Outstanding Breakout Alerts!

[panikhide]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

1000% in 3 days.........where's that time machine when you need it

BTW here's a 5 year chart, looks like it's done it before.

cheers

For those who are interested - a follow-up on BioPharmica Limited (BPH). It has now dropped back to 0.175 after hitting highs of 0.40 last week.

 

[Sweet Synergy]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Sorry I can't post a chart from this computer but EGO is breaking a nice ascending triangle consolidation this afternoon on outstanding volume.

 

[enigmatic]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Sorry still not certain what the difference of Outstanding breakout and potential.

So here is GCR which i think comes under Outstanding..

 

[adobee]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Anyone checking out ABY .. substanial break out alert .. will get chart up shortly..

 

[bowman]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

SSC seems to be behaving well since the breakout spike 5 days ago.

Has been making higher lows since then and the minimal volume in the last three days suggests those on board realise the potential here if the mine approval process is completed sucessfully.

I've been daytrading it since the breakout except for yesterday, when I added some more to my pre breakout holdings.

Chart snapshot just before 11 am and is now down a tick.

 

[explod]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

I think from the potential 2 days ago we are into the outstanding today and volume is doubling each day too. Coaking coal in indonesia, from sea food, you figure it but someone certainly likes it. Maybe good coal nearer to China could be a factor.

 

[STRAT]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

In the last hour

 

[cooper1308]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

SAR

Massive sidewards accumulation on big volume over the last 6 months

Wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of insto money jumps on board once they begin production (gold) in 6 months.

 

[tech/a]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Had a bit of a look at both threads to see how things turned out walking forward with those stocks ticked for a Breakout Alert or Potential Alert.
While not an exhaustive study the Breakout Alerts appeared to be the more successful.

Id have thought there would have been more interest and suggestions in the "Better Breakout Trading Thread" given the interest in these 2 threads.

Still --- will continue with my own investigation into what makes a breakout continue or fail (Past history-characteristics of the breakout-false breakouts and their future roll-volume,its roll,gaps their roll,range of breakout bars/bars,their roll,where the breakout occurs (at a consolidation top or bottom,lengths of consolidations,their roll)etc).

 

[Sean K]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Had a bit of a look at both threads to see how things turned out walking forward with those stocks ticked for a Breakout Alert or Potential Alert.
While not an exhaustive study the Breakout Alerts appeared to be the more successful.

I would have thought this thread was more successful because the stocks had already broken out.

The idea of the potential thread was to create a watch list of things that were heading towards breakout and either take a position in anticipation and manage the trade, or watch it closely so that you could enter as the stock was breaking out gaining maximum exposure to the break. Many of the outstanding breakouts were being called too far after the fact, thus missing the upside. The very nature of the potential thread meant that a stock was coming up to significant resistance and thus, there was a probability it would fail.

I think your other thread will gain traction tech.

 

[explod]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

I would have thought this thread was more successful because the stocks had already broken out.

The idea of the potential thread was to create a watch list of things that were heading towards breakout and either take a position in anticipation and manage the trade, or watch it closely so that you could enter as the stock was breaking out gaining maximum exposure to the break. Many of the outstanding breakouts were being called too far after the fact, thus missing the upside. The very nature of the potential thread meant that a stock was coming up to significant resistance and thus, there was a probability it would fail.

I think your other thread will gain traction tech.

Yes Kennas, a bit of a connundrum, the Potential is a hard one, the moment a stock is in the Potential zone, e.g volume and prise rise) it is really a breakout. I posted one early last week as potential, but was really out of the box, and two days later re-posted the same one on the Outstanding.

I have many stocks on watch lists that to me are all potentials but as soon as they break one needs to get into it there and then.

Just my two bobs

 

[tech/a]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

I would have thought this thread was more successful because the stocks had already broken out.

The idea of the potential thread was to create a watch list of things that were heading towards breakout and either take a position in anticipation and manage the trade, or watch it closely so that you could enter as the stock was breaking out gaining maximum exposure to the break. Many of the outstanding breakouts were being called too far after the fact, thus missing the upside. The very nature of the potential thread meant that a stock was coming up to significant resistance and thus, there was a probability it would fail.

I think your other thread will gain traction tech.

Kennas
Looking at past performance of those stocks which were earmarked as potentials and those that were Breakouts in their own right (not seen as a potential breakouts) it was/is clear that you'll have a far more profitable method trading those which HAVE broken out than watch listing those that may breakout.

Resistance seems to me to be a poor indicator of a Potential Breakout threat of failure.
But a better indicator for future support!
I would have thought momentum/support leading to an old high would have indicated more potential than a limitation such as simple resistance?

FLX as an example

 

[Sean K]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Resistance seems to me to be a poor indicator of a Potential Breakout threat of failure.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean tech.

To me the term resistance implies a stock has come up against a point which has previously been a stopping point. The more times a stock has reversed from that line, the more resistance, and the more outstanding a breakout will be.

