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Boggo - sorry 
Pavilion103's LIVE ASX Momentum Setup Trading Thread
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Thanks peter.
Yes we could play it that way.
I like to try and be patient and stifle those feelings of missing out.
I'm happy to wait for my price for days - as long as the pattern is still intact.
You're right tho - no one knows what it's going to do.
I wonder if tech/a has any insight on the volume?
Higher than average volume for 2 days - lots of supply??
The sellers managed to get the price down a little from the high today.
Yes we could play it that way.
I like to try and be patient and stifle those feelings of missing out.
I'm happy to wait for my price for days - as long as the pattern is still intact.
You're right tho - no one knows what it's going to do.
I wonder if tech/a has any insight on the volume?
Higher than average volume for 2 days - lots of supply??
The sellers managed to get the price down a little from the high today.
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Boggo - sorry
No problem.
My suggestion wasn't directly at you myrtie100, I would just hate to see this thread turn into a stock tipping thread.
If people had to add a bit (as you have) it may tend to reduce simply symbols posts.
There have been a few threads in the past that have been derailed or Joe has had to intervene.
I should probably keep quiet though as it is Pav and peter's project
Cheers.
tech/a
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I'm afraid Volume indicates supply and resistance once more to prevail.
I think there is some supply to be exhausted.
If it cant go on with it it will be clear distribution into buyers.
Today's bar sees a retreat from the highs.
The gaps up could be exhaustion gaps.
I'm not bullish---yet.
Need to see clear break of resistance.
I think there is some supply to be exhausted.
If it cant go on with it it will be clear distribution into buyers.
Today's bar sees a retreat from the highs.
The gaps up could be exhaustion gaps.
I'm not bullish---yet.
Need to see clear break of resistance.
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Another important topic has come up. Thanks craft.
I love it when the market provides opportunities to learn and we grab the opportunity to get ourselves a little better prepared for the future.
Trading around dividends. This is important if the size of the div is a significant part of your open trade risk (downside exposure). It won't be an issue for the medium to longer term traders (they love the divs).
The current chart of MMS and craft provided the case study. Would you start a trade with a risk of 0.60 just before the stock went XD worth 0.25? IMO this an indiviual decision as we all have different risk tolerances. Personally I avoid them and won't start short term trades before XD dates. In my medium term portfolio I swallow the div and make the tax man spit up the franking credits. In raging bull markets it doesn't matter as much as the divs are quickly swallowed by the eager buyers. Currently we are not in a raging bull market.
The text books state that we should adjust our sell exits by the amount of the div and carry on. I'm not so sure about this advice. Chart levels of support and resistance should still be respected and I don't like to see XD prices go through these levels.
In summary: If you plan to be a short term trader and use tight exit stops then you should be aware of XD dates and scheduled news events related to your stock (company) and to scheduled news related to the underlying commodity that your company uses/produces. This is essential due diligence in the business of trading.
I love it when the market provides opportunities to learn and we grab the opportunity to get ourselves a little better prepared for the future.
Trading around dividends. This is important if the size of the div is a significant part of your open trade risk (downside exposure). It won't be an issue for the medium to longer term traders (they love the divs).
The current chart of MMS and craft provided the case study. Would you start a trade with a risk of 0.60 just before the stock went XD worth 0.25? IMO this an indiviual decision as we all have different risk tolerances. Personally I avoid them and won't start short term trades before XD dates. In my medium term portfolio I swallow the div and make the tax man spit up the franking credits. In raging bull markets it doesn't matter as much as the divs are quickly swallowed by the eager buyers. Currently we are not in a raging bull market.
The text books state that we should adjust our sell exits by the amount of the div and carry on. I'm not so sure about this advice. Chart levels of support and resistance should still be respected and I don't like to see XD prices go through these levels.
In summary: If you plan to be a short term trader and use tight exit stops then you should be aware of XD dates and scheduled news events related to your stock (company) and to scheduled news related to the underlying commodity that your company uses/produces. This is essential due diligence in the business of trading.
