Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

PEN - Peninsula Energy

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I saw it, see it and I am anything but inflexible.

However I am not concerned one bit and I still don't believe I will require that pie. Even if i did it would be literally a golden opportunity. One I dare say they would vanish in a blink.

Good charting tech/a, as I said I do respect your work. I just don't happen to agree with it at the moment as it completely ignores all fundamental reasoning. I agree,
"I dont think it wise to be in flexible [sic] with any form of analysis"

Mate this isn't a who is right or wrong contest I can assure you. However I am firmly of the personal opinion that strong positive fundamentals will drive this stock, and has done to date. Your T/A I am sure is of value to traders in PEN at the moment, however it makes no difference to my strong fundamental view of where PEN is headed. My view is unwavering despite what a chart may indicate, the chart won't drive the sp of the future that I am looking at.

I do see a use for charts at the moment on another stock though. If I think I am right I will post accordingly on that stock. A I said I use T/A for entry into oversold fundamentally sound stocks, I think I may have stumbled across an old oily unloved friend. Perfect for the contrarian in me...
 
When is there production?
How long before they turn a profit?

Does this concern you?
 
tech/a said:
When is there production?
How long before they turn a profit?

Does this concern you?
Click to expand...


Not one bit tech/a.

PEN is on track for production 1st qtr 2012. All they require is the permits, all of which have been submitted now. Although they are seeking funding on better terms, they have access to enough funding to commence construction (expected to commence around July-Sept) and take them through to production and keep up the exploration work at Lance and Karoo.

With a recorded (funding/Capex) payback period of only 1.7 years with a 13 year mine life (based on last years PFS not the latest DFS about to come out) it places PEN above many of it's peers.

Concerned?....anything but!

Oh by the way buyers just overcame sellers at 10.5 with a BOT leading the buying :D
 
demand is still increasing!! :)

251 buyers for 33,350,023 units 269 sellers for 44,934,838 units

Note, im a beginner and in no way really know what im doing!!!
 
Hey Hangseng,
Warwick Grigor has a payback of capex at 1.2 years not 1.7 years ??
I know i should do the math myself but havnt got time just now.

Cheers
Beav
 
beav said:
Hey Hangseng,
Warwick Grigor has a payback of capex at 1.2 years not 1.7 years ??
I know i should do the math myself but havnt got time just now.

Cheers
Beav
Click to expand...

Hi Beav, yes my bad Warwick does state that and I have also stated from PEN reports 1.3yrs from the last PFS. As I am now officially old lol, I will put that down to I have no idea what I was thinking...Apart from to say the original scoping studying I feel certain was 1.7 but that is now outdated. A bit like me :D

Now if Warwick is actually correct it raises the question...Has he taken the 1.2 from the latest DFS, or has he to had an "old" moment?

Not a bad day in the paddock today :D

Up 10% on increased volume of 30,470,881 and closing above the open price with a BOT trading up to 11c . Nice candle now to don't you think tech/a? But that "supply" still keeps coming in...I wonder how real it actually is at 11c though???

I don't think very real at all, and it will vanish as quick as it appeared...probably around the time of DFS reporting IMO ;)
 
A little early to begin beating ones chest.
Nothing really has happened to PEN.
There is NO CLEAR indication that Supply is being over come.
There is plenty of supply (sellers).
Buyers are being absorbed at 10.5 ish.

The big question which holders "should" be asking is
Will Buying (demand) over come Supply (Selling).
Currently supply is CLEARLY with the upper hand.
SP cant rise above 10.5--11c

If buyers dry up or become disillusioned with reports but no profit
then sellers will seek lower prices to abandon ship. So buyers now
run a real risk of buying at the high.
I still see 8.4c in the not to distant future.

A clear gap through 11.5c which held--- would alter the technical view.
You may see this Hang seng.
But heaven forbid you may not!
Click to expand...

My opinion has not changed.

Price rising toward resistance on Lower volume is preferable.
You wont get high volume and small rises if sellers dry up.

You'll get either
(1) High volume and Wide range Pushing through resistance---not resisting AT resistance.
(2) Average--low volume with price advancing un hindered.
Similar to price action after 24/11/10

Im not convinced yet that this is going to power through.
I thought todays announcement would be enough to see.
(1) Sellers retreat and hold their positions
(2) Buyers swarm the market.

