PEN - Peninsula Energy

[tech/a]

Interesting H/S
I note then that you have been in the position twice for a 5b and not taken it.
(You evidently have an average of around 3c----although you added at 11c and 13c--
your average will be increased).
So 30c to 40c is your 10b target.
Not impossible PROVIDED demand for "U" is increased and price rises as a consequence.
Its as clear as day that that is the driving influence on PEN price not the other spin---errrrr ----associated production announcements

I agree there has been both atrocious and questionable T/A presented up---but also some worthy of consideration.

I still think a T/A could trade this with less risk,better allocation of capital and are more likely to return 10b on capital invested by TRADING it.

 

[Chalea]

I agree there has been both atrocious and questionable T/A presented up.

What is this, Masterchef?

Why don't you post a chart that points to PEN's rosy future?

Holders should compare PEN's recent chart to THIS.

 

[tech/a]

What is this, Masterchef?

Why don't you post a chart that points to PEN's rosy future?

Holders should compare PEN's recent chart to THIS.

Why dont you take the time to look back on the thread and read the technical Analysis already presented by myself and others.

As for now my last analysis is still valid and as such doesnt need up dating.
You seem to have an opinion of my stance on PEN.

I dont have a stance other than that presented technically.
post #1544 covers it in a nutshell.

Back to your books apprentice.

 

[Chalea]

Why dont you take the time to look back on the thread and read the technical Analysis already presented by myself and others.

As for now my last analysis is still valid and as such doesnt need up dating.
You seem to have an opinion of my stance on PEN.

I dont have a stance other than that presented technically.
post #1544 covers it in a nutshell.

Back to your books apprentice.

LOL, that's not a double bottom, merely a test of support...

Can only be considered a double bottom if 12c is broken. Until then it's just wishful thinking...

 

[tech/a]

Where's 12c come into it.????

Do you actually trade or are you still on school holidays?




Current holdings and status

Yours are?

 

[Chalea]

Where's 12c come into it.????

Oh dear, and you call me an apprentice?
I can't believe I'm being asked this but here goes...

You can't call any pattern a double top/bottom unless the trough/peak between the 2 points is broken.

Are you aware the SP bounced to 12c after the crash?

Link

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Oh dear, and you call me an apprentice?
I can't believe I'm being asked this but here goes...

You can't call any pattern a double top/bottom unless the trough/peak between the 2 points is broken.

Are you aware the SP bounced to 12c after the crash?

Link

Hardly a test of support. Support was broken when the price went through 0.075 - clear area of resistance at that price point.

Regarding double bottom - using your link:

As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive toughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between.

Tech/a is spot on about the double bottom - there are two troughs at around 0.057 with a peak in between at 0.12. Classic double bottom!

 

[hangseng]

Interesting H/S
I note then that you have been in the position twice for a 5b and not taken it.
(You evidently have an average of around 3c----although you added at 11c and 13c--
your average will be increased).
So 30c to 40c is your 10b target.
Not impossible PROVIDED demand for "U" is increased and price rises as a consequence.
Its as clear as day that that is the driving influence on PEN price not the other spin---errrrr ----associated production announcements

I agree there has been both atrocious and questionable T/A presented up---but also some worthy of consideration.

I still think a T/A could trade this with less risk,better allocation of capital and are more likely to return 10b on capital invested by TRADING it.

This may surprise you tech, but generally no argument from me there.

I have often stated there is a place for both TA and FA, used effectively together is literally the perfect methodology, if in fact there is one IMO. I do use TA, although not to the high level you and some others I watch do. You, like me are never always right so the balance is worthy of all to consider.

If I had the time to watch PEN's every move, and regarded my day trading ability high enough (of which I don't as yet) I believe I would have at least half of my current holdings in PEN as trading stock.

However I don't so I go with the next best things I have available to me, time and knowledge. I have bought PEN consistently now on dips since Fukushima, not perfect bottoms but close enough for me. I have used charting to assess these moves, with my buy at 6.1 being my best yet in both quantity and price, my worst at 8.3 on the 28/4 however that was low quantity so no harm done and I still hold.

