Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Nice post @Miner.

In their 4C last week top line numbers are without doubt spectacular. But the problem they had last week is that their US market share (and in the key market of NJ) actually contracted. The reason their top line number remain impressive is that their margins in the US have improved, which offset the negative impact of a contraction in their market share. The other issue is that their marketing expenditure (which are very significant) continue to increase but at the same time their market share contracted. That is why we saw the big sell off last week. Despite the fact that PBH has a lot of money in the bank and no debt their 4C last week is bringing into question whether PBH can compete with the big end of town in the US (Fan Duel, Draft Kings etc). PBH has world class leadership and continues to execute on it's strategy and so IMHO last weeks 4C is definitely not a long term indication that PBH is loosing ground in the US.

PBH is without doubt a growth stock and is subject to all the issues that go with that but current price is in my opinion a good opportunity if you're looking for a longer term speculative stock.

As always, the above is just my personal opinion and DYOR.
G
Nice post @Miner.

In their 4C last week top line numbers are without doubt spectacular. But the problem they had last week is that their US market share (and in the key market of NJ) actually contracted. The reason their top line number remain impressive is that their margins in the US have improved, which offset the negative impact of a contraction in their market share. The other issue is that their marketing expenditure (which are very significant) continue to increase but at the same time their market share contracted. That is why we saw the big sell off last week. Despite the fact that PBH has a lot of money in the bank and no debt their 4C last week is bringing into question whether PBH can compete with the big end of town in the US (Fan Duel, Draft Kings etc). PBH has world class leadership and continues to execute on it's strategy and so IMHO last weeks 4C is definitely not a long term indication that PBH is loosing ground in the US.

PBH is without doubt a growth stock and is subject to all the issues that go with that but current price is in my opinion a good opportunity if you're looking for a longer term speculative stock.

As always, the above is just my personal opinion and DYOR.
Good info.
Could sales on Flemmington cup will bring some smile to holders :)
 
Commenting for the 2022 Stock Picking Competition -

I would like to start by saying, my TA skills are extremely novice, only started reading into it recently so I could have completely misinterpreted this graph, so please anyone reading take this with a grain of salt.

I am seeing a double bottom that has formed indicating to me that it has likely found its bottom unless some bad news gets dropped on to us.

I am a big believer in the development of fixed odds and what this will bring to bookies in the USA, specifically the connection that PBH already has with Betmakers, enabling them to integrate them to the New Jersey race tracks almost instantly, while I suspect that competing with DraftKings and others in the USA will be tough. I definitely believe that PBH will be able to hold a part of the market especially with the marketing they have already been doing across the U.S.

Only time will tell. A bit of a punt on this one. could **** the bed, but I do like the connections it has already with Betmakers.

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My tip for 2022

PBH – POINTSBET HOLDINGS

PointsBet is a sports betting operator and iGaming provider.

It offers innovative sports and racing betting products and services via a scalable cloud-based platform in the ANZ and US markets. While 2021 hasn’t been a good year for its shares, 2022 should be better.

The significant upside opportunity ahead in what will likely be a transformational CY22 year as it expands its North American footprint as well as ongoing M&A attractiveness to peers

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Earnings are forecast to grow by an average of 19.5% per year for the next 3 years

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

They have sufficient cash for at least 1 year of operations
 
My tip for 2022

PBH – POINTSBET HOLDINGS

PointsBet is a sports betting operator and iGaming provider.

It offers innovative sports and racing betting products and services via a scalable cloud-based platform in the ANZ and US markets. While 2021 hasn’t been a good year for its shares, 2022 should be better.

The significant upside opportunity ahead in what will likely be a transformational CY22 year as it expands its North American footprint as well as ongoing M&A attractiveness to peers

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Earnings are forecast to grow by an average of 19.5% per year for the next 3 years

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

They have sufficient cash for at least 1 year of operations
Not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years and have 1 year of cash operations. You hoping for a takeover?
 
Not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years and have 1 year of cash operations. ....hoping for a takeover?
or a deep-pocketed US options-trading billionaire buying in.

• PointsBet has welcomed a significant equity investment from SIG Sports Investments Corp., a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies. SIG is one of the largest proprietary financial trading firms in the world.
• The placement of 38,750,000 shares at A$2.43 per share, raises A$94.16 million and represents a 15% premium to the 5-day VWAP to 17 June 2022.
• SIG Sports will become PointsBet’s largest shareholder representing 12.8% of the Company’s issued capital following issuance.