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Trading update: We did a few things today.
DMP: Placed our buy order at 37.50 and we were executed at the open price (37.40). Our iSL is 35.00.
Yes myrtie100 you could have bought at your lower price, but over many trades would your strategy be helpful or hurtful. You would get into all the failed BOs and miss the good ones. Ouch. In a wishy-washy market like now, you may not notice, but in a raging bull market you would.
Anyhow, we're risking 1% on this trade and we don't know what is going to happen tomorrow.
TNE: Bought at 4.05 (iSL - 3.85) I don't like to see price closing below the BO level. That's trading. Tomorrow's another day.
NAN: Exit triggered in this trade.
AGF: Sell stop (TS) raised to 1.30
DMP: Placed our buy order at 37.50 and we were executed at the open price (37.40). Our iSL is 35.00.
Yes myrtie100 you could have bought at your lower price, but over many trades would your strategy be helpful or hurtful. You would get into all the failed BOs and miss the good ones. Ouch. In a wishy-washy market like now, you may not notice, but in a raging bull market you would.
Anyhow, we're risking 1% on this trade and we don't know what is going to happen tomorrow.
TNE: Bought at 4.05 (iSL - 3.85) I don't like to see price closing below the BO level. That's trading. Tomorrow's another day.
NAN: Exit triggered in this trade.
AGF: Sell stop (TS) raised to 1.30
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For Peter's eyes only
I don't know how much juice is left in this market but some trades you might consider in the near future are EHE, MFG and MNF should they break out of their highs of recent days. I may or may not take some of these trades.
I don't know how much juice is left in this market but some trades you might consider in the near future are EHE, MFG and MNF should they break out of their highs of recent days. I may or may not take some of these trades.
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Thanks Gordon7.
EHE: I picked that one up already from your post in the stock chat section. Nice trend continuation setup. I hadn't seen that chart because it's a newish listing.
MFG: I see a symmetrical triangle pattern.
MNY: Weekly pullback or daily reversal setup. That's a scary chart for a trader, because of all the big red down bars and repeating pullbacks. I'll leave this one for you and the ambush traders.
If people post their charts in the stock specific threads, I'll see them and they'll probably get more in-depth comments from other members. eg. EHE is in a hot sector atm and other companies in the same sector get a mention. (except JHC).
EHE: I picked that one up already from your post in the stock chat section. Nice trend continuation setup. I hadn't seen that chart because it's a newish listing.
MFG: I see a symmetrical triangle pattern.
MNY: Weekly pullback or daily reversal setup. That's a scary chart for a trader, because of all the big red down bars and repeating pullbacks. I'll leave this one for you and the ambush traders.
If people post their charts in the stock specific threads, I'll see them and they'll probably get more in-depth comments from other members. eg. EHE is in a hot sector atm and other companies in the same sector get a mention. (except JHC).
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Important topic. In the interests of learning tips for efficiency, it would be good to hear how people do their XD date research?
For example, do you keep a list of all dividend dates sorted by date for reference when considering candidates, or perhaps you make it part of your fundamental data checks before entering a technical BO trade?
Would be curious to hear/learn.
Many thanks too Peter for investing so much of your time teaching good habits here. I've personally found your portfolio heat and risk metrics music to the ears, at a time of becoming much more "risk aware/adverse" in my personal trading development.
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EOW Trading Update: Then it's a few days away from the markets. The portfolio held on to most of its open profit as the high market volatility continued. Think I'm suffering some whiplash. The market is poised to move and I don't know which direction.
This weeks sells:
PAN, WOR, NAN: Closed as their exits were triggered.
CAJ: Also sold as the exit was triggered. Mea culpa. I raised the TS too hastily in response to a few down days. Locking in $224 of profit is not significant. Keeping the TS at BE would see us still in the trade. Both Boggo and I knew that it was a bit hasty, but I don't want to change my mind on the day and between posts. We'll re-buy when it trades at 1.105 or above.
