NXS - Nexus Energy
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That's my take on it as well,
Imo the company has done well in seemingly resurecting itself from the brink of oblivion, especially when some commentators (and myself) had practically given up on it. I think we will get a clearer idea which way NXS will run during the middle of next week, or perhaps later in the week.
There will be huge numbers of depressed sellers with margin calls and other punters who have simply been waiting to get out for over two months - these people have no interest in seeing NXS progress to the production phase, this is simply dead wood that needs to be flushed from the share registry.
anyway I'm holding to this stock till the production expected on July..
Gonna see what happened then..
but then again the 155M sale due to complete on September 09 ..
really have to wait till end of year to see any significant progress with this company
Gonna see what happened then..
but then again the 155M sale due to complete on September 09 ..
really have to wait till end of year to see any significant progress with this company
I hope not
I think I'll cut my losses on this one on Fridays trading if nothing positive starts to come out.
Does anyone have any idea of the current cash and debt position of Nexus excluding the $A155m transaction with AED?
I think as Jman and others have pointed out, the assets of this company are still quite attractive it’s just the debt hanging over its head & the short term cash flow problems causing short sighted traders to dump the stock and move on. I see ROC exited its position as a substantial shareholder which wouldn’t have helped, but I think this was largely because of two things: 1. it was stated in ROC’s banking covenant that it must sell down its stake in NXS over a certain time frame and 2. ROC needing increased cash flow for operations and debt repayment.
Cash flow from production of 5,000-5,500BOEPD (Net Nexus) around mid July should start to help alleviate some cash flow issues. However Crux and the surrounding exploration upside still seems to be the company’s premier asset. With rising oil prices of late one would think there would be a lot more interest from potential JV partners and at a fairly decent price. Hopefully something comes of this very soon so the project can move out of its current state of limbo.
Also what’s the go with the deal with Shell for block AC/L9? Anyone know the fine detail? From what I understand Shell receives the rights to the gas and any leftover condensate from 2020 onwards. Or does Nexus still retain the rights to the condensate but not the gas?
Also not a bad price they received for a 50% stake in Longtom. I suppose the deal just hinges on AED receiving funding from the banks.
I think as Jman and others have pointed out, the assets of this company are still quite attractive it’s just the debt hanging over its head & the short term cash flow problems causing short sighted traders to dump the stock and move on. I see ROC exited its position as a substantial shareholder which wouldn’t have helped, but I think this was largely because of two things: 1. it was stated in ROC’s banking covenant that it must sell down its stake in NXS over a certain time frame and 2. ROC needing increased cash flow for operations and debt repayment.
Cash flow from production of 5,000-5,500BOEPD (Net Nexus) around mid July should start to help alleviate some cash flow issues. However Crux and the surrounding exploration upside still seems to be the company’s premier asset. With rising oil prices of late one would think there would be a lot more interest from potential JV partners and at a fairly decent price. Hopefully something comes of this very soon so the project can move out of its current state of limbo.
Also what’s the go with the deal with Shell for block AC/L9? Anyone know the fine detail? From what I understand Shell receives the rights to the gas and any leftover condensate from 2020 onwards. Or does Nexus still retain the rights to the condensate but not the gas?
Also not a bad price they received for a 50% stake in Longtom. I suppose the deal just hinges on AED receiving funding from the banks.
if you have a look at aed's past performance it may not neccesarily have a positive outcome for nxs being in joint venture with them
Thanks for the heads up Jackson but if you check out the AED thread you will see I was a sceptic from the start with them and posted my views along those lines. NXS as I would assume would still be the operator of the asset from both a production and technical sense and hence why I would not be concerned with AED as a JV partner. Just more concerned with other areas such as the contract with shell regarding licence AC/L9 and the current cash and debt position of the company.
just putting my two bits in as i was badly burnt with aed and have a relly who has been badly burnt by nxs
these days i am out of speccy stocks completely only stick with the big guns now
I think nexus is actually looking good.
In the short term we can look forward to the resolution of debt and cash flow issues as well as the beginning of production at Longtom. In the longer term the crux project and development of echuca shoals both provide reasons as to why this stock still excites me!
Lets wait and hope!:
In the short term we can look forward to the resolution of debt and cash flow issues as well as the beginning of production at Longtom. In the longer term the crux project and development of echuca shoals both provide reasons as to why this stock still excites me!
Lets wait and hope!
:Anyone see the interview with the MD Ian by corporate profile?
