PES - Pure Energy Resources

[anatol]

Shell may go a completely different direction: Santos. Santos has both gas, and a site for a LNG facility. To be honest, I will be completely surprised if STO isn't bought by one of RDS or XOM (or maybe even BG) in the next year.

Yes, Dangerous explained. Santos has a very big problem with the Mud flow caused by their drilling in Indenosia. Some other big guy was looking to takeover Santos but they hesitated because of that big risk over Santos.

 

[anatol]

Anatol;

BG would not make a $1,000,000,000 bid for PES, just to "punish" AOE. And certainly not offer them $8.25 for shares they picked up for <$1.00.

-and why would the buy a stake in PES at $5.00+ then? if they intended to T/O PES all along. <$3

Shell's intentions are not of pure business. Take their 10-15% stake in PES, they were happy to sell to AOE at $5.00, but now have gone silent. If it was purely business they would of accepted or intended to accept BG's superior offer. Shell's intentions arent entirely clear.

And why would BG make a hostile bid for AOE now? they have inflated AOE's price by upping the bid for PES [ie. csg], and why wouldnt they make a T/O after AOE acquired PES.

-

Basically, BG has contracts and need CSG. PES is great value at $8.25. So BG must be very happy with themselves, they have upped their reserves at a good price.

AOE dont have the money BG has.

Sorry Berrwm, I am tired of talking on the same issues. I have alrady explained the answer of all your questions before on my post (In PEs and AOE threads). I told the scenario above. It is just a scenario. We'll see in the future. It may happen or not. And this is a think-tank here.

 

[TheAbyss]

All over bar the shouting now. Shell have sold their stake in PES to BG. That will be the end of the counter offers for sure.

Congratulations to all PES holders.

 

[oldblue]

So Shell have decided to accept BG's offer in the absence of a better one.

Now where does that leave AOE, sitting with 19% odd or taking the cash and trying for something else, like BOW?

 

[basilio]

Looks like game over with PES and at least a fairer result for shareholders than originally suggested by AOE.

Any thoughts on the next targets for AOE?

 

[beerwm]

I'm not sure if its gameover yet, AOE considering their 'options' is getting annoying though, and im glad this is finally drawing to a close with a push from Shell.

I'll be selling once BG gets 50.1%, thats gameover i feel.

as for next targets;

I cant see AOE going into NSW, and BOW doesnt make much sense.

WCL - who should have results in the coming months, would be my bet.
many seem to think BPT's share of TiponWest, but i dont think it represents good value.

 

[Dukey]

So - Shell did 'take the money and run'.

- obviously just about impossible for AOE now - I'd say the best they can hope for is to hold out and bargain for a bite of decent PES tenements, and then go looking elsewhere.....

Not sure who or where - WCL's main CSG interests were farm-ins (50% I think) to SHG tenements - since bought by QGC - since bought by BG !!!... so I don't see much chance for AOE there.
The reason I bought MEL is that less than 150k of pipeline will see them able to feed into SEQld - the fastest growing part of Oz (last time i checked). I'm sure I remember elec supply problems in SEQ at various peak demand times in the not to distant past. --> ie. they need more electricity!

But anyway - both MEL and WCL and all the others have their own threads - there are various amounts of research there already.
---------
BG may indeed be interested in AOE too - but only at the right price - and the trouble is the price they are now paying for PES should mean they would have to pay an almost crazy price to win AOE. I'm not gonna do the numbers - but rest assured they would be BIG. Around $5Bill just on AOE's 2P reserves alone (2500 odd PJ! -not too shabby) - not even thinking about powerplants, infrastructure, asian ventures etc.
That's why I think if BG really wanted AOE, they would have just let them swallow PES cheaply and then gone for the lot (AOE and PES together). They are smart enough to know that - so I can only presume they didn't want AOE (unless it's very cheap).

AOE to hold out for split up of PES - is where my money is at the moment.

 

[Dukey]

A question - can anyone think of a way i can avoid selling PES till next Fin year!!! - and obviously still get $8+.!!

any ideas? This year is already gonna kill me in tax!

(maybe some others are in a similar position?).

 

[anatol]

Regarding to Shell's attitude; ... CSG reserves are too small for them. So what is the rush for them! AOE sould look after themselves.

AOE directors are so smart, they saw this situation, which Shell would not help them much. Shell did not do anything other than making an announcement of "looking for a LNG plant land in Curtis Island" during the PES war either. Then AOE .... made their own strategy to buy as much as PES shares and increase their % in it. Then they would bargain for some tenements as they don't need the money but the gas, like BG.

Maybe, maybe,.. If above thesis is right (Shell is not very supportive to AOE is proven) BG may put a hostile bid on AEO after everything has settled down. This might happen easily if AOE SP is still under $3. I can see a good chance for this. Because AOE will have a very good position with those tenements. There is a very good logic in that takeover and it is viable. That would be the best business decison of BG then. I have the whole tenements map, I can see BG's and AOE tenements are all coming all next to each others.

This was what I said yesterday. It is proven today. Now the third stage. AOE will be taken over by BG. There is no other option for AOE now as its partnership with Shell is destroyed and it is all alone. No more dance with the wolves.

