PEN - Peninsula Energy

[tech/a]

Youll note that todays volume is made up of many many small trades.
130 off for this mornings 17 mill and 123 for the 12 million at lunch time.



I dont have exact course of trades so can anyone confirm sinngle buys of over 1 million shares?

 

[hangseng]

tech/a, we are getting closer to agreement than we have ever been.

"Fundamentals themselves dont drive the price the perception of investors relative to the fundamentals drive the share price."

I could not agree more with the above statement. Market phsycology is one uncanny beast and without doubt the most difficult to assess IMO. T/A and fundamental analysis are childs play compared to that aspect.

I hold I believe 8.4 is not going to occur, and I state clearly my opinion that we have today seen strong evidence of a big player prepared to pay up. over 17M shares bought at open and 14m of those from an offscreen buyer not in the bid line.

If that is a retail trader I will eat my hat, maybe even your ducks hat, of which I like and need to buy one. What will be telling is the next top 20 listing.

Basically mate I suppose what I am saying is the ongoing FA/TA chat is pointless, as we have totally different styles of which work for both of us. Not that one is better than the other, it is a personal preference.

When PEN went from 10c to the lows, I had already sold half of my shares. My buy price was way below 10c and I took some off the table at 11c, so losses I had at the lows weren't that great...that was in 2007. In 2007 I wasn't a large investor, I am now. You (wrongly) assume far too much with that line.

The GFC then afforded me an opportunity of a lifetime, and I am sure many others. Not only with PEN but many stocks far better than PEN at the time such as ABY, SDL, EHL etc. Sold off mercilessly and irrationally, on what you rightly point out being market perception. It was my fundamental analysis and contrarian view that led me into what I now have, an SMSF to behold mostly with PEN. I do wonder why the experts in the industry that manage the majority of the countries superfunds, couldn't achieve even 50% of what I have done. My old fund manager is still struggling along, I monitor them to see where i would have been compared to what i am achieving. The ATO could never argue I'm not meeting the sole purpose test of increasing the funds assets. They could use my fund as a benchmark, albeit I concede at the moderate-high risk strategy end.

So yes I am extremely happy not only with PEN, but my methods of accumulating and investing. I don't like paying excessive brokerage, so I trade as little as possible. I aslo like the tax advantages short term traders don't enjoy.

 

[boff]

This really is a good thread with both points of view

I second that. Bravo to all the participants in this discussion. You can be assured there's a significant number of us out here listening intently to all opinions presented.

 

[mattryanshares]

Youll note that todays volume is made up of many many small trades.
130 off for this mornings 17 mill and 123 for the 12 million at lunch time.

View attachment 41196

I dont have exact course of trades so can anyone confirm sinngle buys of over 1 million shares?

01:02:24 PM 0.115 1,000,000 115,000.00
01:00:51 PM 0.115 1,000,000 115,000.00
10:07:58 AM 0.110 800,000 88,000.00
10:06:52 AM 0.110 1,000,000 110,000.00
10:06:52 AM 0.110 1,000,000 110,000.00
10:06:52 AM 0.110 1,000,000 110,000.00

These were the largest single buys, i think its what you want?

 

[tech/a]

and 14m of those from an offscreen buyer not in the bid line.

If that was a cross trade then a single SELLER was found.
He didnt agree that he should hold them.

Mind you it could have been a small part opf his overall holding!

But see my point its not cut and dry this stock is exchanging scrip and NOT making new highs

WHY??

SUPPLY and plenty of it.

 

[hangseng]

WHY??

SUPPLY and plenty of it.

You said that at 11c and that was taken out convincingly, with over 17.4M shares at open.

Now we have the same occurring at 11.5, yes a lot of (not unexpected) supply, however the DEMAND is strong and convincingly coming in, and continues to. If there isn't more dropped into 11c, and today there has been hardly any, then 11.5c will go the same way as 11c did this morning.

Simply a transfer from the impatient to the patient.

 

[beav]

Hi TechA

As a technical analyst how would you identify a bubble given it refers to the price of a company and its actual value ?

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Simply a transfer from the impatient to the patient.

Could well be.
But As I sit here and glance over every now and again.
Sellers seem to be ALWAYS at 8-8.6 mill.
Its just feeding them.