It seems that crux is the main asset for this company, and the Board is trying to avoid "fire sell" of crux. He said Crux reserve is around 3 - 4 times larger than Longtom.
he provide quite a reasonable explanation in relation why did he sell Longtom.
Patterson, on their Jan 09 report, value Longtom @ 257,000,000
50% of that = 128,500,000 ( a premium of $26,500,000 on the sale agreement). But I suspect the value should go up as the time to production nearing, so the sale of $155,000,000 is quite reasonable (not underpriced).
I think the big concern for this one is whether they have the capabilities of developing Crux which I suppose 3-4 times bigger then Longtom.
And also the conditional sale to AED subject to many things (approval of Santos, AED getting its finance finalised, etc).
It seems that crux is the main asset for this company, and the Board is trying to avoid "fire sell" of crux. He said Crux reserve is around 3 - 4 times larger than Longtom.
he provide quite a reasonable explanation in relation why did he sell Longtom.
Patterson, on their Jan 09 report, value Longtom @ 257,000,000
50% of that = 128,500,000 ( a premium of $26,500,000 on the sale agreement). But I suspect the value should go up as the time to production nearing, so the sale of $155,000,000 is quite reasonable (not underpriced).
I think the big concern for this one is whether they have the capabilities of developing Crux which I suppose 3-4 times bigger then Longtom.
And also the conditional sale to AED subject to many things (approval of Santos, AED getting its finance finalised, etc).
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Its good to hear that the company isn't doing capital raising citing that Nexus has a weak share price. Doing a SPP with current share price might decimate it.
Its encouraging to see that there is support still at 30c. Every dog has it day, including a similar company ROC oil (former partner in crime) - which I remembered traded at 30c (now 70c +)
Lets hope a similar fate is in store for Nexus.
Its encouraging to see that there is support still at 30c. Every dog has it day, including a similar company ROC oil (former partner in crime) - which I remembered traded at 30c (now 70c +)
Lets hope a similar fate is in store for Nexus.
"Every dog has it day"
Nexus seemed to have one of those days today!
First real positive sign from the refurbished company. Also the media release today seemed quite positive with immediate focus on Longtom in about a month set to raise the sp nicely
Was a very strong finish on high volume. So if DOW up strongly tonight, I would expect to see further gains tomorrow. Possibility of some takeover interest.
Hope so as I hold
It's taken a little longer than I expected to weed the naysayer's and margin calls from the share registry, but from the last two days action we've clearly seen some buyers with appetite start to emerge. In hindsight, I should have reduced my buy-in average by picking up a handful at $1.30, but I'm still licking my wounds over this one a little, and I can't help but think there will be a few more twists and turns in this story yet. Absolutely key for NXS is to ensure a smooth run-up into production at Longtom, and the completion of the AED sale. Obviously the pending Transocean legal battle remains as a risk for the company.
Jman
Assume you meant to pick up a handful at $0.30 not $1.30? Agree that there are some risks, particularly the ones you mentioned. However, with current price of oil, a fair valuation is upward of 80 cents so still plenty of upside left. I was also hurt by this one. I topped up at 29 cents to average down to 52 cents so still well out of the money.
Agree jman. But as important as those events are I think the major re-rating of this company will come when a JV partner is found for Crux. This is the key to everything nearly. Will oil trading above $US70 for the first time this year, if it continues to rise or hold around these levels I reckon Nexus could have a JV partner by year’s end. This is where the real value of the company lies
ROC’s dumping of huge heap of shares when it came out of the trading holt would have also been a major contributor to the downwards pressure. Now as you say everything seems to be weeded out. I am a big fan of the way management has gone about developing a highly in depth strategic plan over recent months to get the company back on track instead of reverting to what seems to be norm (or the easy way out for management who cannot be bothered to think), which is large, highly dilutive equity raisings.
Yes well picked up,
I meant 30c, not $1.30 which is actually a lot closer to my buy-in price for this one!
. I was never too top-heavy in NXS, but averaging down to 60-70c is something I'd consider atm, as it still looks like a reasonable buying opportunity.
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Hi Stompa
I have read this thread and I would not touch NXS. Sounds like the company is going through the mill. I would do more research, I suspect that asset sales might be fire sale. Maybe it SP price has this factored in, but, its a no from me. Good Luck.
I have read this thread and I would not touch NXS. Sounds like the company is going through the mill. I would do more research, I suspect that asset sales might be fire sale. Maybe it SP price has this factored in, but, its a no from me. Good Luck.
