PEN - Peninsula Energy

[tech/a]

FA will always wallop TA for an emerging story like PEN.

All that guff about TA on the U price chart is simply bunk.

Anyone with even a basic appreciation of the uranium market knows that the spot price (as depicted in that chart) is essentially irrelevant when it comes to the price that uranium producers (hopefully PEN in 2012) agree contractually with end users i.e. utilities and the like.

Last time I check 80-90% of uranium mined is sold this way (and even the contractual agreements vary significantly wrt price, delivery, CPI adjustments, floor and ceiling prices etc).

The uranium market price setting mechanisms are very opaque. Individual contract prices can and DO vary significantly from the so called (quoted) long term contract price which hovers just south of 70/lb last time I checked.

So, in conclusion, any one making investment decisions based on the chart of the spot price is making one big error.

Really?

So going forward what price do you think will be being negotiated for "U" now?
Do you really think end users will be negotiating a higher price than current spot??

So "U" companies are currently getting higher than Spot price and STILL falling.
Hell future looks rosy!

Think Im reading my fair share of bunk in this post.

 

[skc]

So "U" companies are currently getting higher than Spot price and STILL falling.
Hell future looks rosy!

Think Im reading my fair share of bunk in this post.

Yes. Or rosy comments like this...

It offers excellent upside for low cost entry. If the naysayers of uranium are proved correct and the price goes down, then PEN will survive with others placed on hold and others simply fade away. Only LOW COST producers will survive.

The irony of that scenario is that the U price will be forced up due to lack of sufficient supply for existing energy producers, let alone the many new ones coming online. The others will then seek to proceed to mining whilst PEN takes the ake and the cream of a spike in the U price until supply meets demand.

PEN gg is simply a winner no matter what the U price is, others need it to be higher. If it goes higher a forecast, then PEN wins regardless.

PEN will be a winner on "relative" terms. That doesn't automatically make the shareholder a winner in "absolute" terms.

You want U price to be high, you want exchange rate to be low, and you want there to be lots of stuff in the ground. So far none of these are given.

 

[hangseng]

Yes. Or rosy comments like this...

PEN will be a winner on "relative" terms. That doesn't automatically make the shareholder a winner in "absolute" terms.

You want U price to be high, you want exchange rate to be low, and you want there to be lots of stuff in the ground. So far none of these are given.

Highly selective and derogatory comment skc...

Read in full context along with my post #1675

I said as much in that post and could not have been any more ballanced, yet you chose to ignore that to support your derogatory "rosy" comment.

Lots of kickers around here and often, with very few worthy contributors.

As for "lots of stuff in the ground" not being a given, you need to do some homework. As for the U price I still hold "supply and demand" are what will eventually drive that. At present it has been negative sentiment since Fukashima, not reality.

 

[tech/a]

not reality.

H/S Very much reality!!

There has been and will continue to be a shift in thinking.
There are alternatives to Yellow cake.
None of the issues seen with current Nuclear production.

Conveniently over looked

 

[hangseng]

Really?

So going forward what price do you think will be being negotiated for "U" now?
Do you really think end users will be negotiating a higher price than current spot??

So "U" companies are currently getting higher than Spot price and STILL falling.
Hell future looks rosy!

tech, tech, tech....do some reading

http://www.u3o8.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/file/Uranium Price.pdf

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/dancing-on-uraniums-grave-but-it-aint-dead-yet/2011/06/15/

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=F3A19326-0ECA-EB58-BCAFD237D7E8A63E


It is a fact that can't be denied.

Companies pay a higher that the spot price for long term contracts. That is not "bunk" it is a plain and simple fact and flyboy is as I said, "spot on" with his comment.

In July 2010 the U3O8 price was around $46/lb spot price and PEN negotiated a long term contract price of around $74/lb.

Components of the Uranium Market
Primary Supply = 60%

Spot Price is only 1% of the total primary supply market

Long-Term Market Price is 59% of the total primary supply market


Secondary Supply =40%

Spot Market 14% of the total secondary supply market


Long-Term Market Price 26% of the total secondary supply market


Spot Market = Only 15% of total market

Long-Term Market Price = 85% of total market

Crikeys people do some homework, it isn't really that hard.

