jackson-
i think it would be wise to say that nothing is written in concrete
when i look at some of the once were darlings such as aed and nxs it makes me realise that a fall from grace can happen very quickly , all it takes is one peice of bad news and not necessarily bad but unnerving for investors to flee in droves especially with present market conditions
i currently do hold some osh but what worries me are a few factors
1) the price of oil . what would be their bottom line before production costs are greater than returns.
2) declineing oilfeilds they hope to start lng production to pick up from the tail end of these and if production is delayed which lets face it happens all the time then cash flow could be affected
3) just the time period for this 5 years out , a lot can happen over that time frame
osh has seen a rapid growth in sp over last few years and i wonder if it is justified to continue that growth in the short to medium term given current circumstances
i dont want to be thought of as downramping but the share market can be very unforgiving at times
jackson,
final investment decision for PNG LNG is for later in 2009...
OSH have given every indication to the market that they will proceed... they have been selling African assets to fund their share of development costs...
I guess its just the slow steady derisking of this 'legacy' asset over time as production gets closer and closer...OSH is already bouncing off lows quickly...
they are proactive...
You cant even compare OSH to AED or NXS...
AED's problems were company specific (technical problems) that management did not know how to fix... OSH could have fixed it...
Oil Search are leaders for a reason... I have no doubt in my mind that this will progress smoothly...
When this takes off OSH will be trading around $20 bucks per share, based on tripled revenue estimates...
yeah there are some risks, as I said soverign risk is probably the biggest risk... but the expected return far outweighs the risks, so this is good risk return investment... my favourite big capped stock, and I dont usually like big capped stocks...
.^sc
I'm getting close to my stop loss - considering selling before I reach it. Selling now will leave me with a 5% profit.
I'm getting close to my stop loss - considering selling before I reach it. Selling now will leave me with a 5% profit.
Who knows! It's a worth doing research on at the moment.Is oil search a buy at the moment? Will it rise in the future?
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