Outstanding Breakout Alerts!

[Sean K]

Could be old news to some of you, but lately I've noticed airline and travel related stocks seem to be coming out of the doom and gloom: QAN, FLT, WEB etc. Maybe the vaccine rollout is putting the possibility of holidays and travel back on the agenda. Stocks in this space are making intermediate high's and breaking to the upside, here's another example:

Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO) with accompanying volume:

View attachment 129781

I like FLT as a long term pick. $14 established as a medium term floor and had a nice recent jump breaking downward trend since $20 in Mar. Will one day get back to it's highs you'd think.

Not sure about QAN. GG says the unions are lousy.

 

[Sean K]

Just following up on AZS. Had two good days up to 40c and then profit taking came in. Support at 30c respected. Would have been a nice in and out.

View attachment 129610

Further follow up - AZS formed a nice little pennant and has broken up.

 

[tech/a]

The Buy was on the High volume bar 3 days ago
The next bar was a blow off top and Id expect today to be down
at worst and An inside day at best. A Buy if you had it at .06 would have been
ideal. As for exit a stop at break even now and see how it pans.
Late entries mean more stress and often shorter holds. (time wise). but if you
catch a runaway train its worth it.

Just had another quick look at this.
Its looking good right here with a low that may act as support
Volume is decreasing in the tight consolidation.
The low is an obvious stop.
A blast through the high would be strongly positive.
A failure of any test of the low -- negative.

Some nice Charts Kennas!

 

[aus_trader]

I like FLT as a long term pick. $14 established as a medium term floor and had a nice recent jump breaking downward trend since $20 in Mar. Will one day get back to it's highs you'd think.

Not sure about QAN. GG says the unions are lousy.

View attachment 129791

Agree, I am still cautious about QAN because of the unions can have their hands around the neck of companies. I remember they managed to ground the entire Qantas fleet when they cracked Alan Joyce's shell by putting constant pressure on the running of the business, that was in an environment without Covid.

Not as bad in NZ, although small industry bodies might pose a small resistance. I hold Air New Zealand Limited (AIZ) in Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio

 

[divs4ever]

one of the reasons i used to read the ILU and BHP reports so closely

some companies have a very solid handle on what is happening in the future ( mid-term/long-term ) and let's face it they really do need to be able to see over the horizon ( or in Kerry Packer's case , make events happen )

now of course some companies have very little chance of getting such forecasting correct , say insurance companies , but that is the business they are in ( not a bad thing if you adapt your investing activities to suit )

mind you , you will have to watch closely to see if the WEF get the Great Reset , they desire ( it MIGHT go very pear-shaped ) they have created the problem , but will the masses tolerate the solution ??

 

[divs4ever]

Agree, I am still cautious about QAN because of the unions can have their hands around the neck of companies. I remember they managed to ground the entire Qantas fleet when they cracked Alan Joyce's shell by putting constant pressure on the running of the business, that was in an environment without Covid.

Not as bad in NZ, although small industry bodies might pose a small resistance. I hold Air New Zealand Limited (AIZ) in Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio

remember AIZ is majority owned by the NZ government , which wasn't a bad thing until the last election over there

( am calmly looking for the exit on AIZ .. partly on the plane durability problems that were occurring before the virus clown-show )

 

[aus_trader]

Few breakouts as of Friday's close on the Aussie market...

CTT:



Normally gaps get filled in, but FZO hasn't looked back since gaping up on huge volume:



GOZ:



Note: Tread carefully if trading this stock as it's approaching All-Time-High (ATH) resistance. Not sure if it'll act as a ceiling or if the stock has sufficient momentum to break through...

GOZ weekly, all data:



Now to a stock that I came across that has gapped up on volume, probably more in the bottom fishing category than outstanding category, but I'll post for those interested.

WHK:

 

[KevinBB]

Hello everyone.

Just wondering ... those of you who use breakout systems, when doing your analysis, do you adjust pre ex-div date prices for dividends paid by these companies? If not, how do you handle oversized dividend payments in the breakout analysis, such as when the banks were paying 5%+, or the current high dividends for some mining companies?

Thanks,

KH

 

[Greynomad99]

Hello everyone.

Just wondering ... those of you who use breakout systems, when doing your analysis, do you adjust pre ex-div date prices for dividends paid by these companies? If not, how do you handle oversized dividend payments in the breakout analysis, such as when the banks were paying 5%+, or the current high dividends for some mining companies?