• Further, PointsBet Europe Holdings Limited and Nellie Analytics Limited, a member of SIG, have entered into an agreement to scope and develop the terms for Nellie Analytics to provide sports analytics and quantitative modelling services to complement PointsBet’s existing capabilities and accelerate the technology roadmap.

Jeff Yass believes PointsBet can do for sports betting what SIG has done for options: create deep and stable two-sided markets, where PointsBet has the confidence to offer sharp pricing that encourages large gamblers to make big bets against the house.
 
or a deep-pocketed US options-trading billionaire buying in.

• PointsBet has welcomed a significant equity investment from SIG Sports Investments Corp., a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies. SIG is one of the largest proprietary financial trading firms in the world.
• The placement of 38,750,000 shares at A$2.43 per share, raises A$94.16 million and represents a 15% premium to the 5-day VWAP to 17 June 2022.
• SIG Sports will become PointsBet’s largest shareholder representing 12.8% of the Company’s issued capital following issuance.

• Further, PointsBet Europe Holdings Limited and Nellie Analytics Limited, a member of SIG, have entered into an agreement to scope and develop the terms for Nellie Analytics to provide sports analytics and quantitative modelling services to complement PointsBet’s existing capabilities and accelerate the technology roadmap.
More shares issued and more dilution for existing shareholders.
 
Good morning

PBH: Corporate bookmaker Pointsbet posts a $267m loss in FY22, down 43 per cent on the $187m loss a year earlier due to higher investment, marketing and employee costs.

Revenue increased 52 per cent to $296.4m while sports betting turnover reached $5.00bn.

Pointsbet's gross win margin – the amount received from customers who placed losing bets less the dollar amount paid those who placed winning bets – increased 0.4 points to 13.3 per cent.

In Australia the company recorded net revenue of $195.2m, growth of 30 per cent, while in the United States net revenue reached $98.7m.

Pointsbet chairman Brett Paton says the company is well placed and tips North America "will deliver the vast majority of regulated global gaming growth over the next decade".

Pointsbet says while the Covid-19 pandemic has been financially positive for the entity, "it is not practicable to estimate the potential impact, positive or negative".

No dividends were declared.

SP opened down 4.9%

rcw1 is not holding at present.
Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Good morning

PBH: Corporate bookmaker Pointsbet posts a $267m loss in FY22, down 43 per cent on the $187m loss a year earlier due to higher investment, marketing and employee costs.

Revenue increased 52 per cent to $296.4m while sports betting turnover reached $5.00bn.

Pointsbet's gross win margin – the amount received from customers who placed losing bets less the dollar amount paid those who placed winning bets – increased 0.4 points to 13.3 per cent.

In Australia the company recorded net revenue of $195.2m, growth of 30 per cent, while in the United States net revenue reached $98.7m.

Pointsbet chairman Brett Paton says the company is well placed and tips North America "will deliver the vast majority of regulated global gaming growth over the next decade".

Pointsbet says while the Covid-19 pandemic has been financially positive for the entity, "it is not practicable to estimate the potential impact, positive or negative".

No dividends were declared.

SP opened down 4.9%

rcw1 is not holding at present.
Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1

I personally don't understand how bookkeepers lose such massive amounts of money, how much their losses are impacted by spending millions on the likes of Shaq? And - I'm sure using American celebrities to comment on Australian political issues (of which they don't know squat about) to possibly obtain favour with the government of the day is not a good idea either. What next? Matt Damon going to lecture Australians on aged care?

I bet from time to time - but I have a dozen betting accounts and use whoever gives me the best odds on a specific bet. I have to admit I like Shaq but find Points bet to be the worst website of the lot (which advertise regularly) for betting on US sport (basketball/NFL)

$250 million in marketing is absolutely insane for a company which has $300 million in revenues. Whatever they spend they seem to just increase the losses. Although they have a half billion in the bank, I can't see anything turning around very quickly. Blows my mind how anyone would invest in a company like this at this price (billion market cap).

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I personally don't understand how bookkeepers lose such massive amounts of money, how much their losses are impacted by spending millions on the likes of Shaq? And - I'm sure using American celebrities to comment on Australian political issues (of which they don't know squat about) to possibly obtain favour with the government of the day is not a good idea either. What next? Matt Damon going to lecture Australians on aged care?

