PEN - Peninsula Energy

[barney]

For ever the optimists.

What if its a massive sell order at 11c???

Thats more likely the case.
Buyers are just being absorbed.
This level is becoming critical.

Think about it.
If buyers kept buying and sellers werent around then price would chase higher.
If its just getting sold into at 11c thats where it will stay.

11c needs to disappear.

What if one of the directors were selling into you guys who are buying at 11c !!!

The million dollar question tech. Is it a massive sell order at 11 cents?

Most of the savvy "short term" traders were out of this, firstly on the 7th and the 13th January ......... then the next crew on the 20th and 21st January (on the open). The fact that they jumped back in on the 31st January at 9.5 cents looks telling.

It looks like some of those "31st" traders cashed in yesterday at 10.5 cents, but today they had every opportunity to sell up if they were "nervous" about their position.

I saw "no nerves" today .... One trader "bot dropping" a "couple" of million shares !! No big deal !! ..... If that trader was serious, he could have dumped the lot at 10.5 after the open with no effect on the SP ...... What does that tell us? ....

It tells us, that that particular "trader" still holds a reasonable amount of stock, otherwise he wouldn't have cared about dumping the lot in one go ..... ie. He was taking some profit off the table.

OR ....

He could have been simply selling to his own buy orders in the queue at specific times in an attempt to pick up other sellers who might follow his lead

Personally, I see a lot of the sellers at the 11 cent region as retailers (I am a retailer, so no disrespect intended ... although I'm not a seller !!) .....

The traders were very active at the 9.5 area .... They have quickly pushed it above the "difficult" 10 cents area (where retail traders have an advantage of lower increment drops) ...... I'd expect once they have accumulated enough stock, and diminished the backlog of retail traders at 11 cents, they will pull their sell orders and push this to the next level, as they have done at several levels from 4 cents.

9.5 looks very strong, and any prolonged period under that would be a concern. I'm doubtful that will eventuate, assuming the general market remains steady. Of course, I could be totally wrong

Cheers.

 

[easylikesunday]

I take it your not a fan of PEN tech/a?

 

[tech/a]

I take it your not a fan of PEN tech/a?

Im a fan of anything which keeps moving.
Im a trader so I dont want to waste time sitting in something thats not moving.
WORSE I dont want to buy into anything that I cant see moving in my direction.

If I were Hang seng with an average entry of 3.6c Id be handling things a little differently (being a technical trader).

Id be out at 11c with a re buy (RIGHT NOW) at 12 c if all turns extremely bullish.
If it doesn't (Id be/am out now) Id be looking to bank profit and waiting for a clear re entry at a lower price.
Being a trader I like Minimum risk.

Hang seng is happy the way he's investing in PEN and if he is correct and he could well be it could be life changing if his 2 million shares (Quick calc with 150000 at 11.0c bought and averaged at 3.6c) reach $10 +

I will at sometime "possibly" join the party but not yet.

I'm just not seeing Strength.



My opinion is in the NOW.
Nothing more.

 

[mattryanshares]

So if you go back over past Hartely's reports everyone of their valuations reach target?
How many fail
How many succeed.
How many do either in which time frame.

Of course you like the report it supports your view.

Actually tech i posted this up here so people could refer to it and i'd know if it was good or bad!! Im a green horn!!

 

[tech/a]

Just to throw a little more complex analysis into the mix.
Elliott Wave indicates a pullback to 8.4c or as low as 7.2c with a continuation expected of the completion of PEN's 5 wave impulse move.
That continuation is expected to reach 13.5 to 16.5c.
(In the very simple terms explanation).
The analysis is still valid as price hasn't taken out the current high.

Corrections are normally 3 waves in the wave 4 here and the wave 4 is often a triangle so expect this to buggerise around 8.4 to 11c for a while.

Click to expand



Pretty isn't it!

 

[hangseng]

Hang seng is happy the way he's investing in PEN and if he is correct and he could well be it could be life changing if his 2 million shares

The first part is right, I am very happy in fact. The second part isn't though, on both counts. My life won't change, just my bank account, nor is the guesstimate correct. Nice try though.

