PEN - Peninsula Energy

[hangseng]

In terms of loss of life it seems coal already is by far Mick.

Fossil fuels are far deadlier than nuclear power

"There is no question," says Joseph Romm, an energy expert at the Center for American Progress in Washington DC. "Nothing is worse than fossil fuels for killing people."

http://www.newscientist.com/article...uels-are-far-deadlier-than-nuclear-power.html

and this....

http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html




And yet we have a massive over reaction to a nuclear plant incident that wasn't responsible for all the earthquake/tsunami related deaths in Japan...

Put in a Google search "china coal mine explosion" and see how many people have been killed in China alone from Coal mine incidents. Do they stop buying coal and building coal plants and the bottom drop ouit of shares???? No, and we don't see media reporting coal related fataities, like has just occurred at Fukishima go figure.

We see headlines like this daily:


http://oneplusonedirect.com/power-i...ima-nuclear-unit-as-death-count-rises/852804/

It is good news about the power plant restoration but lets throw in a rise in fatalities (totally unrelated to the power plant) in the same sentence as it will be a far more spectacular headline. Tripe reportintg IMO.

Scaremongering abounds and continues, however reality will eventually hit home and nuclear energy will rebound.

Risk expert: Why radiation fears are often exaggerated

Fear of radiation from Japan's stricken nuclear power plant must not blind us to the risks attached to the alternatives, says David Spiegelhalter

What is it about nuclear energy that makes people particularly fearful?
There has been a lot of research on this. Nuclear radiation ticks all the boxes for increasing the fear factor. It is invisible, an unknowable quantity. People don't feel in control of it, and they don't understand it. They feel it is imposed upon them and that it is unnatural. It has the dread quality of causing cancer and birth defects.

Nuclear power has been staggeringly safe, but that doesn't stop people being anxious about it, just as airplanes and trains are an amazingly safe way to travel but people still worry far more about plane crashes than car crashes.
source: http://www.newscientist.com/article...hy-radiation-fears-are-often-exaggerated.html

And Malcolm Fraser (and the ABC for that matter) is an expert in what in regards the field of Nuclear Energy?

The ABC is on record as posturing over nuclear power and John Borshoff was one of the best in response to the drivel that the ABC reporters are coming out with. They were "raised on the Simpsons".

 

[hangseng]

So on the release of such a key announcement the sp will half?

TA is fine, however it flies in the face of reality suggesting such a thing is about to occur.

You suggested the same that PEN was going to 2.5c in 2010 when clearly the opposite was going to occur and in fact did going on to 15.5c...not your 2.5c call.

Post Fukushima PEN hit 5.6c on nothing more than panic selling and blind fear. Driven aong by shorting. On the 16/6/2011 a second test of support occurred at 5.9c. So even post Fukushima lows couldn't be reached. And yet we are to take seriously PEN is going to 3.5c on highly subjective and as some here knowledgeable and respected in TA have suggested, erroneous TA.

Ignoring fundamentals will prove a costly mistake for many IMO if they rely only subjective chart analysis.

Your feeble attempt at scaremongering (again from ABC reports) has been tried by many here and elsewhere. It can and will be countered by far more intelligible information by experts in their field of expertise.

Your generalisation on being a concern by many is your personal view. I am a very large shareholder and have no such concerns, as don't the many I chat to offline, one a top 20 holder.

Stick to facts and this can be a great forum for sharing and not deterorate into what another forum has become, a total farce. Your purposeful, negative agenda targetting PEN and PEN only was obvious from your first post here.

Keep it civil and I assure you I will as well. Post as you did on HC and started to do here already I for one will counter all you put up. Just keep it real.

 

[Chalea]

So on the release of such a key announcement the sp will half?

TA is fine, however it flies in the face of reality suggesting such a thing is about to occur.

You suggested the same that PEN was going to 2.5c in 2010 when clearly the opposite was going to occur and in fact did going on to 15.5c...not your 2.5c call.

Post Fukushima PEN hit 5.6c on nothing more than panic selling and blind fear. Driven aong by shorting. On the 16/6/2011 a second test of support occurred at 5.9c. So even post Fukushima lows couldn't be reached. And yet we are to take seriously PEN is going to 3.5c on highly subjective and as some here knowledgeable and respected in TA have suggested, erroneous TA.

Ignoring fundamentals will prove a costly mistake for many IMO if they rely only subjective chart analysis.

Your feeble attempt at scaremongering (again from ABC reports) has been tried by many here and elsewhere. It can and will be countered by far more intelligible information by experts in their field of expertise.

Your generalisation on being a concern by many is your personal view. I am a very large shareholder and have no such concerns, as don't the many I chat to offline, one a top 20 holder.

