PNV - Polynovo Limited

[UMike]

In Tassie. Dunno the wife's NAB trading account numbers. Not looking into it too much but this'll be a 14 month high. Chart says momentum is still there?

 

[UMike]

Took some profit.
Sold the wifes shares.

Not negative on the stock just as what happened last year....... FOHOTL (fear of holding on too long)
Still got plenty in the super and personal.

 

[UMike]

AS I type... David Williams is on Business Now explaining Novo Sorb.

 

[UMike]

Ultimately a Positive trendline but I am prepared for a break in this trend.
Although very positive about the future of the company and stock.
Been looking at picking back up the portion sold. UNDER $2.
We'll see how it pans out going forward.

 

[Knobby22]

View attachment 174224

Ultimately a Positive trendline but I am prepared for a break in this trend.
Although very positive about the future of the company and stock.
Been looking at picking back up the portion sold. UNDER $2.
We'll see how it pans out going forward.

$2.30 now.
Approximately 75% growth yoy in USA. 68% rest of world.

 

[UMike]

Actually did break below the trend line but a very positive response to the Sales ann.

 

[UMike]

SALES ANN....

First $A9M sales month and $A10M revenue month
The Company is pleased to announce record monthly revenue of $A10.1m (unaudited) for April 2024. Highlights:
• The U.S. business grew strongly, with monthly sales of $A6.9m (unaudited), up circa 75.0% on STLY.
• Rest of World had monthly sales of $A2.4m (unaudited), up circa 68.2% on STLY. Strong growth continues in the UK/I, ANZ, Hong Kong, and Germany.
• Total group revenue for the month, including BARDA was $A10.1m (unaudited), up circa 68.6% on STLY.

 

[UMike]

Missed out on the top up at $1.95
Maybe I will get to take profits at $2.75

More than likely it'll trade in between just to annoy me.

 

[Knobby22]

Indicative results released.
Strong growth continues.
It was a maiden profit last year but the company should be starting to spin off cash this year.

PolyNovo Limited (PolyNovo or Company) is pleased to provide indicative trading results for FY24. • Total revenue including BARDA of A$104.8m up 57.5% on STLY of A$66.5m. • FY24 sales of A$92.0m up 54.5% on STLY of A$59.6m. • Strong growth in U.S. sales of A$68.7m up 49.0% on STLY of A$46.1m. • ROW sales of A$23.3m up by 73.1% on STLY of A$13.5m including strong performances in developed markets like UKI, Germany and ANZ.

I see Macquarie are looking for an underlying profit of $3.7 million.

 

[galumay]

If it did manage $3.7m profit it would be on a PE of about 500. The madness of narrative speculation. I am reminded of this, (PNV trading on nearly 20x sales.)

 

[UMike]

Actually "ComSuk" (thanks Doc) has it at PE 890

 

[Knobby22]

Highlights:•
Total revenue including BARDA of A$104.8m, up 57.5% on STLY of A$66.5m
• Strong growth in U.S. achieving record sales of A$68.7m up 49.0% on STLY of A$46.1m.
• ROW sales of A$23.4m up by 73.3% on STLY of A$13.5m.• Positive cash flow from operations of A$3.7m up 155.7% on STLY (A$6.6m)
• Net profit after tax of A$5.3m (FY23: A$4.9m loss)
• At year end the business had A$45.9m cash and cash equivalents.

So plenty of cash, now making a profit, plenty of upside with research for other uses e.g deep trauma burns occurring. Donating to Ukraine which is nice and shows how useful the product is.

Hopefully they achieve another year of above 50% growth.

They are going to build another manufacturing facility, which is a bit annoying, more capex needs. Should have built the first one bigger but maybe they need it to get into the USA market more and reduce costs.

 

[UMike]

Intra day starts up 5% ends down 5%
Picked the peaks well the last few months but failed to buy the dips.... Another chance of a dip?

 

[UMike]

Intra day starts up 5% ends down 5%
Picked the peaks well the last few months but failed to buy the dips.... Another chance of a dip?

Failing to trade this well at all.
Keep missing the dips

Will I get another chance????

 

[UMike]

Got rid of 2 lots over $2.78.

Just bout one of those lots now. ($2.12)

Buy - Sell ratio is 1 - 10.
Not sure if I am missing something?

 

[Country Lad]

Not sure if I am missing something?

Yes @UMike you might be misled by the raw numbers. When I looked there were 6.6 times the shares on the sell side than the buy.

You need to think of it as an auction. The more buyer interest than seller interest the price rises and vice-versa. The key word is interest. The transaction price is currently 211. The lowest buy is 110 and the highest sell is 339. These have no interest in the auction, being nowhere need the current price.

The way to try to get an indication of the likely momentum is to make an arbitrary decision on where the interest in the auction stops. When I am looking at the likely momentum, I take only the top 15% or 20% of both columns, so deciding the rest are there with unfounded hope, or forgotten to delete the order.

Using the 20% criteria the ratio becomes 1 buy share to every 1.1 sell share indicating little likely movement.

I use this very arbitrary calculation in conjunction with other indicators

 

[Knobby22]

I see price has dropped a bit after the AGM (below $2).
Polynovo will be a loser if Trump gets in as a tariff will be applied, advantaging the USA company competition.
Also suspect there may be some director selling in the window for sales.

$45.9mil cash in hand and profitable so that is always good with these biotechs. R&D taking place but seems some time off.
Might be an opportunity to buy coming up.

 

[frugal.rock]

OJ

Polynovo will be a loser if Trump gets in as a tariff will be applied, advantaging the USA company competition

Fox news has just called a Trump victory, so.... watch this space I guess.

 

[UMike]

I picked up today what I sold a few months ago.

We'll see.