 

[Megacents]

As to your other query the $50 million equity line facility with YA Global remains in place.

PEN now has over $34M in cash, still no debt and access to $150M funding should they choose to utilise it. They also have open to them alternate preferable funding such as traditional banker funding and offtake agreements. I have no idea what is going to occur, but I do know they are pursuing all options.

Thanks Hanseng for the reply.

I reckon the off take agreements will easily allow funding to be put in place. Get the loan and pay it back via the yellow cake sales, plus Va.

I suppose they did not get Holden for nothing.

 

[Megacents]

Actually tech i posted this up here so people could refer to it and i'd know if it was good or bad!! Im a green horn!!

It is good to post info of that nature mattryanshares. Hartely's make some calculations and come up with a share price. The general info about the company is what is interesting.

I wonder what today will bring?

 

[hangseng]

Well tech/a I believe we have game on...


17,357,805 taken out at open and there was only around 3M on the buy side just before open. So offscreen over 14,000,000 shares bought up to take out 11c.

I have been in PEN since 2006 and that is by far the largest single buy I have seen to date.

I do believe that is demand overtaking supply in the very best way possible. Yes I am "forever the optimist" in regard to PEN and with damn good fundamental reasons and oh so comfortable with my rather large investment in PEN.

11.5 being taken to as I type.

 

[barney]

I'd expect once they have accumulated enough stock, and diminished the backlog of retail traders at 11 cents, they will pull their sell orders and push this to the next level, as they have done at several levels from 4 cents.

Or they might just line wipe 11 cents

Those several million+ buy orders don't look like average retail traders to me! The fact that they are happy to buy into a congested market depth above 11 also indicates they are not day traders .... Big buyers + Investors = Strong Support levels.

Once they get enough backup on 11, it would not surprise to see 11.5 get line wiped as well ..... Looks good.

 

[mattryanshares]

So why did this happen?
Tech/s anaylisis was good and supported by the tube video? The fundamentals haven't changed? No new announcements? The Hartley report came out after close yesterday andwasnt even market market sensitive? Or did it raise the profile or awareness level to get new traders to research last night and buy in this morning??
Any ideas though I'm very happy I was hoping to get some more below the 9 cent mark!!

 

[tech/a]

Hmmmm

Wouldnt be so sure.
Buyers absorbed 11c
but havent gone on with it.
There are NO NEW highs.

However if this absobtion continues and this
clearing of 11c certainly indicates that sellers
are being absorbed----then Hang Seng will be
celebrating for at least a week!

Lets see if we have a strong or weak close.
Early morning auctions need to hold the day!

 

[hangseng]

So why did this happen?
Tech/s anaylisis was good and supported by the tube video? The fundamentals haven't changed? No new announcements? The Hartley report came out after close yesterday andwasnt even market market sensitive? Or did it raise the profile or awareness level to get new traders to research last night and buy in this morning??
Any ideas though I'm very happy I was hoping to get some more below the 9 cent mark!!

Yes the T/A was good, no doubt at all, it was just wrong IMO. Why I have stated, it ignores fundamental reasoning.

Matt T/A is the driver of a share price, it merely analyses what "could be".

The announcement on the 24th was outstanding, also the Karoo drilling commenced the same day, the fact the world didn't light up on that day means nothing. We have had a BOT on PEN ever since and we have all asked why. We just found out why this morning IMO.

DFS is not that far away, the latest drill results aren't included in the Jorc resource update, neither is the vanadium metallurgical testing.

PEN has 33M/lbs of uranium from Lance alone and that is only 10% of the leases they hold, do the maths mate. Also the latest results coming out have been outside the historical resource area, that is never before explored. PEN has proven the new lease areas are an extension of the know historical resource. Mate this one paragraph alone demonstrates the massive upside potential of Lance. All reported by PEN.

