OSH - Oil Search
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Sean K
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Looks like this might have been a buying op.
0953 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: GSJBW says PNG Gas project is likely to proceed "albeit at a lower confidence level." Broker is advising AGL (AGL.AU) in merger with Alinta (ALN.AU). Says PNG project contributes about 50-70 cents to AGL valuation. Oil Search (OSH.AU) dived yesterday as AGL warned about its commitment to PNG pipeline that will deliver gas to Australian customers. (IGP)
0953 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: GSJBW says PNG Gas project is likely to proceed "albeit at a lower confidence level." Broker is advising AGL (AGL.AU) in merger with Alinta (ALN.AU). Says PNG project contributes about 50-70 cents to AGL valuation. Oil Search (OSH.AU) dived yesterday as AGL warned about its commitment to PNG pipeline that will deliver gas to Australian customers. (IGP)
i just read an article that states Macquarie Research as having a $4.95 target price. it's quite to comprehend this but then again, it's just a price target... just think it'd be interesting for those who follow OSH.
http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliWarrantsPage.asp?PageID={DF3B939C-96E2-4220-B2F0-837B87B07A1B}
http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliWarrantsPage.asp?PageID={DF3B939C-96E2-4220-B2F0-837B87B07A1B}
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I noticed OSH has a PE of 5 or so. Doesn't anyone else think that's very low?
Sean K
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yeah, 5.4 in the Fin this am. Surely errors.........
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The half yearly report shows earnings for the 6 Months of US33.2c/Shr equivalent to AUS43.6c/Shr.
Current SP of $3.32 gives a PE of 3.8 for the 6 months.
However, US22.9c was attributable to abnormal items, namely the sale of asssets to AGL.
The actual profit for the 6 months from ongoing operations was US10.3c. If profit for the second half is similar to the first half, but excluding the abnormal items, this will give them first half 33.2 + second half 10.3 = US43.5c/Shr, equivalent to AUS57.2c/Shr & a PE of 5.8.
Excluding abnormal items entirely, profit for the year from ongoing operations would theoretically be 10.3+10.3=US20.6/Shr, equivalent to AUS27.1c/Shr & a PE of 12.2
Hope this makes sense.
Current SP of $3.32 gives a PE of 3.8 for the 6 months.
However, US22.9c was attributable to abnormal items, namely the sale of asssets to AGL.
The actual profit for the 6 months from ongoing operations was US10.3c. If profit for the second half is similar to the first half, but excluding the abnormal items, this will give them first half 33.2 + second half 10.3 = US43.5c/Shr, equivalent to AUS57.2c/Shr & a PE of 5.8.
Excluding abnormal items entirely, profit for the year from ongoing operations would theoretically be 10.3+10.3=US20.6/Shr, equivalent to AUS27.1c/Shr & a PE of 12.2
Hope this makes sense.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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dubiousinfo said:
I see it as Foward Terminal PE of 10
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 24.3 28.9 28.3 21.5
DPS 9.5 9.6 8.1 9.1
So its worth $2.20 atm
thx
ms
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michael_selway said:
The earnings forecast of 28.9c for 2006 would appear to be incorrect. OSH has just reported a profit for the 6 months to 30 June 2006 of US33.2c/Shr equivalent to AUS43.6c/Shr.
The only way they will report EPS of 28.9c for the full year is if they make a loss of 14.7c for the 2nd half year to Dec 2006, which I cant see happening.
Sean K
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kennas said:Well, $2.20 looks on the cards atm.
I'm long term oil, so holding.
Anyone else been spooked the past month?
Glad I only a few K in this atm....
Not exactly spooked, seriously burnt on BPT & ROC, was looking at OSH also.
I bought into BPT at the POR of 1.56 and had them to run and certain of it. The correction came and I got stopped on both, (5%) and lost 3k on each.
Still not sure when to re-enter these two, especially like BPT but it hasn't rebounded for over a week. Not to sure if their is still a bit more downside in the oilers at the moment, before an educated entry can be picked.
Hope you are right. Sold at $2.20 more than a year ago and have been waiting to buy back cheaper ever since. Is the gas pipeline a dream?kennas said:Well, $2.20 looks on the cards atm.
I'm long term oil, so holding.
Anyone else been spooked the past month?
Glad I only a few K in this atm....
Sean K
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nioka said:
Once Santos pull their finger out and put some cash on the table, it should boost OSH considerably. I don't think it's a dream.
We'll know soon if the pipeline is dead, fingers crossed...
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,20441040-3122,00.html
But they have alot of cash and I'm sure they'll do something else with it.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,20441040-3122,00.html
But they have alot of cash and I'm sure they'll do something else with it.
Sean K
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scsl said:
scsl, Could be an option but I'm just going to hold. I haven't enough conviction in the short term direction of oil. I'm long term bullish, so best I just hold.