Thanks,

KH

For me, I don't adjust prices as the dividend will be factored into the share price and the resulting pattern and while the price might drop a little when the stock goes ex-dividend it doesn't change the price of the calculated target. It's the shape of the pattern and volume, not just a break above a resistance level that determines whether price will spike to a target. Like all tradeable patterns, a resistance break needs to have certain characteristics - like a typical cup and handle pattern for example (which is just a resistance break by another name).

 

[divs4ever]

i do , especially if buying ex-div. , but my path is usually the contrarian one

i work on a theory that some will over-pay chasing that div. ( doesn't always happen , but it can happen , especially when the buyer believes the company will continue to grow strongly )

 

[KevinBB]

For me, I don't adjust prices

i do , especially if buying ex-div.

Ok, thanks for the two differing views.

When doing manual (spreadsheet) price analysis in the past I've always tried to adjust for dividends. It is possible, but time consuming.

I ask because sometimes the source of ex-div dates can be unreliable. I'll look for a reliable source.

KH

 

[divs4ever]

during last year even div. payment ( how much cash goes into your bank account ) was unreliable ,

that MIGHT happen again , now a recent precedent is set

 

[KevinBB]

Sorry, didn't mean to take over the thread, but briefly, what I am looking at is a price based breakout, but a little longer term than most that I've seen so far in this forum. So, being purely price based, any largish dividend will affect the breakout trigger (just look at FMG today).

Cash going into the bank account is a bonus, but should, in theory, make up for the capital loss on the ex-div date (I mark-to-market each day).

Thanks again for the feedback.
KH

 

[Greynomad99]

Sorry, didn't mean to take over the thread, but briefly, what I am looking at is a price based breakout, but a little longer term than most that I've seen so far in this forum. So, being purely price based, any largish dividend will affect the breakout trigger (just look at FMG today).

Cash going into the bank account is a bonus, but should, in theory, make up for the capital loss on the ex-div date (I mark-to-market each day).

Thanks again for the feedback.
KH

Not quite sure what you mean. Looking at FMG there is no breakout or potential breakout I can see anywhere near current price action.

 

[Greynomad99]

Just looking at todays stock movements and VUL has shown a potential break if it can close above today's high. Potential target of $16.30 is only about a 12% gain on today's close so the risk reward equation is a bit tight - but it has my attention.

 

[Greynomad99]

Gold is another interesting potential breakout. It could signal a bit of a revival in interest in the gold miners like NCN, EVN and NST - all of which I hold and all of which jumped today.

 

[Joe Blow]

Gold is another interesting potential breakout.

Just wanted to jump in here and let everyone (especially those who are new) know that there is a separate thread for potential breakouts titled Potential Breakout Alerts! and for those interested in the short side there is Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts! and the rarely used Potential Breakdown Alerts.

So there's a breakout and breakdown thread for every occasion. Please feel free to post in one of those threads if it is more appropriate.

 

[Greynomad99]

Just wanted to jump in here and let everyone (especially those who are new) know that there is a separate thread for potential breakouts titled Potential Breakout Alerts! and for those interested in the short side there is Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts! and the rarely used Potential Breakdown Alerts.

So there's a breakout and breakdown thread for every occasion. Please feel free to post in one of those threads if it is more appropriate.

OK - BreakDOWN - didn't see that and wondered why there were 2 breakout threads. Comes from only trading long I guess - you forget about the other side of the equation. Can my posts in the short thread be moved to the other thread please?

 

[Greynomad99]

Not quite sure what you mean. Looking at FMG there is no breakout or potential breakout I can see anywhere near current price action.

Yes - now that I see you were looking at a break down (not up) there is a resistance break on FMG. I'll watch it to see if price goes a bit lower to $18.00 where I would normally see the target of the break being (if I was ignoring the impact of the stock going ex-dividend). Yes in these circumstances where a dividend drops the price materially I'd say it probably does impact on the viability of the resistance break. But as I don't trade short it isn't something I've ever had to worry about before.

 

[aus_trader]

Mostly a down market in most sectors, but there was a late rally before close.

Interesting to see a long and short fund breaking out...

LSF:



FFX:


Disc: Hold 1/2 of position, having sold 1/2 for a profit in Speculative Stock Portfolio.

A bottom feeder in BNPL space, that's bobbing it's head up...

IOU: