OSH - Oil Search

BSD said:

Not true.

The value prescribed to the monetisation of the PNG gas by way of pipeline or other options in the Macquarie model is above $1.00 of the $4.85 valuation.

You are still getting all the gas for free at the moment, so it remains a stunning deal, but the existing operations are not worth $4.85.


Any colour able to be added to the Chevron comments?

Volume has been excellent and the price resilient against falling oil price - but I haven't heard anyone mentioning Chevron.

1.1 billion on issue - 5% will be 55m shares. They must be close if they are "buying all they can get their hands on"

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......You said the present operations are not worth $4.85....another word you are more clever than the millionairs factory Mcquarie...you make me laugh....its in fact worth a lot more..why...Osh found oil in Egypt now...and look how much they make..I noticed the first sale went through at $3.72////.....see it go woooosh today....and oil will be heading back in price..to US $100...maybe even more...you will see...OSH s value is more like $8...in my book...

I am glad I make you laugh, muppet.

According to the valuation model layed out on the back page of the Macquarie note from 3rd October 2006 - the $4.85 value is broken down as such:

Kutubu $0.93
Moran $0.94
Gobe $0.09
Hides $0.04
Nabrajah $0.12
Mananda $0.19
Juha $0.14
PNG GAS PIPELINE $0.45
Capitalised G&A -$0.18

Group NPV $3.65

Discovered Undeveloped $1.25
Other Uncontracted Gas $0.62

Target Price $4.85

So, the $4.85 contains $0.45 for the pipeline and another $1.87 for other gas reserves.

The first sale today was nowhere near $3.72 - that may have been the top bid in the match, it certainly didnt trade at $3.72

Listening to your rants has probably put people off buying this great stock

Do your homework.

chicken said:

......You said the present operations are not worth $4.85....another word you are more clever than the millionairs factory Mcquarie...you make me laugh....its in fact worth a lot more..why...Osh found oil in Egypt now...and look how much they make..I noticed the first sale went through at $3.72////.....see it go woooosh today....and oil will be heading back in price..to US $100...maybe even more...you will see...OSH s value is more like $8...in my book...

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A woooooosh day for OSH today.....price of oil UP, price of gas Up.....OSH reving its engine...told you so..Chicken does it again...LOLOLOLOLO

Actually all major oil stocks go up at this time of the year as it's the cyclical pattern so for the next 3 months it looks good. Some oil stocks will outperform others though. As for OSH i'm watching on the sidelines until this time next year because from this time next year and within 3 years thereafter OSH's production will most likely go up 4 fold but until then I'll be watching,.

major resources and oil companies all come off of late.

market has risen however.... it will swing...

Found OIL in Egypt....OSH 1/2 share in this find see news out.....

chicken said:

Found OIL in Egypt....OSH 1/2 share in this find see news out.....

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Any reason it's heading down? Apart from the lower oil price that is.

Is it just me or is OSH looking like a good buy?

Cheers

PS: Chicken, we already know what you think

The Mint Man said:

Is it just me or is OSH looking like a good buy?

Cheers

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Yes, it does. Resistance at 3.40 though. Brilliant news moves it one step forward, a minute drop in oil price moves it two steps back.

In order of pure Oil and gas plays

Does it go:

Woodside
Santos
Oilsearch

Anyone jump on them at $3.26 for a cheeky profit for when they hit $3.40 again?

Anyone got some 12 month price targets for this one? Or is it Macquarie $4.85?

The Mint Man said:

Is it just me or is OSH looking like a good buy?

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I don't think so. It might be when it gets to around the green circle. Will then have cleared some short term resistance and reached a new high. Couldn't possibly say it's in an uptrend right now.

I bought this at $0.60 a little while ago and sold those at about $3.00. Re-entered at about $3.50 about 12 months ago and am a bit disappointed in it now. Great long term potential, but looks tenuous at the moment. I will sell if it breaks down through $3.00 again and put my $$ to use elsewhere.

If PNG goes well will it head towards the $5 mark?

The graphs tells a story. Whats behind the graph going up and down is more important.

OSH to go boom... cause i bought some at 3.26 last trade of the day....

hehe

Ken said:

If PNG goes well will it head towards the $5 mark?

The graphs tells a story. Whats behind the graph going up and down is more important.

OSH to go boom... cause i bought some at 3.26 last trade of the day....

hehe

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Well, I hope it goes to $10 Ken, but it may be 2010.

