PES - Pure Energy Resources

[basilio]

Just thinking about the AOE/BG takeover offers for PES.

BG is trying to trump AOE with higher cash offers and of course forcing AOE to raise their offer.

However if BG wins then there seems to be no further opportunity to cash in on PES's extensive gas reserves. However if AOE take control then PES shareholders still have an upside possibility with ongoing improvement in gas reserves and a possible Shell takeover.

Does this make sense?

 

[oldblue]

Yes, it's an interesting situation with all sorts of possible outcomes.
A lot depends on how many PES shareholders are tempted by the cash and how much BG will have to pay to satisfy them.
I can't see AOE and Shell giving up their shareholdings so at the very least BG look as though they will have to co-operate with them in some sort of JV or gas sharing arrangement.

Unless BG decides that the game's not worth the candle, of course.

 

[grace]

What a darling hey! At this rate, I might recoup all of my bad trading decisions made for the last 2 years in one go. How's that for luck.

Still holding and waiting.....

 

[oldblue]

And it certainly doesn't look as though AOE are ready to throw in the towel either.
Their current offer is unconditional and they are reviewing the situation. At the very least, they seem determined not to sell out their PES holding to BG, not that Shell would be too impressed if they did, I would imagine!

 

[Dukey]

And it certainly doesn't look as though AOE are ready to throw in the towel either.
Their current offer is unconditional and they are reviewing the situation. At the very least, they seem determined not to sell out their PES holding to BG, not that Shell would be too impressed if they did, I would imagine!

What a darling hey! At this rate, I might recoup all of my bad trading decisions made for the last 2 years in one go. How's that for luck.

Still holding and waiting.....

C'MON THE ARROW horse...!!
need the Aussie brumby to dig deep and win this race... bring on $9.5!!!


.. but seriously where will it stop?? the market obviously thinks there is at least one more offer to come... but BG seem to be deadly serious about winning. These are not small dollars being thrown about.

Time to buy up some other undervalued CSGers....(anyone care to fill in the gaps or add more?)
BOW? - from memory- few, but high quality tenements
BUL? - just got a serious CSG boffin on the board!
WCL? - supposed to be proving up resources soon.
ICN? - dunno much about these guys.
MEL? - seriously undervalued.
ESG? - dunno bout these guys either - held once but didn't go anywhere.
even LNC since they bought SXP's csg acreage in SthAus.
Big players
STO
ORG
and who did AJL sell their gas tenement to?? and more to the point - WHY!!!??

Who ever thought there's be so many opportunities in this sh!tty market!

 

[beerwm]

C'MON THE ARROW horse...!!
need the Aussie brumby to dig deep and win this race... bring on $9.5!!!


.. but seriously where will it stop?? the market obviously thinks there is at least one more offer to come... but BG seem to be deadly serious about winning. These are not small dollars being thrown about.

Time to buy up some other undervalued CSGers....(anyone care to fill in the gaps or add more?)
BOW? - from memory- few, but high quality tenements
BUL? - just got a serious CSG boffin on the board!
WCL? - supposed to be proving up resources soon.
ICN? - dunno much about these guys.
MEL? - seriously undervalued.
ESG? - dunno bout these guys either - held once but didn't go anywhere.
even LNC since they bought SXP's csg acreage in SthAus.
Big players
STO
ORG
and who did AJL sell their gas tenement to?? and more to the point - WHY!!!??

Who ever thought there's be so many opportunities in this sh!tty market!

Regarding your list;

If BG doesnt win PES, we now know they have the money and the intent for more CSG reserves,

I'd say they'd pick up the rest of WCL - already a 50% interest.- once the reserves justify a T/O

BOW and VPE also have some nice tenements around the location that BG is looking,

BUL - still a way from proving reserves

ESG-MEL - more a chance AJL/STO will be looking at these guys - due to location

If AOE doesnt get PES, im not sure.

- they cant really play for WCL,

so i guess BOW would be there play,
-But i think AOE will end up with PES - they want it more.

also

RAW, ICN, ECU which i dont know much about
and MPO

 

[basilio]

Yet another substantial jump in PES CSM reserves. Certainly should add fuel to the fire when valuing the assets.

At least it shows that the directors are on their toes in trying to encourage the best price for shareholders. It would have been an ugly look for this upgrade to come out after AOE or BG had made their last call.

And of course the fact that reserves are still accumulating with so much more exploration to be done suggest this is a real gold/gas mine.

No wonder the chase is on.

PURE ENERGY UPGRADES 2P RESERVES TO 522 PJ IN ATP 852

This upgrade represents a 32% increase in 2P reserves at the Cameron Field. Together with the recent reserve certification in Queensland permit ATP 806P, the total certified reserves and contingent resources of the Company are as follows:

 

[beerwm]

Yet another substantial jump in PES CSM reserves. Certainly should add fuel to the fire when valuing the assets.