I am using TA to buy at the moment not to sell. My time to exit PEN will be mostly based on what I believe to be the peak of the speculative runup to Karoo. As with my buying it is unlikely I will pick the top and not my intention. My intention is to fill my bank account with what I am satisfied with at a particular point in time.

I actually don't completely disagree with Chalea in that stocks rarely run high post production, unless there is something significant to followup.

With hindsight (isn't it a wonderful thing), I would have been better off selling at 15.5 and sitting back and buying more at sub 6c and then sell on the rise that occurred etc etc etc. However I don't have a crystal ball and nor did I have the time nor capability to watch PEN's every move during that time.

I do know of one person that did sell at 15 and bought back at 6c and he is regarded now as the guru of my little group of offline friends. In fact I should throw out all the rule books and just follow what he does, as his record is now looking pretty damn good.

But with me I am merely a simple learned soul, so I rely on what I actually know and what I believe will occur. My holdings in PEN are well in profit now and I believe will go much higher as I have stated before.

If PEN isn't looking like doing what I believe it will or falters in the next 12 months, be sure that I will move on regardless based on fundamentals of both PEN and the industry. Asd you rightly point out there will need to be an appreciation, or at least a holding of the current uranium price for me to achieve my end goal.

I am not "in love" with this stock, I am excited with what it has the potential to do.

 

[Chalea]

Tech/a is spot on about the double bottom - there are two troughs at around 0.057 with a peak in between at 0.12. Classic double bottom!

"Classic double bottom!"

If, and only if, the SP breaks 12c

 

[skyQuake]

"Classic double bottom!"

If, and only if, the SP breaks 12c

Do you actually trade or use TA to predict where stocks go?
Genuine question.

 

[tech/a]

Yep as I thought.

Practical application and theory ---vastly different---as you may one day learn if you ever actually trade.
Buy the way Im happy to call it test of support and an un proven Double Bottom if it makes you feel better.

You have some interesting views some of value and others of less value.
PEN hardly requires comment as its in a corrective pattern which is likely to last for sometime.Without a supportive "U" price and demand it will stay languishing between 6 and 10c regardless of announcements.
A fall in demand and price in "U" will see previous lows re visited---in the 2's.

You seem to attack anyone with a view and place yourself as expert with nothing more than cut and paste information, I'm beginning to see where the others are coming from with regard to your forum persona.

H/S
Doesn't surprise me.
Ive come to understand your position and respect it---even applaud it.
Anyway until anything changes substantially on a technical stand point I see no need to keep posting---so will speak again when and if things alter technically to the positive or negative.

Enjoy your trading to those who trade and keep on reading to those who are saving enough to get started.

 

[Chalea]

"Buy(sic) the way Im happy to call it test of support and an un proven Double Bottom if it makes you feel better."

I posted my bull/bear targets days ago.

I'd feel better if you didn't call it anything actually...well, maybe a mid crash consolidation...

 

[Joe Blow]

This thread has gone off on a tangent again! Not only that but it is becoming increasingly personal in tone, which only serves to lessen its usefulness and clutter up the thread with irrelevant, off-topic posts. I have gone ahead and deleted all posts made today that do not directly concern themselves with PEN.

On the matter of motivation for posting, my view is that it is largely irrelevant as long as the information is relevant and the analysis posted has had some thought go into it. Judge a person's post by the quality of the analysis or the usefulness of the information they have posted, not whether or not they hold the stock. Some may have good reasons to be long on PEN, others may have good reason not to hold. In the end, it doesn't really matter. What does matter the quality of the content that is posted.

What I will not tolerate is overly aggressive posting styles, taking pot shots at or deliberately provoking other thread participants, no/low content or off topic posts, or posts where assertions are made (and that includes price targets) but no explanation or reasons are offered up in support. If you make an assertion, please be prepared to back it up or be prepared to cop an infraction.

Please note that this post is not intended to generate further discussion on these issues, it is an attempt (once again!) to get this thread back on track. It has become apparent to me that it is finally time for zero tolerance because the only other alternative is to shut the thread down, and that would be unfair to those who wish to discuss PEN in a civil and constructive way. There will be no more warnings, only infractions and account suspensions, so I urge everyone to please heed my words.

