ORL - OrotonGroup Limited
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Re: ORL- Oroton
it has been ages since anyone commented on the oroton Group. I'll give you a few reasons why ORL is good right now.
1. goes ex-dividend on 8th October - 25c fully franked (total of 41c for the year (current share prce $5.42)
2. sales revenue up 10.5% to 134 million
3. NPAT up 16.1% to 19.4 million
4. big plans for expansion
a fantastic effort considering the GFC
it has been ages since anyone commented on the oroton Group. I'll give you a few reasons why ORL is good right now.
1. goes ex-dividend on 8th October - 25c fully franked (total of 41c for the year (current share prce $5.42)
2. sales revenue up 10.5% to 134 million
3. NPAT up 16.1% to 19.4 million
4. big plans for expansion
a fantastic effort considering the GFC
Julia
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Agree. I've just had cash come through from a matured term deposit and will be buying some of this.
Was there something in particular that happened around 25/9 to cause that gap up?
Was there something in particular that happened around 25/9 to cause that gap up?
Julia
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Ah, thought that might be what it was. Thank you, Imajica.
I've just commented on this stock in the 'retirees' thread, on the basis that its target market is probably going to be relatively unaffected by budget constraints.
It has a good dividend too, at 7%, 100% franked.
I've just commented on this stock in the 'retirees' thread, on the basis that its target market is probably going to be relatively unaffected by budget constraints.
It has a good dividend too, at 7%, 100% franked.
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With how slow retail has been (according to the media) it will be interesting to see how ORL fares when it releases its half yearly report.
It thrived through the GFC so you'd expect it to do the same now. Although their latest update indicated a slow start to the financial year. This seems to have been offset by their encouraging start to the asian expansion.
Interesting times!!
It thrived through the GFC so you'd expect it to do the same now. Although their latest update indicated a slow start to the financial year. This seems to have been offset by their encouraging start to the asian expansion.
Interesting times!!
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Commsec has a forecast 16-17% growth this financial year and I would say that is about right. They also have a decrease in dividend payout - I don't think that is right. I mean, it would be great if they could hold on to the dividend and use that cash to grow but I don't think that is what will happen.
I too am looking forward to the mid year report. Only about a month to go
I too am looking forward to the mid year report. Only about a month to go
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Commsec has a forecast 16-17% growth this financial year and I would say that is about right. They also have a decrease in dividend payout - I don't think that is right. I mean, it would be great if they could hold on to the dividend and use that cash to grow but I don't think that is what will happen.
I too am looking forward to the mid year report. Only about a month to go
I have an IV of 12.85 for 2011 for Oroton going up to 17.19 in 2012.
It is on my list of stocks to buy.
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Woah, I think your future IVs are a little too hot (although I wish you were right). I can see that you are getting the massively increased IV from a lower payout ratio with Oroton's excellent ROE. I will tell you why I think that increase in IV won't happen:
Scenario 1 - payout ratio stays at about 86%
I see this is the more likely outcome. They don't need the money to pay back debt and opening new stores doesn't use up that much capital. They want to grow at a reasonable rate (which they have been for the last 3 years) with a high ROE. If they pay the shareholders a big wad of cash, they should be happy. There will be increasing value as well.
My forecast looks like this:
Year 2011 2012
EPS 65.5 75.6
DPS 54.0 61.0
Scenario 2 - payout ratio drops to 53%, as commsec forecasts
IF the payout ratio decreases then they will probably use that cash to pay down debt and use for future growth. This increases equity which, in turn, decreases ROE. Perhaps Sally has a magic trick up her sleeve? I could be wrong! My forecast, if they decrease the payout ratio is that ROE will drop to around 60%ish. Therefore, the IV won't be around the $13 mark, but it will be above $10.
In either scenario, I am holding - this company is being run so well! It is currently at a mild discount to IV so would be ok for a long term buy in my opinion.
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The price is up a bit today. Hehe, 76 buyers and 7 sellers.
Adrian Ezquerro wrote a piece in the Eureka report that was published last night praising the company. He values it above $10 based on last year's results with the value increasing over the next few years.
Still looks like a good buying opportunity, even now. I shall continue holding.
Adrian Ezquerro wrote a piece in the Eureka report that was published last night praising the company. He values it above $10 based on last year's results with the value increasing over the next few years.
Still looks like a good buying opportunity, even now. I shall continue holding.
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Interesting price action today - I attribute this solely to the stock being so thinly traded.
Whilst value investors like myself tend to ignore price changes in the short term, it is lovely to see it going up rather than down!
Whilst value investors like myself tend to ignore price changes in the short term, it is lovely to see it going up rather than down!
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Interesting price action today - I attribute this solely to the stock being so thinly traded.
Whilst value investors like myself tend to ignore price changes in the short term, it is lovely to see it going up rather than down!
Well not if you want to buy more it isn't
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Well not if you want to buy more it isn't
touche. However im fully invested in ORL at present, however I do see your point and would love to load up with more around the $6 - $7 level.
Seems like im waiting for about 10 stocks to drop at the moment...wheres the next GFC when you need it, right?
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Was considering selling ORL before the HY results came out as I was expecting horrible figures...lazily I didnt even know they were coming out today but here they are!
Profit is almost identical to first half of last year.
Management still talking about avoiding discounting to pursue long term sustainable brand image etc etc.
