OXR - Oxiana Limited

[SGB]

I agree. I like OXR a lot more than ZFX. Zinc is pitiful at the moment, and OXR is in a great place at the moment. I think the merger is definatley a reason the SP has suffered.

Has now bounced off support as expected, looks promising for the short-term at least.

But you know what I cant understand MRC is that remember last year when the rumours were around about the merger and the sp would sky rocket.
One little bit of a hint of a merger and bang ...up 20c, and i think there was one time it went up 40c.

As soon as the truth come out that they did merge the sp nose dived. Just thought it was a bit odd.

SGB

 

[MRC & Co]

ha ha, good point SGB, as is the nature of the market! Such a wonderful place to be!

Can't say I was following OXR last year too closely (so no idea when the merger rumours sent up the SP), but perhaps it was because the market was more robust then! Right now, scepticism has definatley creeped in, and ZFX is now being viewed as a dog due to the price of zinc. Great cash, but without a rise in the zinc SP, how much is it really worth? The marvelous nature of complex systems! Just another reason I try and keep it as simple as I can!

 

[LeeTV]

Anyone with any idea on dividend yield estimates on the merged company

ZFX have always had a good yield, avg for the last 12mths was 12.4% compared to OXR which was 3.0%

 

[SGB]

But you know what I cant understand MRC is that remember last year when the rumours were around about the merger and the sp would sky rocket.
One little bit of a hint of a merger and bang ...up 20c, and i think there was one time it went up 40c.

As soon as the truth come out that they did merge the sp nose dived. Just thought it was a bit odd.

SGB

I was pondering again about this notion while I lay in bed ( I know, sounds a bit sad) but I come to the conclusion that there must be some element of truth in that old saying;
"Buy the rumour, Sell the fact"

SGB

 

[MRC & Co]

ha ha ha, don't worry, some of my best moments come to me while I lie pondering in bed!

But agreed, just another explanation and just another reason I try and avoid speculation.

 

[eddyeagle]

Fat Prophets giving OXR a plug today in their free email.

I topped up at the end of the day @ $2.56. There were a lot of buyers at that level.

 

[Mofra]

Can't say I was following OXR last year too closely (so no idea when the merger rumours sent up the SP), but perhaps it was because the market was more robust then! Right now, scepticism has definatley creeped in, and ZFX is now being viewed as a dog due to the price of zinc. Great cash, but without a rise in the zinc SP, how much is it really worth? The marvelous nature of complex systems! Just another reason I try and keep it as simple as I can!

Pertinent article (in terms of the ST softness in zinc)
"Sinking zinc still in the pink long term"


Date: 25/6/2008
Author: Tim Boreham
Source: The Australian
Zinc prices have taken an unexpected downturn in mid-2008 compared to the otherkey ingredients in steel making. Despite China's booming steel trade, zincmining companies such as Perilya, CBH Resources and Zinifex are struggling tocome to terms with the metal's drop in price from 2006 highs. Othersteel-making ingredients such as iron ore, coking coal and manganese haveexperienced unprecedented price growth, and many expected zinc to follow suit.Some mining companies are diluting their reliance on zinc in response to theslump. Analysts believe long-term prospects for a recovery in zinc prices aregood, as there is little new supply coming onto the market and demand for steelwill only grow from developing countries

 

[The Mint Man]

Pertinent article (in terms of the ST softness in zinc)
"Sinking zinc still in the pink long term"


Date: 25/6/2008
Author: Tim Boreham
Source: The Australian
Some mining companies are diluting their reliance on zinc in response to the slump.

Diluting their reliance on zinc, well that rings a bell dosn't it! (re OXR/ZFX merger) haha
Cheers:

 

[bvbfan]

Posted this elsewhere...

Having a look at the details of the EGM to approve the name and other business. I'm seriously considering voting against the package given to Owen.
Sure he has done a great job but to sell out now and be given $9million I think shafts OXR holders again.

I'd be happy to approve the same package as a 9-10million option package exerciseable at 1c with exercise price of $8 in 2010 or so which is where OXR would have been in once the growth pipeline was brought on stream for Prominent Hill and Martabe + the Sepon expansion.

What really ****s me more than any other deal is that we didn't get a vote. I'm sure the deal wouldn't be approved.

If Owen believes so much in this deal then he shouldn't have a problem having to wait like the rest of us for payment that he has no forced on us.

For the 1st time I'm seriously considering selling the lot of OXR I have remaining and putting the funds into a few other plays which I think will probably return 200-500% by the time OXR even gets to $6.

Be interested to see what other holders think of trying to block the retirement package given out.

Vote no to resolution 4 at least, if not all others

 

[bvbfan]

Dividend will probably be about 10c a year.

If OXR wants to keep holders who got shafted happy they better be paying a dividend around 12-15c a year which I don't see happening since that would be about $369million to $450million.

ZFX will probably only make about $400million and OXR $450-500million

 

[oldblue]

Dividend will probably be about 10c a year.

If OXR wants to keep holders who got shafted happy they better be paying a dividend around 12-15c a year which I don't see happening since that would be about $369million to $450million.

ZFX will probably only make about $400million and OXR $450-500million

Yes, I see that Citi forecast a dividend of 10cps for FY08.
And they have upgraded their recommendation from Hold to Buy. Not that we should put too much weight on brokers' recommendations!