What I saw was supply taking up all the demand
its only at 11c because of the final auction--10.5 is where the larger majority traded all day.
 
Agree with your last sentence, it will be very interesting to see how this pans out. Absolutely agree there is significant resistance at 11, however it comes as no surprise to me and I have stated as much.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if PEN trades sideways at the current levels for a while, maybe even to around 9.5 is still possible. In fact I am hoping so, it went up quicker than I could buy. As I said elsewhere last year, I would have been happy if it remained at 4c for quite some time, I was enjoying that. Not that I don't like to see these levels, but obviously my buying capacity is reduced.

Just my view of the world, but thats what makes the market eh tech/a. If we all thought the same there would be no market.


The recent Mineweb article put out by PEN this afternoon may blow all our thinking...However it is one of the many reasons I selected PEN as investment some time ago. This was always coming in my mind, many wrongly assumed the last uranium run was a bubble that wouldn't occur again. I disagreed...

In part:

[B]Massive uranium supply/demand gap developing[/B]
URANIUMSpeakers at a London conference point to a massive supply gap developing for
uranium with mine output unable to keep up with demand from the huge number of
planned new global nuclear power projects.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 02 Feb 2011
LONDON -
Speaking at the Objective Capital
Americas' Resources Investment
Conference in London yesterday, Ian
Hiscock from market analysis group
CRU Strategies painted a very
positive picture for the global
uranium sector moving ahead.
Hiscock commented that the uranium
price, like that of a number of other
metal and mineral commodities, was
becoming very much a China story -
with that country consuming 17,000
tonnes in 2010 and with a huge
nuclear power development
programme ahead.

Source: Peninsula Energy email to shareholders 2/2/2011 from
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72103?oid=119696&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Gong Xi Fa Cai
To all my Chinese friends
Holiday for me as well tomorrow:D
 
The rams are at it again :)

Well it was a nice way to wake this morning and read the updated JORC. Been away working so missed the excitement.

In a previous post I asked if any has any info on the YA factility? Any ideas or is it a email/phone call to PEN?

Aprox 33Mlbs and that measured category is slowly growing. The Va is now 1.7Mlbs, nice interjection into the Opex factor.
 
Megacents said:
The rams are at it again :)

Well it was a nice way to wake this morning and read the updated JORC. Been away working so missed the excitement.

In a previous post I asked if any has any info on the YA factility? Any ideas or is it a email/phone call to PEN?

Aprox 33Mlbs and that measured category is slowly growing. The Va is now 1.7Mlbs, nice interjection into the Opex factor.
Click to expand...

Spot on in your last sentence Mega, what hasn't sunk in yet is that there is much more to come very soon, and thereafter.

As to your other query the $50 million equity line facility with YA Global remains in place.

PEN now has over $34M in cash, still no debt and access to $150M funding should they choose to utilise it. They also have open to them alternate preferable funding such as traditional banker funding and offtake agreements. I have no idea what is going to occur, but I do know they are pursuing all options.

Morning tech/a...what's up mate, is the marketing spoiling the chart? :D

Here is something to brighten your day though ok, someone agrees with you in part. He like me though believes the best you may see is 9.5c not 8.4. He is an avid T/A'er and doesn't do fundamentals as dorks like me do. He isn't the greatest of commentators, however much of his T/A work pans out true, not all the time but he has a great track record. Just for you, enjoy...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJLHLHqrCeY

Have a great day!

And to all my Chinese friends...

GONG XI FA CHAI!
 
No absolutely as expected nothing out of the ordinary.

PEN looks as though its setting up as a take over target.---to me.
 
tech/a said:
They have a strong Marketing team eager to keep the Masses up beat!
Works!
Click to expand...


Agree. Marketing is an important fundamental aspect that many Spec Companies overlook. PEN management are very switched on in that regard.

Their announcements are regular, concise, and accurate, and give Investors concrete calculations on the Company's future potential value. That gives the ability to make a valued judgment as to whether the investment is sound or not.