Matt I could go on why what happened this morning, but someone wanted to buy a large number of shares and they did. Go back over the last couple of weeks and you will see other large single buys, not as big as this but big none the less. They won't be the last.

IMO we will see all up to 13.5 taken out in a similar fashion, with a delay at each level as has been occurring. This allows them to soak up the last of the impatient holders and any others for whatever reason. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the BOT back again today, chipping away at 11.5.

The chart will follow...

 

[mattryanshares]

Yes the T/A was good, no doubt at all, it was just wrong IMO. Why I have stated, it ignores fundamental reasoning.

Matt T/A is the driver of a share price, it merely analyses what "could be".Agee mate but apparently its still saying it could drop so not a reson to buy today att 11.5?????

The announcement on the 24th was outstanding, also the Karoo drilling commenced the same day, the fact the world didn't light up on that day means nothing. We have had a BOT on PEN ever since and we have all asked why. We just found out why this morning IMO.Whats a bot???Bottom of share price???

DFS is not that far away, the latest drill results aren't included in the Jorc resource update, neither is the vanadium metallurgical testing.

PEN has 33M/lbs of uranium from Lance alone and that is only 10% of the leases they hold, do the maths mate. Also the latest results coming out have been outside the historical resource area, that is never before explored. PEN has proven the new lease areas are an extension of the know historical resource. Mate this one paragraph alone demonstrates the massive upside potential of Lance. All reported by PEN.This has been out for a while, or is there always a lag from an announcement til the share price catches up???

Matt I could go on why what happened this morning, but someone wanted to buy a large number of shares and they did. Go back over the last couple of weeks and you will see other large single buys, not as big as this but big none the less. They won't be the last.

IMO we will see all up to 13.5 taken out in a similar fashion, with a delay at each level as has been occurring. This allows them to soak up the last of the impatient holders and any others for whatever reason. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the BOT back again today, chipping away at 11.5.

The chart will follow...

Cheers hang sang

Im taking all this in and i want to try to understand why things happen so i will be able to use this in the future on different shares at different time.
I just find it hard to believe that all these 11.5 cent buyers today didnt buy over the last few days at a cheaper price? If they were fundamental investors surely they would of?

if they were technichal investors than why buy in today?? Tech says its still not showing thats its going to break 11.5??

So for some other reason they decided today to buy in??? A couple of single players buying 1000000 shares at 11.5? Were they just waiting and hoping it would drop and it didnt or did something else trigger there need to buy now attitude??
The fundamentals were all there and never changed and the tech says you should be able to buy it cheaper in a day or so???
Its great for me, im stoked im a holder in this share not only because ive made a little money but because the info on this thread gives anaylisis both tech and fundamental that i can check and learn from.
Thanks to all who posted!!!

 

[tech/a]

Yes the T/A was good, no doubt at all, it was just wrong IMO. Why I have stated, it ignores fundamental reasoning.

Its ignoring nothing.
Its SHOWING EXACTLY whats happening NOW.
It doesnt predict.(Well my for of T/A doesnt).
It can pretty clearly INDICATE the next 3-5 periods.
Elliott can also indicate how the current chart structure could pan out.
If your a trader having an "indication" of where your going is a good thing to have.
So Far its done that pretty well.
Ive also presented a balanced view

Matt T/A is the driver of a share price, it merely analyses what "could be".[/quote'

Your right its not ------but the perception of participants in the issue.
That perception will drive price which will be reflected in the chart.

This warrble on and on infititum about Fundamentally inherent analysis being the sole driver has me asking this question

"Why have you ridden this stock from 10c down to around 2c??"

If Fundamentals are THAT good how is it that your perception varied SO much from others as it fell!!??

As for PEN its still in a range and dealing with Supply and demand
Until that pans out Ill WATCH.
If Its going to $10 I have time!!

 

[hangseng]

You may also ask but don't, why I bought the majority of my holding sub 4c. Why did I by at 1.8? Why did I continue to buy?

Because of what is happening now and what will continue to happen. Of which I believed would happen due to fundamentals, not T/A.