I am happy that the figures have held up this well in the current retail environment - unlike all the other retailers which have all downgraded or missed forecasts.
With the future prospects looking good for ORL, and the potential of a successful o/seas expansion, I am quite happy to continue holding.
Profit is almost identical to first half of last year.
Management still talking about avoiding discounting to pursue long term sustainable brand image etc etc.
I am happy that the figures have held up this well in the current retail environment - unlike all the other retailers which have all downgraded or missed forecasts.
With the future prospects looking good for ORL, and the potential of a successful o/seas expansion, I am quite happy to continue holding.
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I was a little shocked by the results - I expected ORL to do better but considering the depressed retail environment at the moment, I guess it makes sense. Considering that they opened stores and didn't manage to grow profits is a little concerning. However, their ROE remains high but not quite as high as it was last half year. I expect full year results to be about the same or marginally better considering all of the bad news around at the moment. Time will tell - still holding.
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A little more positivity is found within the finer details of the report. I note that CODB has increased to ~47% up from 41%..although revenue is up despite like-4-like sales being flat. This indicates that management is following through with their statements of avoiding discounting - which I beleive will bode very well for ORL in the medium to longer term. EBIT margins are also slightly up.
Inventory levels of the PRL brand have also been increased. So with inventory levels up and the store refurbishment cycle coming to an end it seems as though expenditure for ORL will be lower in the forthcoming periods..
Cash flow is absolutely excellent once again beating the accounting NPAT - indicating that they probably won't be asking the shareholders for more money anytime soon.
All in all I was disappointed with the flat profit figure but there are positives to take away
A little more positivity is found within the finer details of the report. I note that CODB has increased to ~47% up from 41%..although revenue is up despite like-4-like sales being flat. This indicates that management is following through with their statements of avoiding discounting - which I beleive will bode very well for ORL in the medium to longer term. EBIT margins are also slightly up.
Inventory levels of the PRL brand have also been increased. So with inventory levels up and the store refurbishment cycle coming to an end it seems as though expenditure for ORL will be lower in the forthcoming periods..
Cash flow is absolutely excellent once again beating the accounting NPAT - indicating that they probably won't be asking the shareholders for more money anytime soon.
All in all I was disappointed with the flat profit figure but there are positives to take away
Good summary Valuesnatcher. I bought some ORL today.
A little more positivity is found within the finer details of the report. I note that CODB has increased to ~47% up from 41%..although revenue is up despite like-4-like sales being flat. This indicates that management is following through with their statements of avoiding discounting - which I beleive will bode very well for ORL in the medium to longer term. EBIT margins are also slightly up.
Inventory levels of the PRL brand have also been increased. So with inventory levels up and the store refurbishment cycle coming to an end it seems as though expenditure for ORL will be lower in the forthcoming periods..
Cash flow is absolutely excellent once again beating the accounting NPAT - indicating that they probably won't be asking the shareholders for more money anytime soon.
All in all I was disappointed with the flat profit figure but there are positives to take away
Normally I'd be disappointed to see high inventory levels (means stock is not rotating/ties up capital) but cost of raw materials are rising so it may be a great leveller.
I don't hold - just thought I'd add some insight.
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A little more positivity is found within the finer details of the report. I note that CODB has increased to ~47% up from 41%..although revenue is up despite like-4-like sales being flat. This indicates that management is following through with their statements of avoiding discounting - which I beleive will bode very well for ORL in the medium to longer term. EBIT margins are also slightly up.
Inventory levels of the PRL brand have also been increased. So with inventory levels up and the store refurbishment cycle coming to an end it seems as though expenditure for ORL will be lower in the forthcoming periods..
Cash flow is absolutely excellent once again beating the accounting NPAT - indicating that they probably won't be asking the shareholders for more money anytime soon.
All in all I was disappointed with the flat profit figure but there are positives to take away
You make good points. One thing to note is that at today's price, the dividend yield alone is high enough to hold on to ORL at about 9.3% franked up. Add on top of that the prospect of future growth and I think ORL is trading at a discount to IV. I did have IV at above $10 but now I think it is slightly below $10.
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Yeah I haven't even considered the impact of the dropping share price on the yield, that is quite interesting/a very nice yield even if you are just buying in now...let alone for those of us that got in around ~$6.
Growth prospects do seem good..the only thing clouding my mind is the impact of Japan on the entire Asian region and how it will affect/decrease consumer spending? Also..how long will Australia be expected to stay in such a level of low retail spending? The encouraging thing to remember is that if ORL has managed to perform this well up until now...how well will it go if retail begins to boom again?
Another factor on ORL's side is that they appear to be one of the Aussie retailers that is embracing the online threat and openly talking about it in their reports...unlike some of the others...whether or not the internet is a long term threat to retailers I still see this as a good/innovative move..which seems to represent to me what Sally McDonald offers to shareholders..
Growth prospects do seem good..the only thing clouding my mind is the impact of Japan on the entire Asian region and how it will affect/decrease consumer spending? Also..how long will Australia be expected to stay in such a level of low retail spending? The encouraging thing to remember is that if ORL has managed to perform this well up until now...how well will it go if retail begins to boom again?
Another factor on ORL's side is that they appear to be one of the Aussie retailers that is embracing the online threat and openly talking about it in their reports...unlike some of the others...whether or not the internet is a long term threat to retailers I still see this as a good/innovative move..which seems to represent to me what Sally McDonald offers to shareholders..
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