Hasty decisions happen all the time and discretionary traders will do it more than most. I'm currently managing six portfolios (four real and two educational) with open trades in many of the same stock codes. That's why I love the re-buy order. If price takes off again, we'll buy it.
This weeks buys:
DMP and TNE. Bought BOs.
I was keeping an eye on WBA as a spike then pullback setup. Price triggered the buy at 1.55 today and I was all set to place it in the portfolio. When I looked at the market depth for a purchase, it was crap. A few bid at 1.52 then a gap to 1.60 which someone paid. I'm not going to trade this myself, so I shouldn't put it in the portfolio. The price for WBA could go from 1.52 to 1.70 quickly and It would be a good quick +1.5R win. I prefer to trade stocks with higher daily volume. There's plenty out there (like IWG).
What's new: Well, the completed trades are showing a profit. Got to love that. This means we start compounding and the new 1% is now $508.
Max position size is being kept to 20%.
What's old: Trades in AIA, SEN, CNU. Yawn. We have cash and cap risk available to use. No point closing them yet.
This weeks sells:
PAN, WOR, NAN: Closed as their exits were triggered.
CAJ: Also sold as the exit was triggered. Mea culpa. I raised the TS too hastily in response to a few down days. Locking in $224 of profit is not significant. Keeping the TS at BE would see us still in the trade. Both Boggo and I knew that it was a bit hasty, but I don't want to change my mind on the day and between posts. We'll re-buy when it trades at 1.105 or above.
Hasty decisions happen all the time and discretionary traders will do it more than most. I'm currently managing six portfolios (four real and two educational) with open trades in many of the same stock codes. That's why I love the re-buy order. If price takes off again, we'll buy it.
This weeks buys:
DMP and TNE. Bought BOs.
I was keeping an eye on WBA as a spike then pullback setup. Price triggered the buy at 1.55 today and I was all set to place it in the portfolio. When I looked at the market depth for a purchase, it was crap. A few bid at 1.52 then a gap to 1.60 which someone paid. I'm not going to trade this myself, so I shouldn't put it in the portfolio. The price for WBA could go from 1.52 to 1.70 quickly and It would be a good quick +1.5R win. I prefer to trade stocks with higher daily volume. There's plenty out there (like IWG).
What's new: Well, the completed trades are showing a profit. Got to love that. This means we start compounding and the new 1% is now $508.
Max position size is being kept to 20%.
What's old: Trades in AIA, SEN, CNU. Yawn. We have cash and cap risk available to use. No point closing them yet.
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Hi Newt,
Here is one resource I use for Dividends:
http://www.sharedividends.com.au/viewStory/Upcoming+Dividends
Peter2
I have been really enjoying reading your strategy. One I have been keeping my eye on is ALU
I have a buy stop in for ALU at 4.50 and sell stop at 4.20
I will keep reading as long as you keep posting
Mike
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Trading update: A few executive decisions made today.
EPD: Bought on open with 0.83 bid, paid 0.82 (iSL = 0.77)
After today's close, I'm raising TS to close < 0.81.
CAJ: Traded >1.10, Bought 1.10 (iSL = 1.00 )
ALU: Traded > 4.50, Bought 4.51 (iSL = 4.30)
Sell triggers raised (highlighted in yellow); to reduce open risk
AGF - 1.40
JHX - 15.10
EPD - 0.81
TNE - 4.00
DMP - 35.50
Our trades in AIA, CNU were sold at today's close due to low market depth and no upward momentum. We've no time for snails. I'm doing this to make cash available so that we can get into some faster/higher volume moves (hopefully). Why didn't we see ERJ.
EPD: Bought on open with 0.83 bid, paid 0.82 (iSL = 0.77)
After today's close, I'm raising TS to close < 0.81.