With the facts on the table, less assumptions/guesses have to be made ... unlike many Specs, where management embellish the truth simply to accommodate for the next Cap raise :rolleyes:

ps I'm not a fundamental trader, but if you're putting your cash into pre-production Specs, I'd much rather be doing that with ones where the numbers add up.

Once the numbers add up ..... pick an entry, a projected exit, and a stop loss ... simple:eek::D
 
Dont disagree.

Ive come back into this thread after a 350% rise and a stock which currently is having trouble getting rid of supply.

Its not the < $20k lots that have an effect on this stock but the $100k + holders.
If they hold then supply will dry up.
If they sell price WILL drop.

Right now we have small traders swapping holdings.
 
tech/a said:
Right now we have small traders swapping holdings.
Click to expand...

What we have now and have had is a "BOT" pyramid buying. Had it at 10.5, 10c now at 11c. But I also acknowledge in between the BOT there is clear selling of larger quantities at 10.5. Propped for selling into, or what I don't know but it does seem like that at the moment watching it real time at depth.

Quantity

1
8
40
200
1,000
5,000
25,000


2
6
33
162
811
4,057
20,283


If you think PEN will get taken over, as a few have indicated. Then you will see one hell of a battle occur. I have an offline rather clever friend here (svengali actually) that has analysed this possibility and I agree completely with his view that it won't happen. Not to say an attempt won't occur, but PEN themselves aren't setting up for a T/O of that I know for certain. PEN management, Gus in particular (as the largest individual shareholder) want to retain 100% ownership of PEN and in fact are looking at aquisitions, not the other way around.

But if a suitor comes along and tries, then watch "supply" dry up and a completely irrational shift upwards in the sp. Make no mistake PEN won't give this gem up easily, as won't a lot of large holders like me. If they want it they will be paying up.
 
Could this be it?

Investopedia explains Iceberg Order
When large participants, such as institutional investors, need to buy and sell large amounts of securities for their portfolios, they can divide their large orders into smaller parts so that the public sees only a small portion of the order at a time--just as the 'tip of the iceberg' is the only visible portion of a huge mass of ice. By hiding its large size, the iceberg order reduces the price movements caused by substantial changes in a stock's supply and demand.
source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/icebergorder.asp
 
hangseng said:
Could this be it?

Investopedia explains Iceberg Order
When large participants, such as institutional investors, need to buy and sell large amounts of securities for their portfolios, they can divide their large orders into smaller parts so that the public sees only a small portion of the order at a time--just as the 'tip of the iceberg' is the only visible portion of a huge mass of ice. By hiding its large size, the iceberg order reduces the price movements caused by substantial changes in a stock's supply and demand.
source: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/icebergorder.asp
Click to expand...

Interesting HS

can any one explain why the larger volume sales also get the share @ .105 and the smaller trades are all .110???

0.110 1 0.11
02:06:00 PM 0.110 4 0.44
02:05:34 PM 0.110 17 1.87
02:05:13 PM 0.110 88 9.68
02:04:52 PM 0.110 440 48.40
02:04:27 PM 0.110 2,200 242.00
02:04:05 PM 0.110 4,495 494.45
02:04:05 PM 0.110 6,506 715.66
02:03:53 PM 0.105 55,000 5,775.00 XT
02:03:42 PM 0.110 1 0.11
02:03:17 PM 0.110 5 0.55
02:02:53 PM 0.110 25 2.75
02:02:31 PM 0.110 126 13.86
02:02:10 PM 0.110 629 69.19
02:01:48 PM 0.110 3,146 346.06
02:01:26 PM 0.110 15,729 1,730.19
02:01:26 PM 0.105 78,647 8,257.94
 
For ever the optimists.

What if its a massive sell order at 11c???

Thats more likely the case.
Buyers are just being absorbed.
This level is becoming critical.

Think about it.
If buyers kept buying and sellers werent around then price would chase higher.
If its just getting sold into at 11c thats where it will stay.

11c needs to disappear.

What if one of the directors were selling into you guys who are buying at 11c !!!
 
So if you go back over past Hartely's reports everyone of their valuations reach target?
How many fail
How many succeed.
How many do either in which time frame.

Of course you like the report it supports your view.
 

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