Stick to facts and this can be a great forum for sharing and not deterorate into what another forum has become, a total farce. Your purposeful, negative agenda targetting PEN and PEN only was obvious from your first post here.

Keep it civil and I assure you I will as well. Post as you did on HC and started to do here already I for one will counter all you put up. Just keep it real.

Please don't "lecture" me.

Last year I highlighted a descending triangle formation providing both support & resistance levels.
I believed support would fail, it didn't, and you got your parabolic rally.

Believe it or not, PEN would be at this level with or without Fukushima - that's what happens after a parabola.

My view re uranium will take more than a few months to alter, if ever. Have you surveyed people who don't own uranium shares? Do they share your views?

I read the forums, the concern's not a generalisation.

Forums are for sharing opinions, not a PR offshoot of companies.

I won't apologise for my negative views, I'm just keeping it real.

Just keep it civil...

 

[hangseng]

If your view on uranium is so full of concern, why is it you only select a small cap uranium explorer to voice your concerns?

Why not BHP, Rio (ERA), PDN the producers and the multitude of other companies in exploration phase?

You have been purposeful and directed since early last year on another forum and your charting became manic to the point of ridiculous. I once respected your charting attempts and stated so, but you threw that out the window when you chose to go on a personal attack for whatever reason. One that to this day perplexes me, as it was I thet came to your support when I first saw persoinal attacks against you.

For whatever reason you have singled out PEN for your charting and now posting all manner of supposed negatives you can dig up, again only on the PEN thread.

Yes forums are for expressing views and sharing information, providing the intent is genuine and without an intent to harm or deceive.

Despite your fanciful view, I am not not a "PR offshoot" of PEN and nor have I anything to do with the company apart from owning shares. Unlike you, I base my views on PEN and the uranium industry on over 4 years of extensive research and direct mining and project construction industry involvement. My views are shared now with many industry analysts and companies involved in the industry who are purposefully advancing and with good reason, despite a 1:1000 year event.

Hartleys view is now shared by RCR Capital Research and now clearly by PALA and Nucore who have invested millions in PEN.

You don't have to like it but it is going to happen with PEN, a few other companies and the uranium industry generally, charts or no charts.

"Demand is Coming...Supply is Not"
Argonaut Research, Australian Uranium Conference July 2011.

Get used to it!

 

[Chalea]

Yes forums are for expressing views and sharing information, providing the intent is genuine and without an intent to harm or deceive.

Please, my intent was genuine last year, as I believe yours was this year when you suggested a target of =/> 20c?
Not sure about the $1.00 call a few years back though.

How do you envisage meaningful SP appreciation when the uranium chart, (supply/demand), looks like this?

 

[Purd2]

Just a reminder that I will continue to remove:

• No/Low content posts
• Off topic posts
• Posts intended solely to provoke others
• Posts that contain price targets will no substantiation/reasoning/analysis provided
• Posts that contain personal attacks

Either post some relevant information, analysis or question or please refrain from posting in this thread.

I hope that was in regard to the poster phishpheet Joe! I have resisted the urge to slam him.

 

[skyQuake]

Please don't "lecture" me.

Last year I highlighted a descending triangle formation providing both support & resistance levels.
I believed support would fail, it didn't, and you got your parabolic rally.

Hope you bought in then.

Believe it or not, PEN would be at this level with or without Fukushima - that's what happens after a parabola.

If you look at everything on a linear chart then all runners will look like parabolic rallies.
How about AUT? Parabolic rally too? BHP on a monthly chart? Google?

Here's PEN's run on a log chart. Nice channel actually.

 

[Joe Blow]

I hope that was in regard to the poster phishpheet Joe! I have resisted the urge to slam him.

I'd prefer not to name names, but I was motivated to make the post after removing two unacceptable posts. It was more of a general reminder to everyone as the PEN thread seems to be a neverending source of trouble.

As for slamming people, please don't. It will only result in a retaliatory slam which will only end up in a brawl that I will have to break up. Please refer only to the content of others posts, rather than the posters themselves.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Hangseng, can you tell me why ASF members should invest in PEN and not other Uranium explorers, producers.

The sp seems to follow the U price for many of them.

gg

 

[Chalea]

How do you envisage meaningful SP appreciation when the uranium chart, (supply/demand), looks like this?

As the weekly price indicator has fallen US$1.50 to US$51.75/lb, what will be the ramifications on PEN's SP if the $50 support level should fail? Can't be positive.

It's not uncommon for investors to come into a stock & yet the SP falls...

IMO

 

[barney]

Here's PEN's run on a log chart. Nice channel actually.
View attachment 43749

Nice indeed It was an aggressive channel which often happens when the traders are on the job for an extended period.

If we assume that PEN is the real deal, then perhaps after the traders have milked it, the Investors might create a slightly more conservative channel (below)

If the SP holds post DFS and Nucor are happy to pay a premium to be involved as Hang has mentioned, the SP could do anything .....