They will hammer the SP of AOE now. After bringing it at around $2 then put the hostile bid, I think at maybe at around $3.2-3.5 (It includes $20 of PES). Total price might be around $2.5b. It might be very reasonable for many shareholders at this bad conditions.

 

[Dangerous]

i don't see this being good for AOE or their shareholders. It is clear that BG don't want AOE or else they would have let them swallow PES at the $5 mark or whatever it was, wait around while the share price goes down due to the dilution and then snap them up and in effect get PES for half the price...

the question for me is - are Shell moving to the Voelte side of the ring in terms of their view on CSG... For AOE i hope not! That said, they are not exactly chafing at the bit to get CSG acreage. My gut says Shell will walk away from QLD.


(BTW Anatol - i too own AOE so not having a dig)

 

[jancha]

Hi Dangerous. Are you saying that Shell could see the writing on the wall.... paid 700mil for a 30% stake of AOE & 10% of PES just to make a quick buck & then walk away leaving it to BG never really having any interest in CSG? Do you feel that Bg & Shell are in control here, just playing it out & the loser being AOE?

 

[beerwm]

Shell would of had some pressure to accept the BG Offer anyway,

Accepting a $5.00 but not accepting an $8.00 would of raised some question with the regulators.

 

[Dangerous]

Hi Dangerous. Are you saying that Shell could see the writing on the wall.... paid 700mil for a 30% stake of AOE & 10% of PES just to make a quick buck & then walk away leaving it to BG never really having any interest in CSG? Do you feel that Bg & Shell are in control here, just playing it out & the loser being AOE?

I don't think they were in it for the quick buck, but rather all the cool kids were looking at CSG so they are doing feasability. They are either getting close to taking AOE or have decided to leave it at 30%. That said, they will move slower than BG so perhaps it could take a few a months to play out.

Still a lot of hands to play in this game. There is no way there will be more than two plants at Gladstone. ORG, STO and BG are all using the same CP designed plants by memory. Add to that the fact that there will only be one pipe to Gladstone and there are still a lot of exciting developments for us to log on to ASF and have a good old BS.

Notice BOW's reserves certification folks? Only 28c/share on PES values by my quick calcs. Interestingly AOE is worth about $3.28 on the PES valuation (3P that is) and they are far more developed than the little guys. So why does the mkt value them at $2.50??? Hence the pessimism

 

[Dangerous]

OIP are a NSW explorer with more cash in the bank than their market cap! Why has the market not jumped on them yet? Any idea anyone?

It appears to be a cigar butt as Buffet would say

 

[subi1]

Hi Dangerous. Are you saying that Shell could see the writing on the wall.... paid 700mil for a 30% stake of AOE & 10% of PES just to make a quick buck & then walk away leaving it to BG never really having any interest in CSG? Do you feel that Bg & Shell are in control here, just playing it out & the loser being AOE?

Shell don't own 30% of Arrow. They own 30% of their Qld acreage and 10% of their international properties(excl India)

Also Shell haven't sold to BG yet. They are saying they will accept BG'S offer unless a superior offer comes in.

Arrow have said they are still thinking about the takeover and they might come back with another offer(WHO KNOWS).

There still could be more action here and we should find out within the next few weeks.

All this is my opinion of what is going on and I suggest everybody read the announcements from Arrow & PES to get all the facts.

 

[Dukey]

So - current state of play:

BG - ~45% of PES (unless a higher bid comes along, which appears unlikely but not impossible).

AOE - 20%. the on market buying by AOE does not seem to have eventuated - unless they are somehow doing it very quietly, and waiting to drop a bombshell.

------------
as for BG buying AOE after all this... I'd say they will have to pay at least $6 per AOE share - more like $7-$9.
Don't see that happening too soon. Would have made much more sense to take AOE and PES in one bite.

... but again - NOT impossible.

-e

 

[Logique]

'Bout right Dukey, in my opinion.

The question still occupying my mind is: what the hell are Shell playing at. Now saying they will sell into the BG bid. Not earning much admiration for the way they've conducted themselves through this. I predicted a stalemate between the two consortiums, but if Shell sell out there's a good chance BG will now get the controlling stake in PES.

This will not be helpful for the AOE share price, so if BG are thinking future AOE takeover - having secured most of PES they could afford to sit back and wait for the right time. At what price? The PES deal has upped the bar, so I agree $6 would be a minimum, possibly much more, but no rush now for BG.

 

[Dukey]

Mmmm - interesting announcement today from BG - they have gained only 1.5Mill PES shares in the last 6 days - about 1.x %.

I guess this means folks are either selling on market (as you would) or holding on tight to see what happens, rather than going to BG.

slow progress for them.

and who is buying on market?

 

[Ross Walker]

I guess this means folks are either selling on market (as you would) or holding on tight to see what happens, rather than going to BG.

So Dukey, have you sold yet, or still holding? How about you Grace? I may sell my remaining stake on market. Seems BG may have trouble getting 90%.

R.

 

[subi1]

So Dukey, have you sold yet, or still holding? How about you Grace? I may sell my remaining stake on market. Seems BG may have trouble getting 90%.

R.

Is it possible Arrow will still come back? From what I read in Arrow's latest announcement they were still considering their takeover offer. I didn't think it was all over but I guess only time will tell.

Anybody else waiting to see what happens?