
available here:
http://archive.org/details/studiesintaperea00wyckrich
Thanks
See if this works
About the fourth link down
The PDF
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=....57j0l3j62l2.10609j0&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
let me know if it works
motorway
I have read Wyckoff and some of the others on P&F charting years ago and have found those theories now unnecessarily too technical, too involved and too time consuming. Times have changed since those early days when it was all done with pencil and paper. Now we can instantly see the market sentiment, measure various other indicators which make the use of P&F far more simple when combined with these other tools which were not available at the time. I should note that I look for trades which suit my methods based on patterns resulting in fewer trades than if using Wyckoff.
Yeah I really agree with this. You see lots of dudes talking about traditional T/A setups like they have some sort of predictive properties. H & S, Cup and handles, Straight lines like they are brick walls etc etc. I think the markets are far more chaotic and dynamic that you cannot shoehorn into basic concepts from many many moons ago.
Still there are patterns out there to be found. Just not the same from 50-100 years ago. if they ever were of use.
Thanks Country Lad. I for one read every post made to this thread. In your first chart you identified a "bullish falling wedge". What about this pattern made you identify it as bullish?tech/a has started the Technical Training Exercise thread which gives MTU as an example. I thought it may be worthwhile showing my P&F trade as another one of no doubt numerous methods where people have traded this one and it can be seen alongside tech's method. I didn't want to post this in his thread and take it off topic.
View attachment 52323
What about this pattern made you identify it as bullish?
Below are a few of the basic patterns I put together for a post on the old Stock Central nearly 2 decades ago if I remember correctly.
Hope that helps
Cheers
Country Lad
View attachment 51985
Gee those were the days, good old stock central. Country Lad is Fastoy still with us do you know?
He posts on HC now & then under another nick to stir up some people.
Is Austin Hui's follow up site "Traders Network" still going?
No, he ended up working full time and didn't have the time or inclination to keep it going. A few of us wanted to take it over but no joy.
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