Oil/gas price discussion

[acouch]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

last chart
have a good evening
ac

 

[acouch]

daily lt.crude chart for those interested.
have a great day
ac

 

[professor_frink]

I moved your other oil charts over to this thread ac so you can find them a little easier in the future

Would be great to see the chart from the 16th updated so we can see how the price interacted with the ML's over the course of the session if you have it

 

[acouch]

to far back now prof.fink i am afraid, as it was the june contract,
and now we have moved into july contract,
and i usually delete all ML's next day..ready to start with a new
canvas
oil has hit 130.50 tonight
enjoy your evening
ac

 

[Tysonboss1]

Crude hitting historic highs folks! Fill up yer jerry cans!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-1CA2-4684-A2C1-CA253B0C50CA}&siteid=mktw

That article is a great flash back,....

whoever thought back in 2004 oil would be trading at $130 within a short few years,..

I remember reading an article in 2003 in BRW mag saying that within months of the invasion of iraq the world would be awash with cheap oil again and oil would rest at a long term price of $35,.... I wonder what the author of theat article is thinking now,...

 

[acouch]

chart might be of interest to some
ac

 

[acouch]

a few nos for interest..
ac

 

[Whiskers]

a few nos for interest..
ac

Hi acouch

From a FA perspective I thinking oil is over-cooked at the moment.

I'm not sure how to use those pitch fork things. How do you see it going?

 

[acouch]

Evening whiskers,

this is eod chart..to me it looks to be going to test higher..
if you look at price it has been supported by its 34 ema..(yellow)
the 34ema atm is sitting at 122.40 ..so price needs to break through that for lower..
my thoughts..
ac

 

[Whiskers]

Evening whiskers,

this is eod chart..to me it looks to be going to test higher..
if you look at price it has been supported by its 34 ema..(yellow)
the 34ema atm is sitting at 122.40 ..so price needs to break through that for lower..
my thoughts..
ac

Acouch, what about those blue lines... are they the pitch fork and do you interpret them as range or trend lines, in which case it's getting a bit toppy?

It just seems to me you use the pitch fork, but I have no real idea how to interpret it. Actually, I've rarely seen it used.

 

[acouch]

morning whiskers,
yes the blue lines are Andrews Medianline (pitchfork)
they have been on the chart since Dec 07, and you can see how
price has follwed it.
for you to learn more on pitchforks go here..

http://www.medianline.com/

ps..they have a 80% chance of being hit

have a great day
ac

 

[Whiskers]

morning whiskers,
yes the blue lines are Andrews Medianline (pitchfork)
they have been on the chart since Dec 07, and you can see how
price has follwed it.
for you to learn more on pitchforks go here..

http://www.medianline.com/

ps..they have a 80% chance of being hit

have a great day
ac

Thanks for that mate.

I had a bit of fun swinging them all over a chart the other day. Looked good, but I had no idea what to do with them. 80% sounds like pretty good odds.

 

[acouch]

good morning,
just thought i would update, eod oil chart
for those interested..
note how the 34ema has supported price once again.
i have also added another Medianline , and as you can see where marked, we
have confluence at 139.63 , once over that then it looks like it
will be after 152.62
have a great day
ac

 

[Sdajii]

WTI bouncing around $70, multiyear high ahead of Trump's decision on the iran deal coming up in the next few hours. Pretty interesting stuff, surprising no one is talking about it here.

 

[Smurf1976]

Also worth noting that the "surplus" of oil above ground has almost entirely been eliminated too.

 

[Sdajii]

True, the reality on the ground is supporting the price at the moment, as well as the politics. Summer driving season is about to kick in while stocks are low. OPEC is possibly going to step in to fill the gap if Iran's contribution is knocked out. Hard to predict exactly what will happen but it's a very interesting time to be watching oil.

 

[Smurf1976]

I have no crystal ball but all things considered, I think there's far more chance of a spike in oil prices than a collapse at this point.

With the above ground surplus gone, it's down to production versus demand. Demand is going up and there seems to be credible threats to production in a few places due simmering conflicts of various natures or economic turmoil.

Whilst it's possible that OPEC members could lose their resolve and ramp up production, to me that seems fairly unlikely given the Saudis are planning to sell part of their national oil company and thus want higher prices and it's going to be hard for the others to do it without Saudi on side.

 

[MacDizzle]

Been a bit of a wild ride in oil the last few weeks, up and down. Just seen today Louisiana sweet nearly fell of a cliff the other day 13% down to $65. I dont know the reasons but if I knew how to trade oil Id think it might have been a bit oversold and perhaps a small opportunity to look into.

Im the same as smurf the Saudis lost a ton of money at the cheap oil prices and have shown a target price they want and russia is o.k with $60 which is still o.k for the all in sustaining costs per barrel of producers . The permian basin has a few issues with gas when drilling(I think) so not a clear sign of immediate over supply U.S shale wise. I'll keep a stop but more upside the downside(potentially-no crystal ball either).

 

[luutzu]

Been a bit of a wild ride in oil the last few weeks, up and down. Just seen today Louisiana sweet nearly fell of a cliff the other day 13% down to $65. I dont know the reasons but if I knew how to trade oil Id think it might have been a bit oversold and perhaps a small opportunity to look into.

Im the same as smurf the Saudis lost a ton of money at the cheap oil prices and have shown a target price they want and russia is o.k with $60 which is still o.k for the all in sustaining costs per barrel of producers . The permian basin has a few issues with gas when drilling(I think) so not a clear sign of immediate over supply U.S shale wise. I'll keep a stop but more upside the downside(potentially-no crystal ball either).

Would be interesting if China goes ahead with its threat to retaliate against US oil it imports.

 

[Smurf1976]

The permian basin has a few issues with gas when drilling(I think)

Natural gas comes up with the oil and the problem is they've just about run out of capacity in the pipelines to take the gas away from the oil fields to somewhere useful (ultimately another US state).

Whilst more pipelines could be built, they're not there right now and that poses a rather big problem in terms of what to do with the gas?

Short term solution is just limit production of gas and thus oil to the capacity of the pipelines.