I bet from time to time - but I have a dozen betting accounts and use whoever gives me the best odds on a specific bet. I have to admit I like Shaq but find Points bet to be the worst website of the lot (which advertise regularly) for betting on US sport (basketball/NFL)

$250 million in marketing is absolutely insane for a company which has $300 million in revenues. Whatever they spend they seem to just increase the losses. Although they have a half billion in the bank, I can't see anything turning around very quickly. Blows my mind how anyone would invest in a company like this at this price (billion market cap).

View attachment 146154
And even worse this loss making company still managed to recent pay a couple of exec’s several million in bonus via the issue of several million shares. The company still hasn’t clearly articulated a clear plan for getting to making money. When will capital markets call BS on this company continually raising money to support even more marketing spend—they done how many cap raises now. Reality is even the big boys in the US struggle to make money so what hope has a minnow like PBH got to turning a profit. The half billion in the bank is only the result of successive cap raises
 
At $1.32/share if not at all time lows PBH is pretty near all time lows. Quarterly results below. They're still incinerating cash - but have $475 million in the bank. The EV has to be in the negative territory as the market cap is now about $400 million and they have negligible debt. At current rates by Q2, they'll be sitting on maybe $425 million? That's my guess.

There is a point at which they are a takeover target by another betting player who can cull a lot of the spending costs. Surely the likes of Draftkings in the US is looking at this company... But would the regulators allow it? I could easily see this company as the target of a 'fake' takeover bid as well to allow private equity to get in and then out with a nice little boost. Something has to occur in the next few months they can't just keep doing the same thing over and over. The growth just doesn't seem to be big enough.

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Good afternoon
Couple of announcements today (28/12/22).
Very interesting ?

The Australian Newspaper must have a reliable source within PBH because they were pretty much on the money about a buyer fir their Australian Operations.

Points bet has admitted today that it is in talks with NTD Pty Ltd, “regarding a potential transaction involving the sake of its Australian trading business … “

SP has gained 5.2% ($1.415) at present. It got to $1.49.

Not holding.

Have a prosperous new year.

Edit: … or the info was purposely leaked to the media

Kind regards
rcw1
 
I think it has finally bottomed out, and has a strong foothold in the USA to grow, while still in significant loss, I think they will see positive growth in the next 12 months as sportsbetting continue to grow.
 
I think it has finally bottomed out, and has a strong foothold in the USA to grow, while still in significant loss, I think they will see positive growth in the next 12 months as sportsbetting continue to grow.
Their OZ biz is certainly kicking goals.

The US biz is, however, a very different story. PBH has only approximately 3% market share and has been losing serious money to the tune of circa 50/60 mill per quarter for the past 2 years. The big guns in the US (e.g., DK, FD, BMGM etc) each have around 30/35% market share and even with that market share none of the big guns are profitable. PBH simply does not have the cash nor the resources to go toe-to-toe with the big guns let alone move from single digit market share to double digit market share--even if PBH could move to double digital market share they would still not be profitable. I'm afraid I see the US expansion as a massive liability for PBH and is certainly the reason their share price has been smashed the past 12 months.

PBH is a massive dog IMHO
 
Their OZ biz is certainly kicking goals.
The US biz is, however, a very different story. PBH has only approximately 3% market share and has been losing serious money ......
shrinking to greatness, or irrelevance.

The Company ..will be making the Second Capital Return of A$127 million (representing A$0.39 per Share)

As set out in the Capital Return NoM, the estimated amount of each Capital Return was based on a number of assumptions regarding future events, trading conditions, business performance and the successful implementation of the sale of the US Business.

In determining A$0.39 per share the Board’s core consideration is to ensure the Company has sufficient capital to execute its ongoing operational and strategic plans
.

Screenshot_20240505-113221_CommSec.jpg

.
was $15 a share three years ago
 
I'm pretty sure the US selloff constitutes another horrific failure of Australians trying to do business in the US - Although pointsbet did manage to salvage something with the sale.

I don't have a great feel for the remaining business, but I don't see them being successful in Canada. They're forecasting a "breakeven EBITDA" by 2025.... When is actual breakeven forecast? What about profit? PBH is still losing money, spin off Canada to the TSX and let it progress on its own and see if Australia can make a profit.

If you failed in America - you're going to fail in Canada too
 
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