At least it shows that the directors are on their toes in trying to encourage the best price for shareholders. It would have been an ugly look for this upgrade to come out after AOE or BG had made their last call.

And of course the fact that reserves are still accumulating with so much more exploration to be done suggest this is a real gold/gas mine.

No wonder the chase is on.

you're right about the exploration, just look at page 4.

I'd say ATP806/852 are only about 15% of the land PES has in QLD[and they can still be upgraded], just looking at ATP758 and ATP759, its no wonder this csg player is so sort after.

 

[grace]

I see the Directors are accepting BG's latest offer, "subject to a higher offer"......also see other major holders accepting in 7 days time. Still time for something more substancial in 7 days I would think.

Time for a chart, before it's history! Those who got PES on the float at 20cents not so long ago have had a nice ride....

 

[Mad Mel]

ESG-MEL - more a chance AJL/STO will be looking at these guys - due to location

Hey mate... just wondering if you're thinking AGL rather than AJL? AJL's been selling off their CSG assets, AGL's been acquiring in NSW. But there could be something I don't know about AJL.

Great listing though, your thoughts make sense.

 

[beerwm]

Hey mate... just wondering if you're thinking AGL rather than AJL? AJL's been selling off their CSG assets, AGL's been acquiring in NSW. But there could be something I don't know about AJL.

Great listing though, your thoughts make sense.

yeah AGL sorry.

I think everyone under-estimates the importance of location in all this.
If you look at the SGL T/O you see AGL have JV with SGL and was virtually buying a bigger share of their tenements, similarily PES had a few JV's with AOE. [from memory] and side/by/side tenements.

DYOR

 

[basilio]

Another week another bid.

So, market price for PES is $8.50. BG is offering $8.00 with no strings. AOE perhaps, hopefully, reconsidering its position. Shell on the sidelines wondering how much it really wants PES.

Meanwhile American banks start to look dodgy again, Eastern European countries seem poised to collectively swamp Western European banks with bad debts. Another $50 bill scam surfaces and gold keeps rising..

Does $8.50 on the market look good in the circumstances?

 

[Dukey]

Another week another bid.

So, market price for PES is $8.50. BG is offering $8.00 with no strings. AOE perhaps, hopefully, reconsidering its position. Shell on the sidelines wondering how much it really wants PES.

Meanwhile American banks start to look dodgy again, Eastern European countries seem poised to collectively swamp Western European banks with bad debts. Another $50 bill scam surfaces and gold keeps rising..

Does $8.50 on the market look good in the circumstances?

At 8.50 - the market seems to like the chances of another offer I'd think. It's certainly a possibilty and the upgrades from PES help the cause - nice to see the directors are releasing those updates openly - shows they are acting independently to the extent possible, rather than keeping them quiet for only AOE eyes!

Personally I'll hang out longer to see what happens - I'd rather PES stay 'home' with AOE if they can pull out the big $$.

Another consideration is that if AOE eventually sellout to BG - they will pick up alot of cash from their current PES holding - meaning they could go hunting for other potential gas supplies.

PES has 92Mill shares listed (according to comsec)

AOE have 20% - 18.4 Mill = X $8.5 = $ 156 Mill

Shell apparently have another 15 % = 13.8 Mill = $ 117 Mill

Thats a fair warchest - enough to buy BUL and MEL outright - though both are less advanced than PES, and maybe not strategcally right.... but it's an option I suppose - depending on how things play out from here.

 

[Ross Walker]

"The Independent Directors of Pure, who in aggregate have an interest in approximately 12% of Pure Shares, are not intending to accept Arrow’s Offer and have stated that they intend to accept BG’s Offer on 25 February 2009, subject to there being no superior proposal.

Pure has also been advised by key shareholders, Mr Tom Fontaine and Mr Karl Meade, who have an interest in approximately 5% and 3% of Pure’s issued share capital respectively, that neither of them are intending to accept Arrow’s Offer and that they intend to accept BG’s Offer on 25 February 2009, subject to there being no superior proposal."

I'm not sure why there has been no response from Arrow, but if they're going to make a counter-offer it had better be by tomorrow, otherwise BG gets an extra 20%, taking them to 30% at least.

It's going to be an interesting race to see who wins 50%. If Arrow keeps its current offer it is safe to say that BG will be well and truly over the line.

 

[basilio]

Certainly an interesting waiting game. The market seems to think Arrow won't come back again. Price is falling.

As a poker game the trick will be who can make the the last raise that still makes economic sense. Any thoughts on the current value of the reserves?

