PES - Pure Energy Resources

[Logique]

Two points of view from earlier in this thread. A confusing business! Greedywolf's overall scenario has a chance of playing out, certainly greedywolf was right (so far) about the "taking out" of PES by AOE.

On the other hand I see no great encouragement in Trader Paul's astrology predictions, or in his for AOE, unless I'm reading it all wrong. Trader Paul is big on the resurgence of the POO (Price of Oil) in 2009, so this should help energy stocks generally.

Trader Paul on 21 July:
PES ... August 2008 ... 3 significant and positive cycles

September/October 2008 ... 3 significant and negative cycles expected

January 2009 ... significant and negative news expected

greedywolf on 29 October:
hey everyone,
I hate to be the one to pessimistic but i dont think PES will make it to next christmas. Have a feeling that once some reserves are proved up, which they are aiming for by the end of the financial year, AOE will make its move. They haven't built a stake in the company to sell at a later date for a few dollars. Same goes for Shell, the only reason Shell got in was so AOE wouldn't breach the mandatory takeover provision in the Corps Act. Just a matter of timing now, once some reserves are proved up AOE will buy the stake off Shell then launch a bid for the rest of the company, after which Shell will probably launch a bid for AOE, either way PES shareholders will lose out on the full potential of the company which is sad!

DYOR!!!

 

[basilio]

Well PES is now around $5.00 after bouncing up to $5.50.

Does anyway have any thoughts on taking the money now rather than selling through the takeover? (Assuming it isn't withdrawn.) It seems that as AOE falls PES also falls - which makes sense given the takeover is effectively half AOE stock.

Any ideas?

 

[grace]

Well PES is now around $5.00 after bouncing up to $5.50.

Does anyway have any thoughts on taking the money now rather than selling through the takeover? (Assuming it isn't withdrawn.) It seems that as AOE falls PES also falls - which makes sense given the takeover is effectively half AOE stock.

Any ideas?

You would sell if you thought Arrow will continue lower. Pure is following its movements. Depends on the rest of the market.

Other thing to consider is CGT. It has no bearing on me as I exercised options and won't get one year anyway.

 

[beerwm]

there has been about a 20c-50c premium on the PES shares in comparison to AOE takeover price.

something to consider.

AOE would need to be $1.90 for $5.00 to be the final takeover offer price.

can someone explain to me CGT in terms of this takeover? is there any difference.

 

[Dukey]

Well... another 1231PJ of 3P resources for PES - it aint half easy to see why AOE couldn't wait any longer.... with the quality of PES' other tenements - their total resources alone could be much larger again.

Obviously AOE got a bargain - but at least we (PES holders) will get some AOE shares to get our bite of the cherry.... + some realised $$$ from the T/O.

I honestly think CSG/CSM is the only place to be in this market turmoil.... at least for the time being...everything else I look at is f'ing scary!!!!!!!!!
-E

 

[grace]

Well... another 1231PJ of 3P resources for PES - it aint half easy to see why AOE couldn't wait any longer.... with the quality of PES' other tenements - their total resources alone could be much larger again.

Obviously AOE got a bargain - but at least we (PES holders) will get some AOE shares to get our bite of the cherry.... + some realised $$$ from the T/O.

I honestly think CSG/CSM is the only place to be in this market turmoil.... at least for the time being...everything else I look at is f'ing scary!!!!!!!!!
-E

Yes Dukey, a special little one this was. I thought 5000 PJ by the end of 2009, and I see that in their contingent reserves now. It would have eventually been a fairytale end even if left alone. I still hold Pure, I guess for the upside in Arrow, can't bring myself to sell on-market for some reason. Perhaps holders won't accept and they might have to offer more. Nice thought.

 

[basilio]

Yes Dukey, a special little one this was. I thought 5000 PJ by the end of 2009, and I see that in their contingent reserves now. It would have eventually been a fairytale end even if left alone. I still hold Pure, I guess for the upside in Arrow, can't bring myself to sell on-market for some reason. Perhaps holders won't accept and they might have to offer more. Nice thought.

Feb 9th BG offers $6.40 cash for PES

Nice piece of oracling Grace.. PES always looked absurdly cheap given the proven reserves. Just great that there will finally be a more realistic price paid for the resources. And I'm not unhappy I waited..... Yippee!!!

 

[grace]

Feb 9th BG offers $6.40 cash for PES

Nice piece of oracling Grace.. PES always looked absurdly cheap given the proven reserves. Just great that there will finally be a more realistic price paid for the resources. And I'm not unhappy I waited..... Yippee!!!

Hello basilio. I noticed the Director (the major shareholder) buying a few more on market last week. I thought to myself, I'm not going to part with mine just yet if he is still buying on market. Did he know something? I think so.

 

[Dukey]

Hello basilio. I noticed the Director (the major shareholder) buying a few more on market last week. I thought to myself, I'm not going to part with mine just yet if he is still buying on market. Did he know something? I think so.

Holy cow!!
- must admit I had figured it was pretty much all done and dusted, and at first view just now i thought BG must be wanting to eat AOE... but they want PES!!... lets hope a resulting bidding war kicks the price up a few rungs.

any ideas on how this thing is gonna play out??... I can't see AOE being at all happy to let PES go as it seems they've been planning on swallowing them since they spun PES off years back.... if they let PES go they might well find themselves short of gas for LNG and other developments down the track...
??