CAJ: Traded >1.10, Bought 1.10 (iSL = 1.00 )
ALU: Traded > 4.50, Bought 4.51 (iSL = 4.30)
Sell triggers raised (highlighted in yellow); to reduce open risk
AGF - 1.40
JHX - 15.10
EPD - 0.81
TNE - 4.00
DMP - 35.50
Our trades in AIA, CNU were sold at today's close due to low market depth and no upward momentum. We've no time for snails. I'm doing this to make cash available so that we can get into some faster/higher volume moves (hopefully). Why didn't we see ERJ.
skc
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ALU should be reporting Q3 sales and revenue before the end of the week. They reported last year on 10 April. It's often quite a moving event.
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Trading update: It doesn't matter how you trade, there are times when you must be patient. Currently the market is gyrating between a high and a low and we must wait to see what happens next. While we wait for an exit trigger to sell, we scan the charts for perfect setups. There are quite a few charts ready to break-out to new yearly highs. Most of these are larger price stocks and seem to be great opportunities to add to our medium term portfolios. I'd like to get into a few lower priced stocks and see if we can get a few easy wins.
Today was actually a good day for this portfolio. Most prices went up and only a few went down. Nice.
Thought for today is all about patience. Trading setups that aren't perfect is over-trading. This may be a short term portfolio but we don't have to start a trade unless it's perfect and we are going with the market. As the market is going sideways, we wait.
Of course, both AIA and CNU (closed yesterday) went up today. Tough. I'm not concerned. I only peeked as I knew YOU would. I could place a pending buy stop for CNU at 2.90 (iSL 2.75) but the market depth must look better than it has.
ps: Thanks for the ALU info skc. Our exit trigger is out of the market and based on the closing price.
Today was actually a good day for this portfolio. Most prices went up and only a few went down. Nice.
Thought for today is all about patience. Trading setups that aren't perfect is over-trading. This may be a short term portfolio but we don't have to start a trade unless it's perfect and we are going with the market. As the market is going sideways, we wait.
Of course, both AIA and CNU (closed yesterday) went up today. Tough. I'm not concerned. I only peeked as I knew YOU would. I could place a pending buy stop for CNU at 2.90 (iSL 2.75) but the market depth must look better than it has.
ps: Thanks for the ALU info skc. Our exit trigger is out of the market and based on the closing price.
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This is something that I have had my eye on for my fundamental portfolio given the board changes and accounting changes that the company has undergone, however it appears to me that it is consolidating a breakout of the long term HR at $5.30.
Weekly for relevance.
As per the new guidelines, personally I would go for a buy order at a close above 553 with a stop on a close below 497. I am not a breakout trader and hence these levels are just a stab at what I think looks appropriate - happy to be corrected if for instance a stop below 520 is the better choice.
Weekly for relevance.
As per the new guidelines, personally I would go for a buy order at a close above 553 with a stop on a close below 497. I am not a breakout trader and hence these levels are just a stab at what I think looks appropriate - happy to be corrected if for instance a stop below 520 is the better choice.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Like it
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Trading update: Up one day, down the next.
EXITS triggered in SEN, CAJ.
TNE: TS raised to BE (4.05)
Comment: SEN, our momentum trade is over, but I like the orderly 3-wave (abc) retracement seen on this chart following the impulsive move to the last high. Fib ambush traders take note.
EXITS triggered in SEN, CAJ.
TNE: TS raised to BE (4.05)
Comment: SEN, our momentum trade is over, but I like the orderly 3-wave (abc) retracement seen on this chart following the impulsive move to the last high. Fib ambush traders take note.
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EOW Update: The last two weeks went by very quickly.
This weeks sells:
SEN, CAJ : Due to the exits being triggered.
AIA, CNU: Due low market depth and no price movement. Of course things are looking a little better now. That's trading.