On the flipside, if I was about to invest a few $million dependent on a specific time range already agreed on, I would be happy to see the SP drop so I wasn't penalised too much for getting involved

I guess it depends on whether the big players have swung a "short term" deal .... but I will definitely have a couple of trawlers sitting in the queue just in case we get a short term down spike ..... certainly getting to an interesting stage.

 

[barney]

Hangseng, can you tell me why ASF members should invest in PEN and not other Uranium explorers, producers.

gg

Funnily enough GG, I think Chalea's apparent negativety actually answers your question

As the weekly price indicator has fallen US$1.50 to US$51.75/lb, what will be the ramifications on PEN's SP if the $50 support level should fail?

If we take into account that a falling U price will put pressure on the "marginal" future producers ... it would be reasonable to expect that those companies that can "survive" in the short term will be far better placed in the medium/longer term ...... Supply and Demand eventually become balanced.

If PEN get their Permit to Mine, they enter into a different league altogether as far as Uranium is concerned. If players like Pala and Nucorp etc etc are happy to take positions with our little aussie minnow, I'm happy to respect that their due diligence at the "coal front" is a bit more informed than mine

 

[tech/a]

Please, my intent was genuine last year, as I believe yours was this year when you suggested a target of =/> 20c?
Not sure about the $1.00 call a few years back though.

How do you envisage meaningful SP appreciation when the uranium chart, (supply/demand), looks like this?

Forget the copious announcements offered up for reasons PEN or any other U stock
Performs

Take a look at the chart
That's all you need to watch!

 

[hangseng]

Funnily enough GG, I think Chalea's apparent negativety actually answers your question



If we take into account that a falling U price will put pressure on the "marginal" future producers ... it would be reasonable to expect that those companies that can "survive" in the short term will be far better placed in the medium/longer term ...... Supply and Demand eventually become balanced.

If PEN get their Permit to Mine, they enter into a different league altogether as far as Uranium is concerned. If players like Pala and Nucorp etc etc are happy to take positions with our little aussie minnow, I'm happy to respect that their due diligence at the "coal front" is a bit more informed than mine

Spot on!

PEN is already noted, based on the PFS metrics, as being close to the lowest opex and capex of all the U hopefuls. Also PEN will almost certainly now be the next producer, some may not even get there.

Without question there are currently more advanced companies in terms of jorc resources, EXT notably along with others such as BMN in Namibia. Australian explorers once the favoured stocks are now toxic due to labor and the greens.

PEN will be producing and cashing up ready to commence one of potentially the best uranium mines in the world, IMO Karoo will definitely be just that.

Whilst others just keep on adding to resource and go nowhere, PEN will be a cash cow.

It offers excellent upside for low cost entry. If the naysayers of uranium are proved correct and the price goes down, then PEN will survive with others placed on hold and others simply fade away. Only LOW COST producers will survive.

The irony of that scenario is that the U price will be forced up due to lack of sufficient supply for existing energy producers, let alone the many new ones coming online. The others will then seek to proceed to mining whilst PEN takes the ake and the cream of a spike in the U price until supply meets demand.

PEN gg is simply a winner no matter what the U price is, others need it to be higher. If it goes higher a forecast, then PEN wins regardless.

You could buy EXT or PDN and maybe have a 2-3 bagger in the next 3-4 years. Or you could buy PEN and potentially have a 3-4 bagger in the next 1-2 years. Or do what I am planning and have a 10 bagger within the next 2-3 years.

But who knows where the industry is going. It may push PEN much higher than anticipated, or it may send PEN and all others companies to the wall. The latter needing the nuclear power industry to cease to exist. Which do you think is more likely? My money literally is on the former.

By the way gg did you have a look at that "tip"? Nice little run today

 

[Ubershrewd]

Is anyone worried about the effect of the US debt crisis on the SP of PEN? I can't help but notice that the impending DFS release is so near to their Aug 2 deadline. If Congress cannot satisfactorily solve their problem in time, will this severely dampen the effect of the DFS results (assuming they are good) on the SP in the short term?

Just stopping by with a random thought.

 

[Chalea]

Or do what I am planning and have a 10 bagger within the next 2-3 years.

Why do many see production as the Holy Grail of SP appreciation?

Production will see the exodus of speculators and SP collapse/stagnation.

Remember PDN?

 

[barney]

Why do many see production as the Holy Grail of SP appreciation?

Production will see the exodus of speculators and SP collapse/stagnation.

Remember PDN?

Speculators will obviously speculate more in the pre-production time frames due to the higher % gains possible. If the SP stagnates or collapses post production, the share was obviously over valued pre-production.

Regarding PDN, I think it was more a combination of their poor aquisition of Summit (SMM), and the failing of the market in general which created the SP to collapse.