VERY interesting times indeed!!
-e

 

[beerwm]

This really was a nice suprise this morning

its still a bargain though in my opinion

should be fetching closer to $8- $10 on current prices. Not considering the excellent location in respect to AOE and BG tenements.

I do hope AOE comes back with a strong offer, i'd like to sell my shares to them.

Interesting times indeed dukey

 

[grace]

This is worth a read, on Business Spectator tonight.

"Shells last chance"

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Shells-last-chance-$pd20090209-P48KQ?OpenDocument&src=sph

 

[basilio]

Game on.. Arrow has upped the offer to $3.00 plus 1.57 AOE shares for each PES shares. Value is stated as $7.16.

More significantly they have abandoned the 90% minimum (wonder why ) and want to roll this up very quickly. They want to start taking shares from tomorrow (Feb 12th)

Thought it was a bit fascinating how they claimed PES offered excellent proven resources and potentially a ton more on the rest of the tenement. So why the scungy initial offer?

Any thoughts on how high this could go? And do shareholders who don't sell early obtain the final price?

 

[grace]

Game on.. Arrow has upped the offer to $3.00 plus 1.57 AOE shares for each PES shares. Value is stated as $7.16.

More significantly they have abandoned the 90% minimum (wonder why ) and want to roll this up very quickly. They want to start taking shares from tomorrow (Feb 12th)

Thought it was a bit fascinating how they claimed PES offered excellent proven resources and potentially a ton more on the rest of the tenement. So why the scungy initial offer?

Any thoughts on how high this could go? And do shareholders who don't sell early obtain the final price?

I'm holding tight. BG are listed as number 8 on the London Stock Exchange by market cap. I'm not sure about Shell, but they have deep pockets too. Let's see what happens.....

 

[Dangerous]

someone sent me a table they did up in June last year... BG market cap was about $70B and Shell $132B.

Not sure how correct i am, but Shell definately a lot bigger than BG

Shell announced a loss last week i recall....

Bottom line is Shell need to work out their CSG stance asap and BG is bullying them into that so that they can plan for the consolidation process... Let's be serious, there cannot be more than two LNG plants in Gladstone at most

 

[oldblue]

Plenty of scenarios left on this but I wonder what the chances are of BG and Shell eventually working together ( with AOE) ?
Would seem to be a preferable outcome for them than trying to drown your opponent in your own blood, which is what the current situation could lead to.
Any history of BG and Shell J/V's?

Disc: Hold AOE.

 

[basilio]

Plenty of scenarios left on this but I wonder what the chances are of BG and Shell eventually working together ( with AOE) ?
Would seem to be a preferable outcome for them than trying to drown your opponent in your own blood, which is what the current situation could lead to

.

If BG hadn't come onto the scene then PES shareholders would have had a relatively small offer - particularly considering the size of the reserves.

I believe the future will be about large, environmentally friendly gas reserves and these will command a premium price. Considering the carnage on the sharemarket this year it would be good for shareholders to get a fair price for what will be exceptional gas reserves.

 

[dirkdiggler444]

Would it be fair to say that since todays closing price of PES was $7.35, then people are betting on a counter offer from BG that is higher than the most recent AOE offer of $7.16 ???

incidentally, ($2.530 x 1.57) + $3 = $6.97 on todays close of AOE.

I went to check the price and thought it would be less than $7.16, but its at $7.35. any other explanation??

 

[beerwm]

BG would never of thought they would take PES for $6.40,

considering how important it is to Shell/AOE and the whole gladstone/csg game.

I'd say, they will make an offer in a week, once the AOE share price settles, [ie. i think it might deflate], so when they offer the cash $7.50-$8.00 the $7.16 offer by AOE will be more like $6.80.

 

[Dukey]

BG would never of thought they would take PES for $6.40,

considering how important it is to Shell/AOE and the whole gladstone/csg game.

I'd say, they will make an offer in a week, once the AOE share price settles, [ie. i think it might deflate], so when they offer the cash $7.50-$8.00 the $7.16 offer by AOE will be more like $6.80.

I agree BG would have expected a sh!te fight for PES - they will already have a fair idea of their next offer... but who wants PES more and where it will end is anybodies guess.

offer history
AOE - circa $5 (depending on value of AOE scrip)
BG - $ 6.40
AOE - circa $ 7.16 (so says arrow)
BG - $ ??? << the big ????

One of the problems I see for BG - the more they offer for PES - the greater the implied value for AOE's existing reserves which might help keep AOE price strong.??

Still kicking myself I didn't buy more!!!.
-D

 

[basilio]

Came across an early analysis of the AOE takeover offer for PES in one of the stock adviser companies. (let's not embarrass them any further. It's still on line.)

Arrow Energy (AOE) bid for Pure Resources (PES)
AOE has launched a part-cash offer of $2.70 plus 1.21 AOE shares for each PES share. AOE trades at $2.61, which values the offer at and PES at $5.86, a substantial premium to PES, which is trading at $5.33. The PES board has recommended the deal, so on balance it's likely this will be the final offer. At this stage, there is no arbitrage opportunity for us to be involved in.

Given the widespread knowledge of

1) The size and value of PES gas reserves versus the initial AOE offer
2) The interest that other parties would have in such reserves

I'm surprised that professional analysts could get it so wrong. But then thats why we have ASF.