 

[jancha]

Personally i think in the long term the Arrow offer is the better one. The offer of BGs $8 looks attractive but if we all had a share of Australia to sell...would you? I know thats a bit over the top but by letting BG in as a major player.... would that not take away our jobs in the long run or doesn't that come into the equation? Long term Arrow would be stronger and more secure investment wouldn't it?

 

[Mickel]

Personally I'll hang out longer to see what happens - I'd rather PES stay 'home' with AOE if they can pull out the big $$.

Another consideration is that if AOE eventually sellout to BG - they will pick up alot of cash from their current PES holding - meaning they could go hunting for other potential gas supplies.

PES has 92Mill shares listed (according to comsec)

AOE have 20% - 18.4 Mill = X $8.5 = $ 156 Mill

Shell apparently have another 15 % = 13.8 Mill = $ 117 Mill

According to separate announcements by PES on 14/1/09, AOE now has 24.85m PES shares after excising 9m $0.30 options.This gave AOE 19.98% of PES.

Total PES shares on issue then was 124.36m

According to Commsec, Shell had 14.88% of PES on 7/10/08 when total shares on issue was at least 10m less (there was at least another 1m options excised in Dec 08), so they probably have around 14-15m shares.

If AOE do miss out on PES at least they have a nice little profit on those 9m excised options. Of course they would also have a nice profit from their other shares. Total collect $199m.

Do not hold PES (but wish I did).

 

[Dukey]

According to separate announcements by PES on 14/1/09, AOE now has 24.85m PES shares after excising 9m $0.30 options.This gave AOE 19.98% of PES.

Total PES shares on issue then was 124.36m

According to Commsec, Shell had 14.88% of PES on 7/10/08 when total shares on issue was at least 10m less (there was at least another 1m options excised in Dec 08), so they probably have around 14-15m shares.

If AOE do miss out on PES at least they have a nice little profit on those 9m excised options. Of course they would also have a nice profit from their other shares. Total collect $199m.

Do not hold PES (but wish I did).

Looks like the comsuk data I used is a bit out of date - nothing new there

Regarding new offers: I really thought shell would wake up and kick in for one more offer , but it's getting abit late in the day. Of course they could have called PES at 4.45pm and said hold off - we'll have an offer on your desk first thing tomorrow.

AOE have had a flurry of announcements lately - maybe they are trying to shore up their sp and draw attention to their 'many fingers in many pies' strategy. AOE shares are attractive in ther own right - and even more attractive wth PES incorporated.

I expect most of us would prefer AOE - an aussie company - to win control of PES, but then they will probably be at the mercy of shell anyway - maybe even taken over sometime down the track... It's a tough one. I wanna see AOE win, but I want full value - I'm sure most are in the same position.

A nice announcement from AOE tomorrow am would make it all too easy - but if BG trumped them again then think it would be all over.

- tomorrow could be the clincher... - duke-E

 

[grace]

Yes Dukey, tomorrow is D-Day. I wonder what price this would have been had we still been in a bull market? I guess some would say coal seam gas has been the only bull while there is bleeding out on the street. We may have got double if it was still 2007 fever! But I guess, with everything else going for less than half price, it's all relative.

 

[anatol]

What if ; AOE buys another %16 PES shares over $8 from the market and goes over 50.1% together with Shell, and take the control of PES. (This is what BG wants to do, but they are quite far from doing that for now)

After buying that %16 shares, AOE would not need to buy any more of them at that $8 price. Then they would leave it to the market.

Would BG buy any more at $8 price if AOE goes over 50.1% ? (I wouldn't as there is no meaning for it. It would be waste of money)

If not, what would happen to the SP of the PES shares who are still being hold by their owners. If no one buys, SP will go down. (It is going down now)

Be careful PES holders.

DON'T TRUST TO BG.
They don't know what they are doing. BG should have bought half of ORG last year, or should have bought AOE instead of QGC, plus PES, easily. That would be enough for them. Now they are trying to repair their mistake by paying more money. They paid a lot of money to QGC which does not have a larger CSG reserves than AOE. Also QGC's big acrages (ATP688P in Bowen Basin and ATP769P in Surat Basin) are shared 50% with WCL and there are no certified reserves on these acrages (and the biggest acrage 688P in Bowen basin is not very hopefull because of the volcanic staff mixed in the CSG here). ATP811P (next to PES acarage in Bowen Basin) and ATP693P are already left by WCL as there was no hope for CSG in them. So what is left? There are some acrages in Surat Basin, but they are not enough. Who is left? PES and AOE ! Can BG buy them? Not sure!

It is obvious thaat AOE will not bid for PES anymore.

I would sell PES shares over $8 now and buy AOE shares if I was holding PES shares.

(I am an AOE share holder)