 

[madjohn]

Friday, July 29, 2011 CHINA

BUSINESS NEWS

Markets

Commodities Precious metals Stock Statistics
Tourism
CLP pays US$11b for nuke plant stake
HONG Kong utility CLP Holdings Ltd yesterday said it has bought a 17 percent stake in a nuclear power plant in southern China for 70 billion yuan (US$11 billion).

CLP said its nuclear investment unit signed a deal with China Guangdong Nuclear Power Company Ltd to buy the stake in the Yangjiang Nuclear Power Station.

Construction started in 2008 on the 6,000 megawatt plant in western Guangdong Province, which consists of six 1,000MW pressurized water reactors. The plant, which is 220 kilometers west of Hong Kong, is expected to be completed in phases from 2013 to 2017. The electricity produced will be sold locally.

The two firms also run the coastal Daya Bay nuclear plant, which is also in Guangdong and sends most of its power to Hong Kong.

China is promoting alternative energy sources such as nuclear, wind and solar to curb surging demand for imported oil and gas and to reduce environmental damage from heavy reliance on coal.

However, government officials signaled the country’s nuclear policy would stress safety over rapid development following Japan’s devastating nuclear crisis, which was sparked by a huge tsunami in March that damaged a coastal power plant.

CLP sought to allay safety fears about the new plant, saying it “carefully assessed” safety standards of the design, construction and operational planning to make sure they comply with regulations.

The power plant will also follow “safety enhancement measures for withstanding extreme multiple natural disasters and strengthening capability for emergency preparedness,” CLP said.

China’s nuclear regulators said in June safety reviews of 28 reactors under construction should be done by October. Thirteen operating plants were checked and given clean bills of health. – Shanghai Daily





Tags: CLP Holdings



Posted by CBN on Jul 26 2011. Filed under Energy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry




Posted by CBN on Jul 26 2011. Filed under Energy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

 

[hangseng]

H/S Very much reality!!

..... and will continue to be a shift in thinking.

That is your opinion of which you are entitled to, I happen to disagree as is my opinion.

The only shift in thinking has been a knee jerk reaction from Germany (political decision and they as yet have no other alternatives) and journalists that thrive on simpsons education and creating fear driven paranoia.

Posting that doesn't make it fact.

 

[Chalea]

FA will always wallop TA for an emerging story like PEN.

All that guff about TA on the U price chart is simply bunk.

So, in conclusion, any one making investment decisions based on the chart of the spot price is making one big error.

If the MACD falls through it's signal line on Monday the SP will be walloped...

 

[Donga]

If I had the time to watch PEN's every move, and regarded my day trading ability high enough (of which I don't as yet) I believe I would have at least half of my current holdings in PEN as trading stock.

But with me I am merely a simple learned soul, so I rely on what I actually know and what I believe will occur. My holdings in PEN are well in profit now and I believe will go much higher as I have stated before.

If PEN isn't looking like doing what I believe it will or falters in the next 12 months, be sure that I will move on regardless based on fundamentals of both PEN and the industry. Asd you rightly point out there will need to be an appreciation, or at least a holding of the current uranium price for me to achieve my end goal.

I am not "in love" with this stock, I am excited with what it has the potential to do.

Have kept the bits of one of your recent posts here HS that mirror my sentiments - have a fulltime job, retire end August and even then don't wish to spend my life on the stock market. In past two years have done very well and consolidated my play portfolio to a team of 20 small cap miners, of which the top 5 represent 70% of the portfolio and PEN is the largest. Didn't consider selling at 15 cents, first stop was going to be 20c and now will wait until next year, when I'm 60 (wow) before selling any so won't pay any tax at all.

PEN and other uranium miners have been dealt harshly, and you are right that it is "sentiment" not the reality that will dawn for some sooner than others as PEN head towards production in a nuclear friendly environment (btw saving many lives in the process - for those unaware of fossil fuels fatalities per annum, pls just spend 10 mins googling - funny how so many "Greens" don't seem to be able to look at the data).

So much for my rant of the day, am as keen on PEN as ever and would be interested in your comments hangseng on the Quarterly released today.

 

[skc]

Highly selective and derogatory comment skc...

Read in full context along with my post #1675

I said as much in that post and could not have been any more ballanced, yet you chose to ignore that to support your derogatory "rosy" comment.

Lots of kickers around here and often, with very few worthy contributors.

