I have been watching this one over the last few months also. Do you have a set re-entry price?
Gav
I bought NXS today at a low price hoping market will revive next week. One of my colleauges ex stock analyst also bought the same. I followed him as he does a lot of research, unders oil industry like any thing and done some research. I was afraid to ask his reasonings however/
Any one has latest info research on NXS. I probably played a blind today and do not know if it would be a dud
I adore Nexus and have bought a lot of them and reckon the stock is very cheap at present. They have the cash and they have the resources to develop.
They may have cash, but they have no cashflow and also have significant liability. Don't forget that their total current short-term and long-term borrowings via debt financing to test, develop and progress Longtom and Crux are in the range of $200M.
A relatively high-risk O&G play in the current economic climate, but does look to be a little oversold. Then again, many aspiring O&G plays could argue a similar point I suppose.
jman
Good points jman and its good to get your viewpoint.
They have got $240 million in cash and still have the money to come in for selling their stake in Anzon. They do have some cashflow though it is a pittance when compared to the costs needed to develop the oil fields.
It's true that the debt is over $200 million and is expensive and $80 million of it will need to be negotiated later this year in the presently terrible markets. So I agree there is some risk if problems occur with the development but so far the company management have been pretty good at ensuring the company goes forward on a good footing. To me it looks a very good investment.
I think NXS are looking to simply cut their losses with AZA and try and put the whole saga behind them. I saw in the financials that NXS's stake in AZA was partly funded by a $40M credit facility, which is due to expire on the 22nd Oct. From what I can work out, their stake in AZA was built from a combination of on-market purchases (26.8M shares @ $1.70) and a 1:1 swap of 13.6M NXS shares for AZA shares. As NXS have accpeted ROC's terms, it would seem that this investment has deprecciated by the best part of $30-40M(?).
I guess the key with any new company is their ability to deliver and execute projects on time. The delay in processing gas from Longtom will be fairly bitter pill to swallow for all parties. It basically looks like Santos, the owner of the on-shore gas processing plant didn't have the necessary environmental approvals in place... you have to wonder what the combined Santos/Nexus enviro depts were doing at the time.... get up with the play peopleIn all fairness though, it doesn't look like it ws entirely NXS's fault, but a delay is still a delay.
One prospect we have heard very little about recently is Echuca Shoals, I thought NXS were once extremely condifent with this one? The Fossetmaker-1 well delineated an amount of gas equating to around 2Tcf... I'm no expert, but it doesn't sound like a huge volume to me. The Garfish-1 results don't sound like they set exactly set the world on fire either, has this effectively but a lid on potential expansions to Longtom for the time being?
A difficult time for NXS, I really can't see the price going anywhere for a while tbh, I think realsitically we should be happy for it to hold above $1 for the time being.
jman
A difficult time for NXS, I really can't see the price going anywhere for a while tbh, I think realistically we should be happy for it to hold above $1 for the time being. jman
And the deal fell through as you warned jman.
I sold some went they went below $1. Should have sold more.
Yes, this is a crushing blow Knobby either way you look at it. I have held on to my NXS shares through thick and thin, but am now questioning the wisdom of this. Crux will have probably have to be re-rated again in terms of financial and technical risk. Tchacos and DB (Tchacos especially) sound rather bullish re their "Global Search leaving no stone un-turned" approach in finding another farm-in partner, but you have to ask yourself how serious anyone would be in parting with around $300M in the current market meltdown.
At best, I think we may have to consider a reshuffling of the Crux production timetable, at worst this may throw into doubt the entire viability of the Crux project. Scary times indeed.
Damn it!
jman
apart from the day to day turmoil that the whole market faces
nexus have large potentiol but they dont have the cashflow to support developement of their project thus they will need to rely on selling an interest in the crux liquids project to fund ongoing costs
also even after funding issues are resolved actual production could be 3-4 years away and i think that holders have bailed out under present circumstances and the time factor involved with actually getting the project up and running
Unfortunately they are probably 6 months late when it comes to their financial position. Which is real kick in the ****.It made for a good bounce trade on monday from 32c to 50c
First and only purchase/trade in NXS ever, hopefully not the last, so much value everywhere I look
For the last 3yrs I recall alot of analysts likening NXS to the next WPL
Unfortunately they are probably 6 months late when it comes to their financial position. Which is real kick in the ****.
Had they been 6 months ahead, you would be laughing.
Instead, I favour some on the east coast that are already in profit... so at least they are ticking over...
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