 

[explod]

There is not a lot of zinc in production on a world scale and due to depressed prices little happening, so shortages in my view will show up in a year or two. I am very bullish long term for the new OZ Co and I think the link up with Zinnefex long term is underestimated for logistical and general economy of scale reasons. Kitco Base Metals site has an article of interest, following is the preamble:

The power of zinc: Startup CEO talks zinc-based fuel cells

Washington (Platts)--26Jun2008
Robust supply and softer demand has transformed zinc from a hot to a
lukewarm commodity, but new technology that would make zinc the power running
cell phones and laptops -- and a significant distance down the road -- a fuel
source in hybrid cars, could help launch the base metal's comeback.

Power Air Corp., based in Livermore, California, announced this week it
had entered into a technology-sharing deal with Hawthorne, New Jersey-based
eVionyx to make zinc-based battery units called Powerpacks, that will give
extended-run capability to increasingly sophisticated -- and power-hungry --
mobile electronic devices like Blackberrys, MP3 players, and global
positioning systems.

"People don't know that zinc is a potential energy source," Power Air
President and CEO Donald Ceci, told Platts. "Eventually, if the world was
running on zinc, you'd have sustainable fuel." But, he added, "There's a lot
of development work to be done."

The technology is known as the zinc-air fuel cell, which gets its name
from the underlying chemical reaction that occurs when zinc pellets are mixed
with oxygen from the air, causing zinc oxidation. Lithium is the material
currently used in the batteries powering mobile electronic devices, but
deposits of the commodity are more scattered and scarce than zinc, and
increasingly pricey in the face of insatiable demand for the next big thing in
electronics, Ceci said.

"There's not that much lithium; you get it from salt lakes on the tops of
mountains in Chile and China." While those are not the only regions where the
material is found, he said, "There's certainly not enough to run the world's
hybrid electric vehicles." What's more, Ceci added, "Lithium is getting more
and more expensive because all the portable devices are running on lithium. So
zinc is developing into the next-generation alternative to lithium. We're
pioneering that to an extent."

Although the current crop of hybrid vehicles have fuel cells based on
lithium or hydrogen, the zinc-air fuel cell is safer and better for the
environment, he said. "The nice thing about zinc is, it's nonflammable and
nonexplosive and you end up with zinc oxide as a byproduct, which is totally
recyclable. You don't burn anything up into the atmosphere [so] there's no
emissions." Also, "of all the stable elements, zinc has the highest energy
density, so it is a very good power source," Ceci said.

These qualities could raise the base metal's profile as a fuel source and
drive up its price on the order of metallurgic coal -- the coal used to make
steel -- the price of which has soared on rocketing steel demand from China.
"Broadly speaking, I think this is a trend that going to grow not only in
North America and Europe, but around the world," Bart Melek, a commodities
analyst with BMO Capital Markets, told Platts. "Certainly with oil at
$135-138/barrel, we're going have to use other ways [to get power]."

 

[rederob]

Copper will be the flagship metal of OZ in 2008 and its price has been strong for several years.
Copper inventories have continued to decline in calendar 2008.
Analysts tipped copper inventories to move into balance or oversupply this year. So far they are off the mark. Moreover, industrial action and mine supply stagnation in all but African nations is underpinning the copper price.
Last point: China is where the action is in copper, and Chinese inventories have declined in recent months - a bullish sign.

 

[vishalt]

Many merged companies will have a period of consolidation and nervousness from shareholders. Even when BHP merged Billiton or Rio Tinto and Alcan, it'll take time but we know that:

Both businesses are profitable
They have long-life, low-cost mines
Projects running past 2011
Good cashflows
Experienced management - I mean, BHP/Xtrata had to fight a lot to get a hold of WMC because of Michelmore and Owen Hegarty IS at the company lets not forget.

I'm confident about the future of this business!

 

[Mofra]

A helpful site that has an interesting article on both zinc & copper, certainly pertinent to the interests of the New Ox holders:

http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/08ac_june/

 

[explod]

We have gold strengthening and copper is now confirmed over $4 a pound. This is significant if it holds as there was strong resistance at this level going right back to May of 06. Of course its precipitated by soverieng problems, but they could in fact get much worse.

Market sentiment will in my view pound OXR down further yet. This is going to be one of the great opportunities down the track. The legacy of heggarty, bring it on.

 

[dan-o]

how low will this one go? i want to buy in but sentiment could make it a steal... anyone want to hazard a guess?

 

[SGB]

how low will this one go? i want to buy in but sentiment could make it a steal... anyone want to hazard a guess?

Don't hold me to it,

but based on the fundamentals, the overly sold conditions, and the huge support that will be there at the left hand bump on the chart, I will say $2.00-$2.10.

And ifso, IMO, will be at absolute bagain prices at these levels.
Dont personally own any yet but will be going hard if it does get to these levels. A once in a life time opportunity with the current trend in gold and copper prices.

SGB

 

[oldblue]

how low will this one go? i want to buy in but sentiment could make it a steal... anyone want to hazard a guess?

Not a good idea to "guess", IMHO.
I'm waiting for an upturn in the trend which given the state of the markets may take a while.
Patience needed!

 

[SGB]

Not a good idea to "guess", IMHO.
I'm waiting for an upturn in the trend which given the state of the markets may take a while.
Patience needed!

Maybe old blue .. Just politley answering the question that was asked IMHO!
This is just my opinion.