Good luck, I hope you've got the bottom!

i'll take $10 a share by 2010.

will take $4 a share in by 2008 too.

Ken said:

If PNG goes well will it head towards the $5 mark?

The graphs tells a story. Whats behind the graph going up and down is more important.

OSH to go boom... cause i bought some at 3.26 last trade of the day....

hehe

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Ken why are you always bullish in your posts? More curious than anything else!

Another perspective:

Exploration Upside, Attractive Valuation Make Oil Search A Buy
FN Arena News - December 05 2006

By Chris Shaw

Last week Barclays Capital suggested technical indicators for the oil price were turning positive and both the oil price and stocks in the sector subsequently rallied somewhat from recent lows.

Woodside Petroleum (WPL) has managed to hold onto most of its gains but the same cannot be said for Oil Search (OSH), which has fallen back towards the $3.25 price level the Tech Wizard suggests is key from a technical standpoint.

Morgan Stanley has also looked as Oil Search at this level and reached the conclusion, technicals notwithstanding, the shares are cheap. The broker has an Overweight rating and $4.20 price target on the stock, as in its view the risk is biased to the upside.

The broker's valuation stands at $3.62, though at an absolute minimum it sees a base of $2.73 assuming nil value for the company's gas assets and no exploration success. Exploration will potentially be a feature in the coming year as the company has 17 appraisal wells planned in Papua New Guinea and 30 wells planned in the Middle East and North Africa, the largest program in its history.

Assuming both some exploration success and development of the gas assets the broker can generate a valuation of $5.75, which is suggestive of the upside potential in the stock. It sees the gas operations as now looking far healthier as it notes the company is exploring a number of options in terms of delivery of its PNG gas reserves, including LNG, urea and methanol. At the same time it suggests little value is being ascribed to the gas assets, which in reserves terms are 10 times as big as the company's oil reserves.

Funding for the extensive exploration program and development of the gas operations should not be an issue, as on the broker's numbers the company has around $650m of cash reserves on its balance sheet.

While there is upside from future exploration the existing operations have been somewhat disappointing, prompting Aspect Huntley to recently downgrade the stock to Hold from Accumulate. Morgan Stanley has taken this into consideration, cutting its earnings estimates for the current year to 25c per share from 29c and in 2007 to 19c from 23c.

Other brokers recently made similar adjustments to forecasts, but the FNArena database shows the average price target on the stock is $4.21, which is well above the current market price.

In the database Oil Search is rated as Buy seven times and Neutral twice, so Morgan Stanley's optimistic outlook is a fairly common view. This has not helped the shares today though, as Oil Search has fallen following a drop in the oil price overnight. As at $3.10pm the shares were down 6c at $3.27.

I am bullish on the stocks i have an interest in or am looking at buying.

I dont go short on any stocks. So I guess i am just venting where i feel the stock is heading.

I am long term investor. So not looking for overnight success.

Maybe a couple i have got a bit carried away.

I currently hold so i see this going up or getting a good return from.

COE
RCO
BHP
OSH
FDL
AXT
RRT
SEL
TLS 3

I have no interest in stocks going down i guess......

Ken said:

I am bullish on the stocks i have an interest in or am looking at buying.

I dont go short on any stocks. So I guess i am just venting where i feel the stock is heading.

I am long term investor. So not looking for overnight success.

Maybe a couple i have got a bit carried away.

I currently hold so i see this going up or getting a good return from.

COE
RCO
BHP
OSH
FDL
AXT
RRT
SEL
TLS 3

I have no interest in stocks going down i guess......

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Dumped bhp on open after holding overnight! In the same boat on fdl, graph looks like it could run anytime but it has a fair barrier to get thru. Thought you were in gdn and sen as well?

nope not in gdn and sen.

FDL and COE are my only specs

BHP, OSH, COE, RCO, RRT, T3, SEL (to MFS) i hold long term.

Im most likely to get in today, or at least before weeks end.
I have done plenty of research so chicken will be happy with me I have read and watched their announcements and was most impressed with their programe for next year as Kennas's post suggests

Exploration will potentially be a feature in the coming year as the company has 17 appraisal wells planned in Papua New Guinea and 30 wells planned in the Middle East and North Africa, the largest program in its history.

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I noticed that they didnt mention that OSH has (from memory) 2 more rigs coming on line next year to cope with the extra work load, one in the first half of 2007 and one later on in the year. So it looks to me that they are steaming ahead in 2007.
I am looking at these long term, 2010, so Im glad that year has been mentioned by a couple of you....

cheers