Sean K
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Hopefully with POI and this news, OSH can start making a comeback.
From 'The Age' this am:
A new, shorter design is being considered for the proposed Papua New Guinea-Australia natural gas pipeline that could keep the project alive, Paul Botten, managing director of Oil Search Ltd has said.
"I am actually reasonably optimistic in this as a way forward," Botten told reporters on the sidelines of Merrill Lynch's Australian investment conference in New York.
The new pipeline plan emerged after a week of discussions with several potential partners, Botten said. It trims about 400 kilometres from a previous design.
The new line would bring the Papua New Guinea gas produced by Oil Search to Moomba, a distribution hub in central Australia, through a connection with existing lines between Mt. Isa and Moomba, according to Botten.
He declined to comment on the cost estimates of a pared-down line versus the $US3.5 billion ($A4.7 billion) cost forecast for the original project.
The previous plan hit a roadblock last month when Australian Gas Light Co, the project's chief architect, said it might pull out due to a lack of firm buyers for the gas amid rising construction costs.
Companies involved in the project will be considering the new design over the coming weeks, Botten said.
Australian Gas Chief Executive Officer Paul Anthony told reporters approval by the pipeline's partners, including Exxon Mobil Corp, was not imminent.
"It's a significant change to the original plan, so they are going to take some time," he told reporters.
Although the new plan would not require constructing a new pipeline the entire distance to Moomba, it would force other pipelines that would be used to upgrade their facilities.
Australian Gas is responsible for designing and building the pipeline with Malaysian partner Petronas and has committed to buying about 40 per cent of the gas.
From 'The Age' this am:
A new, shorter design is being considered for the proposed Papua New Guinea-Australia natural gas pipeline that could keep the project alive, Paul Botten, managing director of Oil Search Ltd has said.
"I am actually reasonably optimistic in this as a way forward," Botten told reporters on the sidelines of Merrill Lynch's Australian investment conference in New York.
The new pipeline plan emerged after a week of discussions with several potential partners, Botten said. It trims about 400 kilometres from a previous design.
The new line would bring the Papua New Guinea gas produced by Oil Search to Moomba, a distribution hub in central Australia, through a connection with existing lines between Mt. Isa and Moomba, according to Botten.
He declined to comment on the cost estimates of a pared-down line versus the $US3.5 billion ($A4.7 billion) cost forecast for the original project.
The previous plan hit a roadblock last month when Australian Gas Light Co, the project's chief architect, said it might pull out due to a lack of firm buyers for the gas amid rising construction costs.
Companies involved in the project will be considering the new design over the coming weeks, Botten said.
Australian Gas Chief Executive Officer Paul Anthony told reporters approval by the pipeline's partners, including Exxon Mobil Corp, was not imminent.
"It's a significant change to the original plan, so they are going to take some time," he told reporters.
Although the new plan would not require constructing a new pipeline the entire distance to Moomba, it would force other pipelines that would be used to upgrade their facilities.
Australian Gas is responsible for designing and building the pipeline with Malaysian partner Petronas and has committed to buying about 40 per cent of the gas.
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The prices of natural gas has been dropping for the last 3 to 4 months to very low levels, I can't remember the exact numbers but I was in the US this week and saw this article in the first page of The Wall Street Journal about an investment group that have lost more than $5bn in the last month from investment in natural gas companies, no very inspiring I would say.
So the question is, have all these problems with this pipeline have happened because of this natural gas dropping prices? is the project still viable of is just a I have to do to prove myself (Oil Search)
WBII
So the question is, have all these problems with this pipeline have happened because of this natural gas dropping prices? is the project still viable of is just a I have to do to prove myself (Oil Search)
WBII
OSH oversold
bought at $3.03.....got a 7cents div. ex 25thSeptember...and stock is rising...this is worth $4+....when I bought it had a PE of 3.....now how stupid are the sellers?.....had a write up in Smart Investor....Load up the truck...that is what I say
bought at $3.03.....got a 7cents div. ex 25thSeptember...and stock is rising...this is worth $4+....when I bought it had a PE of 3.....now how stupid are the sellers?.....had a write up in Smart Investor....Load up the truck...that is what I say
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Re: OSH oversold
How did u get PE of 3?
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 24.3 28.9 28.2 21.2
DPS 9.5 11.4 11.0 11.0
thx
MS
chicken said:bought at $3.03.....got a 7cents div. ex 25thSeptember...and stock is rising...this is worth $4+....when I bought it had a PE of 3.....now how stupid are the sellers?.....had a write up in Smart Investor....Load up the truck...that is what I say
How did u get PE of 3?
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 24.3 28.9 28.2 21.2
DPS 9.5 11.4 11.0 11.0
thx
MS
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