This weeks buys:
EPD, ALU:
Note about our exits: Sell at our TS (trigger) when there is enough market depth, rather than wait for next open. There was enough depth on both SEN and CAJ to sell at our stop levels. This is purely an educational exercise. The overnight slippage in those two stocks concerns me.
Modifications to our exits are highlighted in yellow.
Our portfolio is moving along nicely and you can see we have 6/7 profitable open trades. That's what we do. We collect winning trades. We have lots of cash available (~29K) and if the market breaks-out to new highs next week we should start a few more trades.
This weeks sells:
SEN, CAJ : Due to the exits being triggered.
AIA, CNU: Due low market depth and no price movement. Of course things are looking a little better now. That's trading.
This weeks buys:
EPD, ALU:
Note about our exits: Sell at our TS (trigger) when there is enough market depth, rather than wait for next open. There was enough depth on both SEN and CAJ to sell at our stop levels. This is purely an educational exercise. The overnight slippage in those two stocks concerns me.
Modifications to our exits are highlighted in yellow.
Our portfolio is moving along nicely and you can see we have 6/7 profitable open trades. That's what we do. We collect winning trades. We have lots of cash available (~29K) and if the market breaks-out to new highs next week we should start a few more trades.
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Portfolio is tracking nicely Peter2
Personally I have moved my ALU sell stop to break even at 4.50
This is a strategy that I have picked up from Tech A who I have been following for many a year.
The trade has moved to 1xR for me and this strategy takes risk of the table.
I notice you have moved yours to $4.40 rather than break even. Care to discuss?
As a student I welcome any discussion as to whether this is the right move or not?
Personally I have moved my ALU sell stop to break even at 4.50
This is a strategy that I have picked up from Tech A who I have been following for many a year.
The trade has moved to 1xR for me and this strategy takes risk of the table.
I notice you have moved yours to $4.40 rather than break even. Care to discuss?
As a student I welcome any discussion as to whether this is the right move or not?
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I'm happy to share my opinions but there is no right answer. If you keep good records then you can look back at your completed trades and determine which is the best strategy for you.
I have a belief that the market tests obvious break-out levels about half the time (less in bull markets, more in other conditions) and that 50% pullbacks are very common (again less in bull markets). If your trade has moved +1R then either a test of the BO level or a 50% pullback will hit your BE stop. I prefer to allow the market to test a BO level and to pullback 50% of the current swing so I don't raise my exit stops too fast at this early stage of a trade. My stops get tighter once I see the first HL after my entry and/or at +1.5 to +2R. In fact I usually exit at these price targets if they coincide with a S/R level.
Another consideration for me is that raising the exits stops quickly would create much more admin work in the portfolio. There would be a lot more selling at the BE exits (for no profit) and I'd have to find more setups. I have no doubt that managing trades like you (and tech/a) will improve your edge provided you do the extra work. Is the extra work worth it or could that extra work be used more productively?
(Hint: Do I look through a lot of charts for an educational thread or spend the time grabbing some of the +130pts move in the DAX tonight? Hm...)
I have a belief that the market tests obvious break-out levels about half the time (less in bull markets, more in other conditions) and that 50% pullbacks are very common (again less in bull markets). If your trade has moved +1R then either a test of the BO level or a 50% pullback will hit your BE stop. I prefer to allow the market to test a BO level and to pullback 50% of the current swing so I don't raise my exit stops too fast at this early stage of a trade. My stops get tighter once I see the first HL after my entry and/or at +1.5 to +2R. In fact I usually exit at these price targets if they coincide with a S/R level.
Another consideration for me is that raising the exits stops quickly would create much more admin work in the portfolio. There would be a lot more selling at the BE exits (for no profit) and I'd have to find more setups. I have no doubt that managing trades like you (and tech/a) will improve your edge provided you do the extra work. Is the extra work worth it or could that extra work be used more productively?
(Hint: Do I look through a lot of charts for an educational thread or spend the time grabbing some of the +130pts move in the DAX tonight? Hm...)
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