A chart of the XAO and PDN over the same time frame ..... not unsimilar.

 

[Chalea]

Regarding PDN, I think it was more a combination of their poor aquisition of Summit (SMM), and the failing of the market in general which created the SP to collapse.

Explain FMG then. Name any company whose SP kept climbing after production started.

Explain how "Or do what I am planning and have a 10 bagger within the next 2-3 years" is anything but a ramp?



"Official ASF Policy on Ramping

As ASF has grown the amount of ramping in stock threads has increased noticably and it has become apparent to me very recently that in order to maintain standards here I needed to put together an official ASF policy on ramping. In this post I want to outline what is acceptable and what is unacceptable to post in stock threads.

If you state that a stock's share price is going to go up or down you MUST provide reasoning for your point of view. Posts that fail to provide any reasoning will be deleted without notice by myself or one of ASF's moderators. I understand that some will see this as 'heavy handed' moderation but the only alternative to this is to see standards of posting here drop to an unacceptable level and I am not willing to stand by and watch this happen.
Posts that refer to some unidentified individual (a friend, a colleague or an insider) who has told you that a stock is about to move in one direction or another will be treated the same way and removed ASAP.
Every statement you make must be able to be substantiated. For example it is not permissable to state that 'drilling results are about to be released and they will be positive' unless this statement is able to be substantiated. Posts that contain unsubstantiated statements will be removed without notice.
Stocks are not to be recommended to others as a definite "buy" or "sell". As most of you are aware only licensed financial advisors can provide financial advice and recommending stocks to others as a "buy" or "sell" is inappropriate in a forum such as this. There are many other more appropriate terms that can be used to describe your view of a company's worth in relation to its share price such as "undervalued" and "overvalued", just to name a couple.
All posts in a stock thread must contain some meaningful content. Bumping a stock thread by posting a smilie, a single word or an unrelated comment is not permitted and these posts will be removed without notice.
Posting a series of posts that contain nothing more than a running commentary on a stock's intraday price action is discouraged as a single post is enough to alert others to a stock that seeing a significant move in one direction or another. If you would like to report on intraday price movements in a particular stock, please do it in the ASF Chat Room.
The creation of threads asking others to recommend their 'hot stocks' or 'hot stock tips' is discouraged and these threads will be closed or deleted as they are primarily used for ramping.


It will only be possible to maintain high standards here at ASF with the co-operation of the entire community, that is why I am asking members to report any incidents of blatant ramping. In the top right of every post you will notice this symbol ' '. If you click on it you will be able to report that particular post and alert myself and the moderators to it. As we are unable to review every thread reporting unacceptable posts will help us a great deal in our efforts to stamp out ramping on ASF.

In summary, if you are not prepared to present a reasoned argument for your position/views on a stock then please consider not posting. I would much rather have fewer quality posts than a truckload of ramping posts. I suspect most ASF members feel the same way. For those who would prefer simply to ramp or downramp stocks, there are many other forums that will welcome you with open arms. Here at ASF we are determined to maintain a certain level of posting and continued ramping will ultimately result in the suspension of your ASF account."

 

[hangseng]

Chalea once again you display no knowledge whatsoever of PENS activities, nor what others believe based on both Lance AND Karoo as I indicated.

I will have the greatest of pleasure posting up more to attempt to dispel your complete ignorance over the fundamentals of this company and its obvious potential.

Based on BOTH Karoo and Lance PEN has a past valuation over over 70c. Not hard to find and go no further than the PEN website or here if you care to.

The main game is to have BOTH projects up and running, not just Lance. The build up to Karoo is where I belive the largest appreciation in the share price will occur.

More later as I have things to do, in the meantime do some reading on Karoo and the potential value of what has been termed an "elephant" resource. Unlike you I research companies fundamentals and base my decisions and views on that, not on cut and paste charting. TA has its place used properly, my thoughts on my targetted exit has nothing to do with charts. Thats what you will do when I have already sold, look at charts.

My hope is for a 10b return in my time frame as per a past valuation, if not then a 5b will do the trick for me.

Your "lecture" athough noted, was totally uncalled for. If I had stated this year, or even next year then I would agree with you. My time frame holds and I am patient enough to wait.

 

[Chalea]

Based on BOTH Karoo and Lance PEN has a past valuation over over 70c. Not hard to find and go no further than the PEN website or here if you care to.

The main game is to have BOTH projects up and running, not just Lance. The build up to Karoo is where I belive the largest appreciation in the share price will occur.

I wouldn't touch Karoo/South Africa with a barge pole!

Did you know that South Africa's "future leader" is a disciple of Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe and that he -

"called for the Zimbabwe-style seizure of mines and farms in South Africa"

How will that affect your 10 bagger?