Pavilion103's LIVE ASX Momentum Setup Trading Thread

[debtfree]

Peter, I understand what you say and that certainly makes sense to me, so thanks for tip.

I was mainly using the 1% to illustrate the dangers of using a very tight initial stop loss area and the risk side of it such as the price drop of a share. Never thinking of doing it myself, not nowadays. Maybe when I first started out. just joking! Thanks Peter

 

[tech/a]

Don't know what all the fuss is about.
It happens its an outlier.

Don't care what your method of trading is
-----If you were in SRX when it happened
you'd have suffered the same loss as the guy who was
a Fundamentalist/Gambler/Systems/Discretionary
trader----

Had a few in my time.

NEXT!

 

[Gordon7]

Thanks Gordon7, that's a good picture to illustrate your points of view. It made me think about individual shares .... when do most price shocks/drops occur, you know the ones that hurt the most? Is it when traders climb onto a stock after it has been pushed upwards to stretched levels (high volatility) like you have shown on your chart?

Bear in mind that this announcement could have come at anytime and the chart is totally irrelevant in that case.

From my experience most 'hits' to a stock occur whilst they are in a downtrend. Rarer to occur at a top though a stock could be a little more vulnerable when it has built up some 'froth' (high expectations) as SRX has done.

 

[debtfree]

Your right Tech, most of the time it doesn't matter what you do or what you say or put into place, it'll still get you every now and again. Just swallow your pill and move on or as you say, NEXT! But, still glad to have covered it anyway and to have given it some thought.

 

[peter2]

No fuss here. I just wanted to dim any unrealistic expectations of above average/quick profit. We'll be plodding along.

Trading Update:
CGF: Bought the BO-New High (>7.10) at 7.11 (iSL 6.80). Limited the pos size to 20% account (ie $10K) so the amount risked is <0.9%.

APN: In trading halt as two large sellers negotiate their sales. I've decided to sell this at the next open, whatever the price is.
SYR: Exit triggered, sell next open (Fri open).

NAN: Raise TS to 1.67
AGF: Raise TS to 1.215
WOR: Raise TS to 9.50
PAN: Raise TS to 0.52

 

[skc]

Don't know what all the fuss is about.
It happens its an outlier.

Don't care what your method of trading is
-----If you were in SRX when it happened
you'd have suffered the same loss as the guy who was
a Fundamentalist/Gambler/Systems/Discretionary
trader----

Had a few in my time.

NEXT!

True but I believe Peter is just stressing the importance of having a sense-check on the absolute position size... and not just on the 1% or 2% rule. A trader ignorant of this could have used a 2% rule and a 80c stop on a $50k account and ended up with 1250 shares @ $38 (or $47.5k). Then the only NEXT! for the poor guy would be a new career.

No fuss here. I just wanted to dim any unrealistic expectations of above average/quick profit. We'll be plodding along.

Trading Update:
CGF: Bought the BO-New High (>7.10) at 7.11 (iSL 6.80). Limited the pos size to 20% account (ie $10K) so the amount risked is <0.9%.

APN: In trading halt as two large sellers negotiate their sales. I've decided to sell this at the next open, whatever the price is.
SYR: Exit triggered, sell next open (Fri open).

FWIW, I bought some CGF today as well, but I'd only give it to $7. It's the 3rd time testing that level. It's not allowed to come back anymore.

P.S. APN... a block trade @ 88c with NewsCorp buying in 14.99% stake pending regulatory approval. A potential swing if it opens too low. But I understand your EOD system has its rules so sell on open it is.

 

[peter2]

EOW portfolio update: We remain patient waiting for significant price movements. It's too early to discuss stats.

This weeks sells:
APN: Sold open (Fri) as price was going nowhere. Naturally, as soon as I did NWS came in with a big buy and moved the price a bit.
SYR: Sold open (Fri) after exit triggered yesterday.

This weeks buys:
CNU: Bought BO-NH, low volume a concern.
CGF: Bought BO-NH (>7.10).

Spend some time over the weekend looking for a few setups.
We can start three(3) new trades when a posted setup triggers. We have $12,856 cash available.
(I might have a look over tech/a's shoulder when he looks at the DAX tonight. )

Minor changes to sell exits (TS) are highlighted in yellow.

 

[peter2]

Hi, I look at a lot of charts and quite often come across something interesting that makes me think how would I handle that situation. I look at my trading rule sets to find the answer. If I haven't got an IF/THEN statement to manage that situation, I know I need to add one. How do I know what is the best thing to do? The only way to find out is to backtest to find the best way to manage the situation. However I'm not a coding expert and most situations are reasonably complex to code, so I end up with something that feels correct rather than knowing it is correct.

There's a big difference between feeling correct and knowing it's correct. I don't want to start a discussion on this aspect here. This thread is about trading price swings and a break-out is an indication that price might continue to move higher.

I posted that I'd missed the breakout in the CCL chart. Here is the question.
Having missed out on buying the BO at the correct time and price (10.71 - 10.75, 20/3/15), would you buy it at that price on the very next day if it trades at that price?



ps: If this thread is to be an educational one then we have to do some thinking and some work on our trading plans. You do have them don't you?

 

[peter2]

I know that most experienced traders will have a response to my question. I don't want their responses. I received lots of encouraging PMs to continue Pav's thread from people who don't post much. Well? I'd like to read your responses to the questions I post in this thread.

It's up to you if this thread continues to be an educational one.

 

[tech/a]

I know that most experienced traders will have a response to my question. I don't want their responses. I received lots of encouraging PMs to continue Pav's thread from people who don't post much. Well? I'd like to read your responses to the questions I post in this thread.

It's up to you if this thread continues to be an educational one.