Now, for the final time, lets get back to discussing PEN.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Spot on!

PEN is already noted, based on the PFS metrics, as being close to the lowest opex and capex of all the U hopefuls. Also PEN will almost certainly now be the next producer, some may not even get there.

Without question there are currently more advanced companies in terms of jorc resources, EXT notably along with others such as BMN in Namibia. Australian explorers once the favoured stocks are now toxic due to labor and the greens.

PEN will be producing and cashing up ready to commence one of potentially the best uranium mines in the world, IMO Karoo will definitely be just that.

Whilst others just keep on adding to resource and go nowhere, PEN will be a cash cow.

It offers excellent upside for low cost entry. If the naysayers of uranium are proved correct and the price goes down, then PEN will survive with others placed on hold and others simply fade away. Only LOW COST producers will survive.

The irony of that scenario is that the U price will be forced up due to lack of sufficient supply for existing energy producers, let alone the many new ones coming online. The others will then seek to proceed to mining whilst PEN takes the ake and the cream of a spike in the U price until supply meets demand.

PEN gg is simply a winner no matter what the U price is, others need it to be higher. If it goes higher a forecast, then PEN wins regardless.

You could buy EXT or PDN and maybe have a 2-3 bagger in the next 3-4 years. Or you could buy PEN and potentially have a 3-4 bagger in the next 1-2 years. Or do what I am planning and have a 10 bagger within the next 2-3 years.

But who knows where the industry is going. It may push PEN much higher than anticipated, or it may send PEN and all others companies to the wall. The latter needing the nuclear power industry to cease to exist. Which do you think is more likely? My money literally is on the former.

By the way gg did you have a look at that "tip"? Nice little run today

Thanks for that Hangseng. For a fundamentalist you are good, diligent and a believer.

Tech/a's uranium chart looms large for me. If this little monkey rises sharply I'm out, I lacked a uranium stock prior to meeting you on ASF, and am comfortable atm.

Thanks.

As for the other matter, low volume and big gaps do not for a runner make, although I've not looked this evening.

So Hangseng, To PEN, I went to another PEN forum tonight, they are missing you, but seem a grab bag of poor spellers, illiterates, ninkumpooks and losers punctuated by a few people of worth. Stay with ASF and contribute.

gg

 

[hangseng]

QUOTE gg: Stay with ASF and contribute.

I fully intend to gg, as I have done for a few years here now.

Thanks for the kind words, you never know one day I may turn to the "dark side".

I do respect the TA work done here and there are a few good ones over the road as well. I tried a few years ago to do day trading and weren't particularly good at it as I had no understanding of TA. I have the occasional win now but quite simply don't have the time to keep watch constantly as needed IMO.

I may consult the residents here to try my hand again. IVR is one that has caught my eye and may just have a practice on that

In regard PEN, as I said to Tech I agree the U price needs to stabilise at least, or increase. PEN can still be profitable at an even lower U price whereas others simply can't and would be placed on hold indefinitely. That said it wouldn't do much to help my intended cause here as indicated, and I would probably call it a day and pull up stumps.

I just don't believe the latter will occur, not in my time frame. Time will tell if me and the many I take notice of that know the industry intimately and far better than me are wrong or right. I am close to fully loaded now though so I will be looking at other plays.

One thing is for certain, I knew investing in a uranium stock was never going to be popular, as it wasn't when I held EXT. That has proved correct, I was bagged when in EXT with the forum trolls stating EXT was only a "dog stock" going nowhere, and I am now bagged with PEN. Nobody ever said success was easy or popular, probably why most choose easier paths and follow rather than lead.

I wish you good trading and good health...so stop smoking cigars

 

[Chalea]

Had you noticed the similarities in the chart to the 2007 crash?

How about the bearish rising wedge?

Time for a closer look at the bearish rising wedge.

PEN is approaching the optimal break-out area of the pattern, (50-75%).

7.6c looks to be tomorrow's support level...

 

[hangseng]

I would be interested in TA views of these comments from IC Charts, based on chaleas rising wedge theory put up. You may very well be on the money it seems chalea providing certain rules are met, of which they currently aren't it seems.