As for "lots of stuff in the ground" not being a given, you need to do some homework. As for the U price I still hold "supply and demand" are what will eventually drive that. At present it has been negative sentiment since Fukashima, not reality.

You said PEN is a winner regardless of U price because it is a low cost producer. I said PEN will only be a "relative" winner if the U price is low. Ignoring that fact would adopting an optimistic outlook to say the least.

So how is that "derogatory"?

P.S. Please don't answer or Joe will have to post here again.

 

[Chalea]

So right now PEN is trading at below what the Nucore base VWAP will be. So the minimum Nucore will pay is 11.25c per PEN share and maximum of 14.25c.

Yet PEN trades now at 7.2c ......sigh

Does the 'due diligence' mentioned below include technical analysis of PEN's chart? corn:

 

[tech/a]

If the MACD falls through it's signal line on Monday the SP will be walloped...

Oh my oh my

Please understand that MACD will not cross below it's M/A unless price falls
Price WON'T fall because of the MACD the M/A's are a calculation from price action and a reaction to price---a trailing indicator.

MACD has no effect on a price.

 

[Chalea]

MACD has no effect on a price.

Pleeeeease....:shake:

So when the traders do their scans Monday night and see PEN has performed a MACD bear cross they're going to buy?

SELL?

 

[hangseng]

You said PEN is a winner regardless of U price because it is a low cost producer. I said PEN will only be a "relative" winner if the U price is low. Ignoring that fact would adopting an optimistic outlook to say the least.

So how is that "derogatory"?

P.S. Please don't answer or Joe will have to post here again.

You chose to post a small selection of what I posted then termed it "rosy" in a clearly derogatory manner.

If you had read my other posts and comprehended what I posted I actually agree with what you state. So why you chose to post what you did is beyond me.

I made it very clear that even if the U price drops PEN will succeed. I also stated that it is also unlikely my goals would be met and I would sell and move on, if in fact that occurred. So put simply I implied that the PEN share price is unlikely to increase to the levels I had hoped, should the (long term) uranium price fall to such levels.

If you want to quote posters to make a point use the full story not as you did. Doing what you did placed my posts totally out of context.

 

[tech/a]

Pleeeeease....:shake:

So when the traders do their scans Monday night and see PEN has performed a MACD bear cross they're going to buy?

SELL?

MACD will only cross if price falls.

Price will be falling MACD is only two averages

 

[hangseng]

Heres is one for the techs to beat each other up on.

This is a computer generated view only.

Technical Analysis

Overall ★★★ Neutral


Price and moving averages

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND below long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that:
This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and NEUTRAL in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands

PEN.AX has closed below upper band by 33.4%. Bollinger Bands are 56.2% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to PEN.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this narrow range for 19 bars.
This is a sign that the market may be about to initiate a new trend.

★ Strong Sell ★★ Sell ★★★ Neutral ★★★★ Buy ★★★★★ Strong Buy

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=pen&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Should be like a red rag to a bull lol...


I should add this was generated AFTER market close today.

 

[Chalea]

MACD will only cross if price falls.

I know...

"If the MACD falls through it's signal line on Monday the SP will be walloped..."

Should read -

If the price falls resulting in the MACD crossing down through it's signal line on Monday the SP will be walloped because traders will sell when they see a bear signal...

...and they have seen my price targets...

Thanks for the opportunity of repeating this important message!

 

[Chalea]

Heres is one for the techs to beat each other up on.
This is a computer generated view only.
Should be like a red rag to a bull lol...

I should add this was generated AFTER market close today.

LOL, so was this one!

Here's one for the management believing fundamental buyers to beat each other up on.

Day 15 today I believe...

 

[$20shoes]

If the price falls resulting in the MACD crossing down through it's signal line on Monday there will literally be no influence at all on the share price. Buyers and sellers will say look at your MAs, remark "how cute" and continue exchanging parcels of shares at fair value for any given moment in time.

 

[hangseng]

LOL, so was this one!

Here's one for the management believing fundamental buyers to beat each other up on.

Day 15 today I believe...

Yes Chalea it is day 15 and nothing has come out. Yes it is a disappointment and what we were told hasn't eventuated, so what. That along with a down market and jitters over the US debt position hasn't helped most stocks today.

Round one to you Knock yourself out!

But hey that's life, it's Friday, you get that and I need a beer or two.


Have a great weekend all