I have an opinion in real-time.
Problem is that if I give that opinion later it doesn't have the same impact nor does it point out things I see
in real-time.
Perhaps I can mark them up and send them to you now or tonight
OR
Ill just do it in hindsight----after others have answered you.(I agree with your post by the way).

 

[peter2]

Tech/a and others, your opinions ARE important, especially when they differ from my own. I appreciate you giving time for others to post. I hope some do.

 

[kid hustlr]

I'll put my hand up and say If that 2 bar pattern happened and I missed the initial entry I would not buy now. similarly I probably wouldn't have moved my stop to b/e had I entered initially so there's clearly a gap in my thinking.

Interested to hear the result of this because this happens a lot (especially futures).

EDIT: Just on that, I'm not sure I'd necessarily be keen to buy that breakout anyway in the spot marked but that is a different topic of discussion.

 

[myrtie100]

I would buy.
I see an ascending triangle And have noticed often with these patterns the price will come down and retest the breakout resistance/support area.
Peter, thank you for continuing this thread. It is definitely benefitting me!

 

[peter2]

myrtie100: I'm extremely pleased to see a first time poster responding. Thank -you.

I'm leaving more time for others to get home from work and settle down. There is no right/wrong answer, so it's either a yes or no, but I'm interested in your reasons for the yes/no reply.

 

[debtfree]

G'day Peter, interesting ... first of all I thought you had a plan on this situation. Say if you did buy the breakout, I thought you mentioned in an earlier post, your exits would be triggered by a close below the trigger level. Well it did today so if you were in, the exit would be tomorrow's open. Why would you be thinking to buy when you have this in your plan. Another thing you have stated if a breakout trade doesn't go up immediately you know it's in trouble.

As for myself NO, if I'm buying breakouts and I've missed the trade, move onto the next breakout. I like the ones moving in the right direction and this one is not, not today anyway. Looks like it just filling the jap still from back in April last year.

I'd be interested to hear Tech's thoughts as well, he sees things I don't but I'm still trying. Might need another go at that 10.95 - 11.00 mark. Ahh bugger it, I'll have a crack Tech ... I think there is still enough supply there to stop it from running higher, probably wrong but I had to give it a go.

 

[tech/a]

Tech/a and others, your opinions ARE important, especially when they differ from my own. I appreciate you giving time for others to post. I hope some do.

This one does Peter.
Ill post it in the morning
Its also different to everyone else so far.

 

[peter2]

I haven't mentioned mine yet, but I had better do it now. My response to missed CCL BO opportunity.

1. As a BO trader, if I didn't place the pending buy stop orders to buy if 10.71 trades (limit buy 10.75) then I've missed this trade. This is a trading mistake if I did see the setup in time to consider the orders.
2. NO, I will not buy it here as it's not a buy signal. If you think that it's a second chance to buy the BO then you are incorrect. If you do this repeatedly (wait for a second chance) then you will miss all the great BO's that don't come back.
3. As a BO trader, the next buy signal is when price trades above the highest price of the last two days. If I wanted to get into CCL then I'd place a pending buy stop if 10.95 trades and use a closer iSL than the old one. BUT 10.95 is too close to the 11.00 round number which may provide some resistance. I'd need to place pending orders >11.00 and I might as well wait to see what happens then. Nothing for me to do now.
4. If I'd bought yesterday's BO, what would I do is another question for a different time. debtfree: Is there really enough room to move a TS up and reduce the risk? I don't think so.

OK tech/a, post it up (CCL chart opinion) when you have the time.

 

[peter2]

Trading update: (While tech/a is perusing his CCL chart.)

NAN: Price closes at +4R target. This is an above ave. result and I closed the API trade at this level to grab the profit at that time. Why not do it now? First, price has recently just broken higher from a consolidation, so I am willing to let it get higher. Second, the portfolio risk is under control and there are only a few trades under water. This is very different to the period when the API trade was going well. I hope a few of you budding portfolio managers understand this distinction.

NAN: Move TS up to 1.75.

I assess the RR in every trade and then overlay the RR of the portfolio as a whole.

AGF: Now at +1.3R and we'll leave room for price to put in a smaller higher low. No point tightening the TS here. We want to let the portfolio burst higher.

WOR: Both WOR and MND had a similar setup but WOR gave me the buy signal one day before MND. Damn.

PAN: Move TS up to 0.55
CGF: Move TS up to 6.90
CNU: Come on, get a move on.

JHX-cfd: New trade. Bought BO-NH at 15.30. (iSL = 14.70)
AIA: New trade. Bought new high at 4.40 (iSL = 4.20) Limited this cash position (non-cfd) to 10K (20%)

This leaves us $1605 cash and a capital exposure of 4.7% (< 6% limit). We have invested 144% which I think is a sensible use of leverage at this time in the market.

We can start one more cfd trade like MMS or another if one breaks out soon.

 

[tech/a]

And now-----------for something completely different!

 

[Triathlete]

I posted that I'd missed the breakout in the CCL chart. Here is the question.
Having missed out on buying the BO at the correct time and price (10.71 - 10.75, 20/3/15), would you buy it at that price on the very next day if it trades at that price?

View attachment 62069

ps: If this thread is to be an educational one then we have to do some thinking and some work on our trading plans. You do have them don't you?

Nice Question...my view is it all depends how much risk I was willing to take. Since the candlestick is a down bar that is retesting the breakout level again but the volume is not supporting this move down I would be still of the opinion the move should still continue higher.

If I did take the trade I would set my stop at the previous low just below the $10.40 level as at this point I would say my analysis would be completely wrong.

Looking at the chart I would now feel more confident if the next bar closed above the previous up bar around $10.90 on rising volume. This would help support my view that the stock was ready to continue higher.

Of course I would have already worked out also my own price target and where the resistance levels are above as this would also have an impact as to whether I would take the trade or not even on the breakout.