Hi Grey, agree with the $18.00, that line (or a bit lower), is very interesting as FMG's IV is abt $23 atm - for me, Candles & a ST CCI indicator will call the tune at that level.Yes - now that I see you were looking at a break down (not up) there is a resistance break on FMG. I'll watch it to see if price goes a bit lower to $18.00 where I would normally see the target of the break being (if I was ignoring the impact of the stock going ex-dividend). Yes in these circumstances where a dividend drops the price materially I'd say it probably does impact on the viability of the resistance break. But as I don't trade short it isn't something I've ever had to worry about before.
Well we can't take any clues from the US markets overnight as it was closed over there for labour day...i don't expect $12 ( for FMG ) , unless under extraordinary circumstances
and $17 is ambitious but i can afford , to wait the next results are roughly five months away
but Commsec is already whining about high call volumes and the ASX isn't even open , could be an eventful day
And where did FMG fall to today?? A friend of mine was banging on the other day about the great FMG dividends coming his way but if the price drops (as it has) his capital loss has wiped out those gains. His response is that 'it will recover' and it very well might but it is a good example of why chasing dividends just before ex-day is generally a really bad idea.Hi Grey, agree with the $18.00, that line (or a bit lower), is very interesting as FMG's IV is abt $23 atm - for me, Candles & a ST CCI indicator will call the tune at that level.
Would love to get back in ASAP, I feel that the "Double Top & the $12 call" is a bit "out of the ball park."
As mentioned in my previous posts, was never going to get involved like this again, so this is an experiment.
CYA
FMG touched $17.72 during the day before finishing @ $17.99And where did FMG fall to today?? A friend of mine was banging on the other day about the great FMG dividends coming his way but if the price drops (as it has) his capital loss has wiped out those gains. His response is that 'it will recover' and it very well might but it is a good example of why chasing dividends just before ex-day is generally a really bad idea.
While it is nice to pick up a 24% gain and while clearly a dog of a stock, 2 sayings come to mind - "Sleep with dogs and you get fleas" and "Every dog has its day". For a relatively illiquid penny dreadful with geo-political risk you would need extra large fitting underwear to take on such a high risk - but of course there is another saying "Fortune favours the bold". I'm not bold enough for XAM, but clearly some out there are.I've been watching this for some time and yesterday was very unusual. Move based on no ann. This has been very unloved and in the dog house for ages, even though they have a decent project. The boogeyman has been Mongolia. I don't think there's too many who would have been accumulating up till the last few trading days so I doubt there will be a lot of profit taking, as there isn't any real profit to take. Anywho, chart wise, yesterday was a break. For how long, who knows. I have no faith in this puppy. Everybody hates poor Mongolia.
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While it is nice to pick up a 24% gain and while clearly a dog of a stock, 2 sayings come to mind - "Sleep with dogs and you get fleas" and "Every dog has its day". For a relatively illiquid penny dreadful with geo-political risk you would need extra large fitting underwear to take on such a high risk - but of course there is another saying "Fortune favours the bold". I'm not bold enough for XAM, but clearly some out there are.
I don't have any problem with your logic and hope BYE works for you, but I've always shyed away from those low value stocks that can be illiquid. As soon as I see that 'blocky' daily chart pattern - I move on. There are resistance levels all over the shop with BYE but the one I'd be watching is exactly where price has peaked - $0.155. I can also see what you mean about the C&H pattern but for me it doesn't quite fit the profile I'd be looking for. The small pattern I can see has a target of $0.16 - which is pretty much where price is.Not in the generally bullish environment at the moment so I am very cautious as to what sectors and which specific stocks I look for when it comes to breakouts.
Some bullish themes still exist within sub-sectors of the market. We've had the Uranium rally very recently but it took off so abruptly I didn't get a chance to make a dime from any breakout stocks. So I was looking at similar themes. Oil and Gas stocks have been gathering pace as well but I missed the straight up rallies of the majors such as WPL, OSH and one of my good old favourites that's been in the speculative portfolio BPT
So I looked further down the ladder to find smaller Oil and Gas explorers/producers to find something that is in it's infancy of breaking out i.e. still under the radar. Found the profitable little company Byron Energy Ltd (BYE) trading at single digit P/E's. Decided to take a short term trade to see if it's price action catches up to resemble those big stock charts just mentioned. As it's of a short term nature I won't bother journaling it in my portfolio thread.
With a bit of effort using googly eyes, it's also possible to see a nice rounded bottom and a cup and handle pattern leading up to the breakout as well.
How will I manage the above trade ?
I shall follow the price action with a trailing stop. Therefore exit at a profit if the breakout advances higher and higher following it up with the trailing stop or cut the loss if it breaks below the trailing stop.
Yes, good analysis @Greynomad99 , as I said I would have preferred one of the more liquid blue chip Oil/Gas stocks to trade. But they've just run up too far, too fast for my liking. Will be watching them for a retracement.I don't have any problem with your logic and hope BYE works for you, but I've always shyed away from those low value stocks that can be illiquid. As soon as I see that 'blocky' daily chart pattern - I move on. There are resistance levels all over the shop with BYE but the one I'd be watching is exactly where price has peaked - $0.155. I can also see what you mean about the C&H pattern but for me it doesn't quite fit the profile I'd be looking for. The small pattern I can see has a target of $0.16 - which is pretty much where price is.
That said, the stock is coming off a significant low - possibly a Wave 2 now rising into Wave 3 in Elliott Wave terms, but a wave count with BYE also needs a fair helping of wishful thinking. Price has recently made an uptrend , broken above a weekly downtrend and making higher weekly troughs and peaks - all of which are buy signals.
One the negative side, resistance at $0.155 may turn price down but overall I'd say the odds fasvour price continuing its upward progress.
Good luck with it.
PS: In your opening line I think you meant 'bearish' not 'bullish' environment.
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