This was posted in another forum. What do you think wayneL?I am always asked about Oil prices. Here is my prediction as it will affect the market as a Bullish catalyst. Oil prices will fall during the year to $35 and will likely bounce. Expect Volatility. If $35 is penetrated then strong support is at $30. $50 is major resistance here at the beginning of the year.
Here's another interesting quote from an article written Jan 5th 2005.Oil prices have fallen slightly Wednesday despite a rise in crude inventory levels last week. Crude inventory levels fell by 3.3 million barrels, but traders have been encouraged by a rise in distillate and gasoline inventory levels. Of late, oil prices have been fluctuating around the $43 a barrel level. There remain concerns about possible terrorist activity later this month during the Presidential inauguration and the election in Iraq.
wayneL said:Oil seems to have gone off everybodies radar for the moment as the price has eased off. But the long term problems have not gone away as this article points out.
http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/peakoil2014.htm
Cheers
RichKid said:Timely to visit your remarks Wayne! January 2005 was a long time ago now but oil has again taken a breather. When will the speculators move in again and how far will it jump, if at all?
Chart suggests a descending wedge (also known as a bullish wedge), approaching a previous congestion zone, as occurs at previous support/resistance areas, I expect it'll consolidate or bounce off imo. Can't see it falling any lower than 56 (support level) when supply still seems to be low. I've been watching oil and gold recently and have to admit I never expected both to retrace this far so quickly.
wayneL said:However, the commercial gold traders are nett short.
FWIW
wayneL said:RK my analysis:
Oil has been in a deep retracement since August, and in the last couple of sessions has dropped below .618 retracement, but is in a potential support level (monthly fibzone).
But Commitment of Traders Data (COT) is showing that the large commercial oil traders are nett long….and the longest they’ve been in the last 18 months. This is bullish.
The large spec traders are nett short, the shortest they’ve been for 18 months, this is also bullish.
RichKid said:Will post a chart soon with pretty lines and dazzling colours- if I can get it right.
wayneL said:....the large commercial oil traders are nett long….
The large spec traders are nett short, the shortest they’ve been for 18 months,
I haven't done a serious analysis with the numbers but I VERY strongly doubt that it is possible to physically deliver the gas volumes which would be consumed in US/Canada in a normal or cold Winter due to the cumulative production losses in the Gulf of Mexico.doctorj said:Crazy stuff last night. Henry Hub spot gas up more than 20%, New York Gate prices up just a bee's **** short of 40%.
wayneL said:Oh I like those dazzling colours on chartsWill look forward to it.
GLOBAL oil demand could start outstripping supply in the next four years, according to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO).
In Perth yesterday to launch the association's Australian chapter, ASPO president Professor Kjell Aleklett, a Swedish energy expert, said 54 of the 65 major oil-producing countries had already reached their peak production levels.
He warned that supply was likely to be unable to meet demand between 2010 and 2020.
"We think that 2010 is more likely than 2020 but when it comes to planning of energy issues, energy in the future and so on, this is a very short time and we must act now," Aleklett said.
He said four oil fields the size of the North Sea would need to be found for oil production to meet demand in 2025.
"This is just not possible," he said.
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