Pavilion103's LIVE ASX Momentum Setup Trading Thread

[peter2]

grah33: re capital raisings (share purchase plans): In the trading halt I remove any sell orders that are in the market, read the notice and do a back of envelope calculation as to the theoretical share price after the dilution at the new price. If this new price is below my TS then I get out asap. If this price is above my TS then I wait until the end of the notice day. The unknown is the reaction to the news by the large investors. If they love it and think management will do something positive with the money they'll hold on and buy more. If they don't like it they'll sell. So far today the price remains above our TS and the selling has been soaked up by buyers.

AMA: We bought this at 0.60. TS raised to 0.59 and is in the market. If it trades at 0.59, we will sell for a small loss.

xr06t: Welcome, thanks for the compliment in your first ASF post. This thread may end but I think there's going to be a sequel. Hope you post again soon. tech/a has done a good job of replying to your question. If you really want to get into trading then you need the tools. Amibroker is the most economical scanning software that I know. The data is an additional monthly cost. There may be some free online ASX scanners around. I can't help you there. If you find one then a quick way to find charts worth looking at and keeping an eye on are those charts with huge increases in daily volume. They are the stocks in play and worth looking at.

 

[debtfree]

Thanks Peter for the update and your thoughts on AMA, appreciate it.

 

[debtfree]

Hi xr06t,

Welcome, good to see you in here and picking up tips. I don't know if Peter was a teacher in his previous life or in this one but he has done a great job as Tech/a has stated earlier. There is always something to learn and digest from these two guys so hang in there and keep your mind open. I'll see you in the new thread

Free ASX scanner: I have been using Incredible Charts Charting Program and it has a scanner, although limited and I'm pretty sure the free version updates end of day data at 7pm. So run your scanner after then and it also has a scan volume that Peter speaks about as well.

Cheers ... Debtfree

 

[peter2]

EOW17 final update: Pav's Momemtum Portfolio +6.7% ( 44% invested in 4 trades ) XAO -6.1% (17 wks)

The portfolio lost a little of its open profit as the market fell late this week. It's hard to believe that 17 weeks has passed since I started managing this portfolio. As you are aware I'll be continuing in another thread and we'll be adding a bit of extra flexibility so that we don't have large periods of inactivity.

Let's look at what we accomplished using Pav setups. The market conditions started favourably for us, stalled and then went into a severe dip. Initially the dip was contained to the banks but this soon spread throughout the market.

W% = 38%. Down from my anticipated 45%. This is due to unfavourable market conditions, but you have to be prepared for this to happen at any time. It might have been good to suffer through a down market as we learn more about the effectiveness of our risk management procedures when the going gets tough. We didn't have a big bad loss. Sure, we had plenty of losses, but nothing big enough to cripple our progress. That's surviving.

AW = $607 (~1.2%) This is below our goal, but again due to unfavourable market conditions.
AL = $284 ( ~0.6%) This is slightly better than expected, due to our reduction of open risk as the market dropped.

These stats confirm that we have managed the earn a profit with a small edge. If all our open trades were to close at/near their exits then the remaining profit would be ~+3.7%. If we can earn a profit and hang on to it during the unfavourable conditions then think what we can do when the markets become favourable.

 

[peter2]

I've been pleasantly surprised by the positive support for my contributions in this thread and that's the main reason for me continuing.

There have been a few people keen enough to ask questions and post their thoughts. I thank them, because I don't wish to talk to myself.

I'd hoped to see a few more posts from people who don't post. I assume there's a whole lot of you out there, reading but dare not post. Come on, have a go.

:thankyou: :bekloppt:

 

[ah13]

Hi Peter

You're quite right and I'm one of those following you daily but "dare not post"! Would just like to thank you - you've given so generously of your time and knowledge and I've learned so much. Am looking forward to the new thread and learning a great deal more - very much appreciated.

 

[The Beagle]

Hi Peter
Like ah13, I to have enjoyed this thread, and will be following your new threads. Many thanks to you for your time and effort and experience that your've shared with us. I have learnt a lot from your posts, along with TechA and Debtfree's contributions as well. Thank you.

 

[debtfree]

Having not traded stocks for a while I am taking a bit of a punt posting live trades, however as with everything I've posted on ASF, I am to show people the thought process or trading in real time. Whether or not this exercise proves to be successful remains to be seen.

Wish me luck

PAV: I know you will read this one day, in your own time and when you are good and ready. The above quote is from your 1st post in this thread.

Well as time has gone by, all can see what you started off here has been very successful, so Congratulations and Thank You for all your time and effort, ideas and replies.

Every week I find myself chasing up previous posts of yours for ideas, answers and clues for getting myself more organized. So before moving onto the new thread I just wanted to say once again, Thanks Pav, I've appreciated your help so much. We'll catch up soon, wishing you good health and happiness.

Cheers ... Debtfree

 

[Trav.]

This is probably the 3rd time that I have gone through this thread and each time picked up something that is relevant to my stage of trading. This time trade management was the subject that I needed some direction on and the information is contained in this thread, you just need to be ready to take it in. I suppose that is part of the journey.

Thanks to all that have contributed especially @peter2