PNV - Polynovo Limited

[qldfrog]

Well i got 2 packets of pnv via the systems, the first one made a decent profit and was sold on Monday, the second one lost 18% nearly $1k today wiping all gains and bring losses to the system.. dammed

 

[UMike]

Not quiet brave enough to buy more of these but picked it in the Monthly comp.
Results are out and sales are up and they nearly made a profit.

Lets see.

 

[frugal.rock]

A little interesting again.

 

[qldfrog]

A little interesting again.

View attachment 147010

Képs popping in and out of my systems.a good trading opportunity,but not sure as investor

 

[UMike]

Held up really well last month considering the Dow had it's worst month since 2002.
Not looking to get any more but hoping it will consolidate with the rest of the market.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Market liked the news: PNV booked a record $5.4 million in sales in September to take September quarter sales to $12.5 million.

 

[galumay]

The question remains, can they make any profit?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

In trading halt:

Polynovo is looking to raise $30 million via a placement of new shares, another $3 million in shares sold to directors and a share purchase plan to take it to $47 million.

Brokers Bell Potter and Macquarie are on the deal, which is expected to price at $1.90 a share.

 

[UMike]

PolyNovo successfully completes Share Purchase Plan PolyNovo Limited (ASX: PNV) (PolyNovo) is pleased to announce the successful completion of its Share Purchase Plan (SPP).
In accordance with the SPP terms, the issue price of new fully paid ordinary shares (New Shares) under the SPP is $1.90 per New Share, being the issue price paid by investors under the recently completed institutional placement.
Strong support was received from 2,725 Eligible Shareholders (beneficial holders) with applications totalling A$35.27m with an average application amount of approximately A$12,941. The Board has decided to accept oversubscriptions under the Plan totalling $A3 million to ensure all Eligible Shareholders are given a reasonable opportunity to participate. This increases the maximum total amount to be raised under the SPP to $A20 million.
.....
The total funds raised comprising of the Institutional Placement (A$30m), Director Placement (A$3m) (subject to shareholder approval) and SPP (A$20m) amounts to $A53m

 

[galumay]

The question remains, can they make any profit?

Seemingly not, another CR. A pile of SH's cash been set on fire by this one. I should really collect on my bet on this one, even allowing for the excuses of Covid etc this has proven not to be an investible business as predicted.

 

[UMike]

Actually got scaled back in a weird arse way. Probably based on the amount of the existing holding amount.

Just over a third.

 

[systematic]

Have picked for the 2023 yearly comp. Consensus is a Buy. It's in a field that can see big moves either way, and the stock price is volatile enough. Seems to be consolidating recently, so I'm just hoping the break is to the upside.

 

[UMike]

Seemingly not, another CR. A pile of SH's cash been set on fire by this one. I should really collect on my bet on this one, even allowing for the excuses of Covid etc this has proven not to be an investible business as predicted.

Hope you were allowed to cash out on it as ultimately the bets seems a losing one.
As an investible business it has been a bonza for me. Just sold the initial 1/5 @ $2.48 with a small gain leaving the top-ups remaining at little over $1 and the SPP @ $1.9. Dunno when I'll offload the tops-ups as it'll probably go in stages.
I agree it is not a buy and hold forever stock. Now I just need CSL to stop killing me.

@systematic Good pick. Was close to picking it as well.

 

[galumay]

Hope you were allowed to cash out on it as ultimately the bets seems a losing one.

I haven't collected the bet, I was right then and I see no signs of being wrong about this business anytime soon. Its not investible by my definition and there is no sign of profitability or the extraordinary growth required to justify the price.
May well be a good trade for speculators, and good luck to the gamblers who play that game.

 

[Knobby22]

Hope you were allowed to cash out on it as ultimately the bets seems a losing one.
As an investible business it has been a bonza for me. Just sold the initial 1/5 @ $2.48 with a small gain leaving the top-ups remaining at little over $1 and the SPP @ $1.9. Dunno when I'll offload the tops-ups as it'll probably go in stages.
I agree it is not a buy and hold forever stock. Now I just need CSL to stop killing me.

@systematic Good pick. Was close to picking it as well.

If projections are correct should be highly profitable in 2025 fy. About 24c per share.

 

[UMike]

Got rid of 1/3 my Super holdings on Open.

First Half Financial Highlights
• Record 1H23 sales of A$27.3m up 67.5% on STLY of A$16.3m.
• Total revenue including BARDA was A$29.5m up 62.2% on STLY of A$18.2m
• Strong growth in U.S. achieving 1H23 record sales of A$22.8m up 61.0% vs. STLY of A$14.1m
• ROW sales of A$4.5m up by 110.1% vs. STLY A$2.1m including sales in the new markets of Hong Kong and Canada

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02621262-722AEKR2DGDKP6KR83DJ1B5V08/pdf?access_token=0007Sk71LcXkVbwfaXKvE5Q5Vyh3

 

[galumay]

Another one with a trading update that completely avoids mentioning earnings! I wonder why?!

 

[The Triangle]

Another one with a trading update that completely avoids mentioning earnings! I wonder why?!

Is $27 million sales actually any good? That may be growth on H1 last year, but I don't think it's much growth from H2??? I hadn't looked at polynovo in a long time, but is this correctly sitting at around ~ 35x revenue?

These kind of premature cheerleading updates should be banned by the ASX/Regulators. Frustrating when miners do this, then you discover when the quarterly/half yearly come out that they've incinerated a lot more cash than originally planned. Maybe if you're going to give any update you should have to stipulate the cash balance of the company on the date of the announcement.

Putting out an announcement of the unaudited sales and revenue is useless without knowing the costs associated to go get them/grow the earnings. I don't think we would have seen this announcement if it weren't for the capital raising a month ago? Someone(institution?) surely selling for a nice short-term profit.

 

[galumay]

Great post, Triangle. Its one of my pet hates. I agree announcements about trading conditions without reference to either true FCF or real earnings, should not be allowed.

Mind you, speculators and even so called analysts encourage this with nonsense like 'valuing' companies on revenue multiples!

 

[UMike]

While this stock has it's detractors....

It has recently been added to the ASX 200 S&P DJI Announces March 2023 Quarterly Rebalance
Although been hit by the sale of 4.75 mil shares by one of its directors I still see that it has potential for the long term.
the $1.9 floor has been broken but that does not necessarily indicate a downturn.