 

[hangseng]

Could well be.
But As I sit here and glance over every now and again.
Sellers seem to be ALWAYS at 8-8.6 mill.
Its just feeding them.

And the buyers keep eating them...convincingly. Why pay more when the sellers are willing to feed them cheaper

Sellers now at 5.3M

 

[barney]

Barney, top of the class from me.

What an outstanding explanation.

Thanks Hang, I'm glad a man of your stature found some value in it

With regard to all the twoing and froing re the SP ..... Long termers in this stock know how the traders push it around .... Its been going on pretty much this way since 3.5 cents a few months ago.

There is supply coming through today, but a lot of that is just the smart fellas who bought the open at 11, and on-selling all (I doubt all), or part (most likely) of their purchase.

Mathematics is a wonderful thing

Buy 1 million at 11 cents ..... $110,000

Sell 900,000 at 11.5 .... $103,500

The remaining 100,000 then has an average buy price of 6.5 cents (less brokerage of course)

I call that smart accumulation, and if had a truckload of cash thats exactly what I'd be doing.

Selling/Supply isn't always what it seems

 

[tech/a]

Thanks Hang, I'm glad a man of your stature found some value in it

With regard to all the twoing and froing re the SP ..... Long termers in this stock know how the traders push it around .... Its been going on pretty much this way since 3.5 cents a few months ago.

There is supply coming through today, but a lot of that is just the smart fellas who bought the open at 11, and on-selling all (I doubt all), or part (most likely) of their purchase.

Mathematics is a wonderful thing

Buy 1 million at 11 cents ..... $110,000

Sell 900,000 at 11.5 .... $103,500

The remaining 100,000 then has an average buy price of 6.5 cents (less brokerage of course)

I call that smart accumulation, and if had a truckload of cash thats exactly what I'd be doing.

Selling/Supply isn't always what it seems

hahaha looks great until one day you drop 1c before you can get out!
Been done before and at the peril of those who dont have the cash.
I call that dumb.

Yes your right that there is churning.

beav

To your question.
Have a look at LEG
Dropped halved a 300% rise in a few days

Imagine trying the "Smart accumulation plan"
on 31/12---suicide.

To PEN
It certainly looks like accumulation
Its taking a bit to exhaust but IF it does then it will fly---for a while at least.

 

[TheAbyss]

Must be a great thing for Warwick Grigor to write up his recommendations for U308 plays and personally recommend to his readers the company he is a director of and a shareholder.

Be interesting readng if he is a seller into the run created by his own writings in the press of late.

Links below to an article in the Australian stating Grigor likes Pen and also to the last Hartleys report which lists Grigor in the directors.

Call me suspicious if you like but i have seen paid for press articles burn unsuspecting speculators before.

Having said that Pen does look ok on the surface but i will stick to the sidelines on this one.

Good luck to all

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-uranium-winners/story-e6frg9ex-1225991017887

http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--ahniushohh.pdf

 

[barney]

I call that smart accumulation, and if had a truckload of cash thats exactly what I'd be doing.

Been done before and at the peril of those who dont have the cash.

You obviously missed the bit about the truckload of cash:.

hahaha looks great until one day you drop 1c before you can get out!

Actually if you (not you personally) have the cash (and the ability to trade), its far less risky than taking a normal breakout position .....

ie. How far under your average position trade do you generally set your stop loss ..... generally a lot more than 1 cent (rhetorical question ... no need to answer!)

The professional traders are the ones making the market. ... they are not at its mercy like you and I. Obviously as retail traders we cannot move the market.

I call that dumb.

Professional traders who are accumulating can minimize risk by scaling in and out of positions ... and on selling part positions to lower their initial outlay.

If you intend to invest $X in a "Y" stock, then only investing $X/5 or $X/10 at various levels with the intention of on selling Y/2 or whatever is applicable at designated levels, you can spread the risk.

I am sure you wouldn't try and suggest that none of the 17 million shares that were bought on the open, would have been on sold at 11.5 for the rest of the .... would you

 

[beav]

Hi Abbyss,
So is it the fact the Warwick communicated his positive opinion of a company he is a director of enough for you to write that company off as an investment ??
In his latest report on the uranium sector he talks of one company being overvalued due to its mangements 'promotional' style, it would make him a bit of a hypocrite if thats what your suggesting he's up to.
Me personally - I think he judges companies on their merits.

TechA
I was referring to your link about 'bubbles' in wikipedia
your comment re. LEG doenst really give me an idea how you as a technical analyst would identify that a company was in a 'bubble' ie. over valued
I know you know you didnt answer the question though

 

[hangseng]

All the banter aside one thing is a stand out in the discussion with PEN since mid 2010.

Whilst many, as is happening again here now, have come and goneon various forums stating there concerns (some genuine, some not) over PEN. The stock has reason consistently from sub 4c to now 11.5.

Maybe time for a news flash...

Regurgitating old concerns that have been done to death and proven false time and time again serves no purpose at all. Again we have a concern over Grigors BGF reports. Anyone that has done any level of detailed reseacrh on PEN will realise actually how conservative he has been in past reports and again in the latest report.

We also had the Hartleys banter and the obvious fact Richard Simpson is Gus's brother. So thos reports are no good as well, oh and let's throw in for good measure as a throw away line Richard is probably a car salesman (or the like) without any education. What a load of crock that was.

The RCR begin reporting positively on PEN...oh hang on that's no good either as it is "paid" research of the uranium industry and peers.

Look at the company and it's REAL progress, this is no flash in the pan fly by nighter.

It is something of a rarity I accept. A junior explorer, now heading from advanced explorer to early producer. Earlier than many of the more favoured uranium companies that had little more than rock chip samples and went nowhere.


Some people really need to wake up, get a little go in them and get a life. Not the whole world is bad nor corrupt as is being implied. It borders on offensive and smacks of little more than ongoing baseless mud slinging.


News flash....PEN is once again looking outstanding, as is the daily and weekly charts.

 

[motorway]

Hi Abbyss,
So is it the fact the Warwick communicated his positive opinion of a company he is a director of enough for you to write that company off as an investment ??
In his latest report on the uranium sector he talks of one company being overvalued due to its mangements 'promotional' style, it would make him a bit of a hypocrite if thats what your suggesting he's up to.
Me personally - I think he judges companies on their merits.

TechA
I was referring to your link about 'bubbles' in wikipedia
your comment re. LEG doenst really give me an idea how you as a technical analyst would identify that a company was in a 'bubble' ie. over valued
I know you know you didnt answer the question though

Price rising faster than exponential

eg A curved line on a semi log chart

is the first half of a technical definition of a bubble move.

The second half relates to technical signs of instability..

One who has explored this in modern times
is Didier Sornette

Motorway

 

[tech/a]

Some people really need to wake up, get a little go in them and get a life. Not the whole world is bad nor corrupt as is being implied. It borders on offensive and smacks of little more than ongoing baseless mud slinging.

Are you referring to my un biased technical commentary!!

 

[barney]

Have a look at LEG
Dropped halved a 300% rise in a few days

Imagine trying the "Smart accumulation plan"
on 31/12---suicide.

Fortunately I missed this little jibe the first time round tech, so I'll only hit you with one barrel instead of two !!

As for LEG on the 31st December, the large traders obviously bought the open to push the price up (as they had done on the day before) and sold into willing buyers for anything up to around a 30% profit on the day ...... Only the retailers who were buying the spike after the 30% rise were going to get into trouble.

No offense old mate, but your jibe was way off the target, and any trader worth his salt would have made money on both the 30th and 31st on LEG.... and you know it ... I hope

ps "Smart accumulators" generally do a bit of fundamental research on stocks they intend to accumulate ...... I know ... its a dirty word:

 

[barney]

Are you referring to my un biased technical commentary!!

Lol ....see, you know you've been bad ... now you're getting paranoid

 

[hangseng]

Are you referring to my un biased technical commentary!!

Not at all mate, to the contrary, as strange as it may seem to you I enjoy our banter

Just because we don't see eye to eye, doesn't mean I don't like your T/a work here. In fact the opposite, it has been valued over time, not always correct (same with me), however valued none the less.

Not sure about the unbiassed though