Your right T/A is great for traders and I am right in thast it aids investors as i indicated previously. Great that your a trader, however your call of 8.4 is flawed.

 

[barney]

I just find it hard to believe that all these 11.5 cent buyers today didnt buy over the last few days at a cheaper price? If they were fundamental investors surely they would of?

if they were technichal investors than why buy in today?? Tech says its still not showing thats its going to break 11.5??

Hi Mat, I gave a layman's "simplistic" description of the last few days price action in post 761. It may make more sense today if you have another read.

There are all sorts of reasons why people buy and sell, and they may all have a slightly different agenda at any given time.

PEN is shaping up as one of those rare "perfect storm" stocks. Its forward looking fundamentals (future potential value) are excellent, and it is a very liquid stock .... therefore it is attracting the attention of both traders and investors simultaneously.

The large Traders set the "short term" price levels, and the Investors set the longer term support/resistance levels. ie The traders buy and sell at any productive level, but the Investors are generally only buying/holding.

Traders don't generally care whether the stock is trading at 8 cents or 11 cents ... just as long as they are using momentum in their favour eg.tech/a

Investors who see long term value in the stock eg Hang Seng, will continue to buy at any level that they still perceive value.

Why did todays price/volume jump? Yesterday there was a wall of sellers at 11 cents. Any larger holders who wanted out had to drop a level to 10.5 .... There was ample market depth for any sellers to sell into at that level if they wanted to, but only one seller of any volume wanted out and he was finished way before the close.

It was the lack of selling which was the key to todays rise. The traders simply "took out" the 11 cent level because there was no point waiting any longer. Maybe a lot of those 11 cent buyers this morning have cashed out ..... nobody knows ... but there is now a lot of buyers locked in at 11.5 cents as well.

If some of the large 11.5 sell orders in the queue are "furphies", then there is every chance that we will see 12 cents before the close .... If the sells are real, then maybe there will be a bit more supply to get through .... either way, the price action has been positive.

Hope that made some sense

 

[hangseng]

Barney, top of the class from me.

What an outstanding explanation.

 

[tech/a]

Great that your a trader, however your call of 8.4 is flawed.

Not yet its not.If the high is taken out then the analysis needs to be re assessed.
I suppose also the possibility of 13.5c and 17.5c as per analysis is also "Flawed?"


I just happened to be watching depth and noticed buyers take out ALL 11.5c
It then read 62,000 Buyers at 11.5c and 62 million sellers at 12c

Then almost instantly in came 5 and 3 odd million at 11.5c to sell.
Now 10 mill buy at 11c and 8.1 mill sell at 11.5c.Strangley this figure now remains at about that 8.1-8.5 mill after each sale.!!

So Im seeing selling INTO buyers.

You may also ask but don't, why I bought the majority of my holding sub 4c. Why did I by at 1.8? Why did I continue to buy?

Because of what is happening now and what will continue to happen. Of which I believed would happen due to fundamentals, not T/A.

No I ask why you didnt sell at 10c and watch profit dissolve.

Fundamentals themselves dont drive the price the perception of investors relative to the fundamentals drive the share price.
Why isnt it $5 now? Because its not producing and a lot could happen between now and then.
Its not making a profit and perception CAN change.

Why do stocks fall when massive profits are recorded??---Perception.
Charts record perception if you KNOW HOW to read them.

Perception changes and so too does chart analysis!

Ofcourse if tech analysis says buy I'll be buying.
I wont be caring about Fundamentals either only the perception reflected in price.

Each to their own.
I hope this turns into a Poseidon for you and for me too!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poseidon_bubble

12.30 to $328 a share!!

This also supports my thinking on the Phsychology of trading pennies.
Particularly mining stocks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_bubble
Worth the read.

 

[J&M]

This really is a good thread with both points of view
I really like to read Tech/a summery of this stock
and HS reasons why he thinks this stock will increase in value even though they are not as yet producing anything and making a $$$ or 2


I do have a small holding

Cheers
James