On the 13/4/11 7.4c was displayed as strong support on rising volume that continued to the 28/4 where the sp collapsed again. So I believe 7.4c is the support level not 7.6c, just now is displaying also why I believe this with 7.4 support holding and 7.5 coming back quite well. Once again the PALA buy price of 7.5c. I have tried to post up a chart but my internet is incredibly bad here today so no go.

The chart is displaying a series of "higher highs and higher lows" since the 16/6, the beginning of the "rising wedge" being displayed. This is a bullish pattern and is not bearish until support is "convincingly broken", of which it hasn't been as yet.

Several rules of the bearish rising wedge formation have semingly been met, one being low volume. However not all rules have been met.

I am but a rank amateur at this, however it is of interest and I would be interested in all views of those with a better understanding. Maybe I am slowly turning to the "dark side" lol, but my question is genuine as I believe this could be a watershed moment for PEN.

From IC charts:

"Bull TrendsA bull trend is identified by a series of rallies where each rally exceeds the highest point of the previous rally. The decline between rallies ends above the lowest point of the previous decline. A series of successive higher highs and higher lows.

Some purists argue that a trend ends if the sequence of higher highs and higher lows is broken. Others argue that a bear trend has not started until there is a lower High and Low nor has a bull trend started until there is a higher Low and High.

For practical purposes, only accept large corrections as trend changes in the primary trend.

A bull trend starts when price rallies above the previous high;
A bull trend ends when price declines below the previous low;
A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend (and vice versa)."

Source: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/dow_theory_trends.php

 

[Chalea]

So I believe 7.4c is the support level not 7.6c...

Last night's 7.6c call came from the point on the wedge that would intersect with today's candlestick.

IMO today's price action saw support broken.

Check the RSI trend line break for conformation.

If the RSI has closed below 50 it's further conformation of the bear move down.

Note the underlined sentences.

The green chart lines give an approximate SP target of 5c, (for this pattern).

If it cracks 6.0c then my weekly chart target comes into play.

 

[flyboy77]

FA will always wallop TA for an emerging story like PEN.

All that guff about TA on the U price chart is simply bunk.

Anyone with even a basic appreciation of the uranium market knows that the spot price (as depicted in that chart) is essentially irrelevant when it comes to the price that uranium producers (hopefully PEN in 2012) agree contractually with end users i.e. utilities and the like.

Last time I check 80-90% of uranium mined is sold this way (and even the contractual agreements vary significantly wrt price, delivery, CPI adjustments, floor and ceiling prices etc).

The uranium market price setting mechanisms are very opaque. Individual contract prices can and DO vary significantly from the so called (quoted) long term contract price which hovers just south of 70/lb last time I checked.

So, in conclusion, any one making investment decisions based on the chart of the spot price is making one big error.

 

[hangseng]

Spot on Flyboy.

However I will now be the first to admit that today PEN broke support convincingly. Short term TA wise PEN (along with the rest of the market) is a bit crook. It may take the now "Pre-NR" announcement to turn PEN around. If it doesn't then we may be in for more of a beating.

I am still of the opinion fundamentally this is a very sound company heading into near production. However one can't deny today was the "watershed" I wasn't looking for. I am not going to pee in anyones pocket and say otherwise.

Licking my wounds....:-(

I tip my hat to the TA people here today....

The only positive is I have cash waiting and will again buy if this beating does eventuate.

Nothing new I can see in the ann apart from this in regard to what Nucore will pay.

$15m Share Placement and Strategic Alliance
On 23 June 2011 Peninsula announced that it had executed a Term Sheet with NuCore Energy LLC, a North American company focused on the commercial nuclear fuels market and services sector, for a $15,000,000 share placement.

The Placement is priced at a 50% premium to the 10 day volume weighted average price (VWAP) (with a floor price of $0.075 and a cap of $0.095) in the period immediately following publication of the results of the Company’s Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) at the Lance Projects in Wyoming"

So right now PEN is trading at below what the Nucore base VWAP will be. So the minimum Nucore will pay is 11.25c per PEN share and maximum of 14.25c.

Yet PEN trades now at 7.2c ......sigh