How can a stock 'breakout' if there's no resistance?

You seem to be implying the importance of volume. Of course.

Must be combined with S&R surely?

 

[bowman]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

I guess we all have different methods for finding either, 'breakout' stocks or 'potential breakout' stocks. Scanning for price and volume (and other parameters) is the obvious one.

I tend to mostly use a real time feature in Phoenix charts which lists the days top 100 movers by:

1. %gain
2. volume
3. value

So by repeatedly going through this list during the day I can identify and select:

1. Stocks which have, or are in the process of breaking out.
2. Stocks which are approaching resistance or are in some kind of consolidation pattern and are potential breakout stocks.

In other words I find 'potential' and 'breakouts' by the same process and tend to trade both according to my 'system'.
(Watching the ASX announcements is the other method which I use to daytrade speccie miners which spike on positive announcements).

Also I do not rely solely on technical analysis to determine how to trade, position sizing. risk etc.

For example two recent stocks which spiked on announcements were SSC and GDA and I initially traded both of them on the day of the announcement.

The nature of the announcements then helped me determine where to focus my subsequent trading attention.

GDA spiked on a single good rock chip sample, while SSC announced their intention to proceed from explorer to producer. In the following days I turned my attention to SSc and put GDA on the backburner - a decision which so far I'm more than happy with.

 

[tech/a]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

I'm not exactly sure what you mean tech.

To me the term resistance implies a stock has come up against a point which has previously been a stopping point. The more times a stock has reversed from that line, the more resistance, and the more outstanding a breakout will be.

How can a stock 'breakout' if there's no resistance?

You seem to be implying the importance of volume. Of course.

Must be combined with S&R surely?

Classifying a stock as a potential breakout on the basis that its at resistance or close to it is a poor method of identification as a STAND ALONE criteria.
Resistance wins more often than not.
However there are strong citeria which when added to analysis of price at or near resistance can give better qualification to "Potential Breakouts".

The best qualification IS a BREAKOUT.
The necessity of getting on before a breakout isnt worth the massive watchlist in my opinion.
Just trade the breakouts! (those qualified by other analysis criteria).

 

[Sean K]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Classifying a stock as a potential breakout on the basis that its at resistance or close to it is a poor method of identification as a STAND ALONE criteria.
Resistance wins more often than not.
However there are strong citeria which when added to analysis of price at or near resistance can give better qualification to "Potential Breakouts".

The best qualification IS a BREAKOUT.
The necessity of getting on before a breakout isnt worth the massive watchlist in my opinion.
Just trade the breakouts! (those qualified by other analysis criteria).

Yes, I agree, and the thread seems to have been poorly managed.

I think one of my original criteria was for a stock to be approaching resistance on volume, but it was lost.

Do you think that approaching significant resistance, on volume, would be a better criteria? Or, just that it has to have broken first?

Is there any purpose at all in identifying stocks aproaching significant long term resistance?

 

[tech/a]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Yes, I agree, and the thread seems to have been poorly managed.

I think one of my original criteria was for a stock to be approaching resistance on volume, but it was lost.

Strangely this can work for and against a successful breakout.
Massive volume is worse than Good volume.The following day holds the key.
Massive volume followed by a down day is very weak!

Do you think that approaching significant resistance, on volume, would be a better criteria? Or, just that it has to have broken first?

Really the only thing that doesnt help is Massive volume.Poor volume is actually better!

Is there any purpose at all in identifying stocks aproaching significant long term resistance?

Yes of course. but better to know

(1) Where the resistance is. At an accumulating bottom of some width or an accumulating pause in an up move already underway.
(2) Is it a single bar resistance or a channel of resistance or a Zone of resistance or VOLUME resistance.
(3) Has VOLUME resistance been exhausted within the resistance ZONE.

Massive volume on a breakout can strongly indicate a potential false breakout. One on low volume can indicate the exact opposite!

Well thats what I have found.

This discussion should be in the better breakouts thread.
If someone wants to move it.

 

[Boggo]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

My worth on the subject.

In a strong uptrending market resistance is just an area where you may get an opportunity to buy at a lower price.

Resistance is just resistance, not the point where a 'good' stock is going to just stop.

My simple breakout system "Alert Arrows" on MCR chart below with two of those arrows being 'potential' breakout alerts.

The only real resistance on that chart is the bar colour change to yellow or orange which is a form of 'overbought' indication.
Any other perceived resistance is just a minor impediment to the overall trend.
I work on a simple KISS principle, has it got the potential to breakout and resume the overall trend, if yes then it is a "potential breakout"

(click to expand)

 

[Sean K]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Agree with all the above in regard to potential and breakouts.

It's just hard to manage when you are a volunteer in another time zone and have another life. Sort of.

Thanks for the comments!

Will try to add to your Better Breakout thread tech.

 

[Kryzz]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

Centro broke out of some resistance little while back, now consolidating, good volume too, gap fill target $5.50 anyone?: